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Conditional solidarity
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 07 - 2008

With Sudan's president facing charges of genocide, Arab leaders rally behind Khartoum, but not at any price, Dina Ezzat reports
Arab consultations are underway at regional and international levels to save Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir from being confronted with an arrest and trial warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Consultations are based on a nod by Khartoum indicating willingness to cooperate in containing the humanitarian crisis in Darfur and its political implications, which is the root of the problem.
Last week, the ICC's prosecutor-general, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, charged Sudan's president with masterminding a campaign of genocide in Darfur, killing 35,000 people and persecuting 2.5 million refugees. Moreno-Ocampo also charged Al-Bashir with alleged involvement in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.
Moreno-Ocampo asked the ICC to issue an arrest warrant against Al-Bashir, the most senior figure pursued by the court since it started its work in earnest in 2002. The Sudanese leader dismissed the charges and said the ICC had no jurisdiction in Sudan.
International and Arab reactions were apprehensive for the most part while not overlooking the foundation of allegations of human rights violations -- if not on the level charged by the ICC prosecutor-general.
China, a key investor in Sudan's booming oil industry and a top arms supplier for Al-Bashir's regime, also voiced concern. "China expresses grave concern and misgivings about the ICC prosecutor-general's indictment of the Sudanese leader," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said at a regular news conference in Beijing. "The ICC's actions must be beneficial to the stability of the Darfur region and appropriate settlement of the issue, not contrary," Liu said.
At the Arab front, an emergency Arab foreign ministers meeting held Saturday at the request of Khartoum fell short of honouring a Sudanese request for an outright rejection of -- and opposition to -- Moreno-Ocampo's charges. Instead, after five hours of intense deliberations, Arab foreign ministers chose to warn against the consequences of pursuing the indictment, especially with regard to the chances of securing a peaceful settlement to the political conflict between rebels in Darfur and the Khartoum government. It declared the stance of the ICC prosecutor-general "unbalanced".
The ministerial meeting delegated Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa to send a clear message to Khartoum. Arab countries will support Al-Bashir if he demonstrates the necessary flexibility to convince the world, the ICC included, that Khartoum is not covering up major human rights violations in Darfur and will call to account those responsible.
This Arab position, as the resolution of the emergency ministerial meeting detailed, is based on the concern that an ICC decision to issue a warrant against Al-Bashir could lead the Darfur rebels to push the secession of Western Sudan. "Sudan is already confronted with a serious divisionist scenario as the referendum on the continued unity of the north and south of the country approaches with no clear signs that the south would vote for unity. We cannot sit idle and watch the west of Sudan also being incited towards separation," commented a leading Arab official on condition of anonymity.
In Khartoum for extensive talks Sunday and Monday, Moussa reviewed with Al-Bashir and aides a set of political and legal moves to be adopted by Khartoum and the Arab League in cooperation with the African Union (AU) that on Monday rejected the Moreno-Ocampo charges. Moussa also met with AU-UN Joint Special Representative for Darfur Rodolphe Adada, to coordinate cooperation between the Arab, African and international organisations on realising peace and justice in Darfur.
On the political front, the Arab and African organisations would lobby support, especially within the UN Security Council, to "procrastinate" ICC approval of its prosecutor-general's arrest demand. The statute establishing the ICC allows the UN Security Council to pass resolutions deferring for a year the investigation or prosecution of any given case. The council can also renew such resolutions. In parallel, the AU and Arab League would act to speed up political reconciliation between Khartoum and Darfur's rebels.
In the words of one Egyptian diplomat, the reconciliation process has been delayed by the "unjustified support that the Darfur rebels have been getting from certain Western quarters, which had prompted them to make unrealistic demands on wealth and power sharing with the Khartoum regime."
According to the same diplomat, the Moreno-Ocampo charges could only accentuate the "stubbornness of the Darfur rebels" and this might further block political reconciliation. "The important thing now is that the political consultations, which would be conducted in the coming few days, should send a clear message to the rebels that whatever they call for in any future negotiations has to be realistic and that the world is not supporting them right or wrong," the Egyptian diplomat added.
Within the political package supported by Al-Bashir, the Arab League in cooperation with the AU and the UN would call for a regional -- or even international -- reconciliation conference on Darfur with the aim of concluding a peace agreement. "We are asking that the ICC indictment be deferred to give peace a chance," Nigerian Foreign Affairs Ojo Maduekwe told reporters Monday evening following an emergency AU meeting in Addis Ababa.
On the legal front, Al-Bashir's regime has given signal to Arab, African and other leading supporters that it will adopt an Arab League proposal to set up a special independent investigation committee to look into human rights violations in Sudan and "bring to justice all convicted of violations". Justice, however, would be deemed a matter for the Sudanese judiciary and executive authorities, not the international community. Arab and African oversight would be tolerated by the Khartoum regime.
Arab diplomats say that Khartoum has heeded the message of conditional support from Arabs, Africans and others and that it is showing "some flexibility". The issue now is how to get international players to respond positively before the situation worsens.
In a goodwill gesture, Al-Bashir reassured the UN that its peacekeepers stationed in Darfur would be protected. The Sudanese president, however, did not specify how. The UN is aware of the security threats that Moreno-Ocampo's charges could raise for its peacekeepers.
Six days before the ICC prosecutor-general issued his charges, a group of 200 fighters on horseback, supported by more than 40 vehicles with mounted machine guns, carried out the bloodiest and most sophisticated ambush yet on a fledgling UN and African peacekeeping mission. The attack that was conducted 8 July killed seven peacekeepers and wounded 22.
Fighting broke out in Darfur in 2003 when rebels took up arms against the central government, accusing it of discrimination. According to UN assessments and others of reputable international humanitarian and medical organisations, the past five years have been characterised by indiscriminate killing, rape and displacement, mostly against Darfur citizens but not exclusively.


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