What would become of Sudan? Dina Ezzat seeks an answer from concerned officials and interviews Minni Arko Minnawi, a controversial Darfur leader who is now in peace with the challenged regime of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir Holding the warrant Why would Egypt work against the International Criminal Court arresting Sudan's president? Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir is by no means Egypt's best friend. Through his years in office, Al-Bashir has repeatedly antagonised Cairo, mainly due to Sudan's embrace of Islamist-style rule. Adding to the masked tension is Sudan's close association with Iran and Qatar that have both been criticised by Egypt for what Egyptian officials qualify as "unhelpful" regional policies that "aim to undermine Egypt's regional status". However, Cairo is not abandoning Al-Bashir's regime entirely. For Egypt, it is an issue of keeping Sudan stable and unified, as much as possible and for as long as possible. "We are worried about Sudan -- Sudan's stability, peace and territorial unity," said Ahmed Abu Zeid, advisor to the Egyptian foreign minister on Sudan. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly following a high- profile visit by Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman to Khartoum, earlier this week, Abu Zeid said that "Egypt is acting hard and fast to extend maximum support to Sudan in the face of serious challenges." The challenges that Sudan is facing are great. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected "within days", according to an informed source, to issue a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Al-Bashir, along with other Khartoum regime figures, to face charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. This comes at a time where limited Darfur peace talks hosted by Qatar have produced no more than a declaration of intents that is not designed to secure an immediate ceasefire on the ground. Many Darfur rebel groups are still shrugging the Doha deal and some are lobbying Israeli support to push the issuance of the ICC arrest warrant. Meanwhile, harmony is clearly missing in relations between the north and south of Sudan, their present peace deal tested in daily squabbles, including over territories rich with oil. The future for Sudan looks bleak, Arab diplomats in Cairo admit. The arrest of Al-Bashir by the ICC, warned Ahmed bin Helli, Arab League assistant secretary-general, could deliver Sudan unto chaos. To avert this scenario, efforts have been stepped up to convince the permanent members of the UN Security Council to use the council's legal prerogative and suspend the issuance of the arrest warrant for a year in order to allow for a Darfur peace process to conclude successfully with the participation of all rebels. According to Samir Hosni, head of the African Affairs Department at the Arab League, the Arab League and the African Union (AU) are spearheading these efforts in tandem. Informed sources say that the measures demanded by international powers include the firing of certain Sudanese ministers from their cabinet posts, the house arrest of other government officials, the amendment of certain articles of Sudan's penal code to incriminate certain acts that some security officials committed in Darfur, and the improvement of access to international humanitarian aid and security personnel. The regime in Khartoum, sources say, is showing flexibility but is still not fully committed. "The Sudanese president seems to be aware that he is on the eve of a big battle," said one source on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, Arab and African negotiators who worked on previous Sudan peace talk rounds recall the albeit short-lived phase of optimism that prevailed in the wake of the Aboudja peace deal in 2006 and that was interrupted by forces that did not sign the deal. They warn that the chances for the Doha deal to bring about peace on the ground are not exactly any better. According to these negotiators, the only serious answer for Sudan's problems is "a comprehensive peace deal" that includes the regime and all its opposing forces in Darfur, the south and elsewhere. According to one negotiator, "Once a deal is secured its implementation should be monitored by the UN, the AU, the Arab League and Sudan's immediate neighbours [Egypt, Libya, Chad and Ethiopia]." For Egypt, the country that would be worst affected by the nightmare scenario of a chaotic and dysfunctional Sudan, the priority is to suspend the issuance of the ICC arrest warrant. "Egypt cannot allow [anything] to undermine Sudan's sovereignty, stability and territorial unity," said Abul-Gheit following talks with Al-Bashir in Khartoum earlier this week. The question, however, remains whether or not Egypt, or any other active Arab and African player, will be able to spare Al-Bashir in order to spare Sudan.
