What the West hopes to gain by making an example of Radovan Karadzic is hard to decipher, writes Gamal Nkrumah To his staunch supporters in Serbia and Serbian enclaves in the Balkans, Radovan Karadzic is a living symbol of Serbian militancy and national pride. And so was the late Slobodan Milosevic. Critics of Karadzic's indictment and extradition to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) warn that the powers that be in the Serbian capital Belgrade are pursuing political vendettas on behalf of their political backers in the West. Serbia's new ruling clique, they argue, are simply Western stooges. Far from being a viable and vibrant democracy, Belgrade's new rulers have surrendered their country's independence and sovereignty to the West in the desperate hope of being accepted in the West and being eligible to Western handouts. Karadzic's indictment has created an opportunity for vigorous public debate in Serbia and across the Balkans. To many Serbs, the prosecution of Karadzic is a blatant attempt at an international judicial coup, perhaps the most serious political assault on Serbian independence and national sovereignty since the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia and the subsequent indictment and death of the former Serbian strongman Milosevic. That said, the decision of the court at The Hague was not an outright victory for the pro-Western forces in Serbia. Indeed, the sustained popularity of Karadzic among ethnic Serbs is a symptom of something else, and not necessarily sinister: a culture in which nationalism does not equate with disgrace. Meanwhile, the wartime military commander of Karadzic's forces Ratko Mladic remains at large. Moreover, there is evidence that a powerful clique of Serb nationalists had helped hide Karadzic for almost a decade. He does have supporters, and those cannot be easily dismissed as an irrelevant factor in contemporary Serb politics. Undoing the damage, real or imaginary, inflicted by Milosevic and Karadzic can easily degenerate into a harsh and awkward venture. Fighting nationalism in a country that tolerates it is a futile exercise. And if so, Serbia's hottest political issue will inevitably become an international one. Karadzic's case is a test case of Serbia's readiness to embrace Western ideals. Many Serbians are neither surprised nor particularly apprehensive about the indictment of Karadzic. The Bosnian Serb leader, like his political mentor Milosevic, stands in the way of Serbian integration into Europe. His very survival was a chilling reminder of the potential turmoil that could arise from the lack of a stable government in the heart of the Balkans. If there has been some positive impact, it is the promise that Serbia might join the EU in the foreseeable future. This might be a disappointment to militant nationalist Serbs. Political change in Serbia is inescapable, the pro-Westerners who run Serbia today insist. That Belgrade may have fewer political qualms about seeing support for Karadzic as a backdrop for future anti-Western protests comes as no big surprise. The torrent of information about Karadzic is forthcoming. After more than a decade on the run, many mysteries will no doubt be unveiled in due course. The Serbian opposition is not averse to privatisation and economic deregulation. The ICTY extradited Milosevic to The Hague tribunal in 2001. Milosevic, suffering from hypertension and complicated medical ailments, died suddenly in 2006 shortly before a verdict was due to be delivered. Milosevic and Karadzic were indicted for inciting subversion and propagating the notion of a "Greater Serbia". That particular idea is all but dead. Yes, a few ethnic Serbs scattered around the Balkans might harbour such ambitions, but certainly those at the helm in Belgrade and the bulk of the new pro- European Union and Western-oriented Serbian political establishment have discarded any aspirations with regards to Greater Serbia. It is a distant dream that hardliners would have to grapple with. Still, there is the uncanny notion that Serbian public satisfaction with the Milosevic regime was highest in authoritarian Yugoslavia. The power of nationalist fervour to galvanise the Serbs and other ethnic groups in the Balkans cannot be underestimated. Karadzic's indictment is yet another narrow scrape for Western-style democracy in Serbia.
