Olmert's resignation might bring satisfaction to some, but the man waiting in the wings is truly alarming, writes Saleh Al-Naami Despite his many engagements and perpetual busyness, the head of Israel's right-wing opposition, Binyamin Netanyahu, insists on taking Russian language lessons. He does so as one way of securing an overwhelming victory in any early elections that may take place. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has announced his intention to resign following preparatory elections in September to choose his successor as head of the Kadima Party. Olmert was forced into this decision after corruption cases against him came to light, and this has whetted Netanyahu's thirst for power. He knows that learning Russian would allow him to directly address the public of new Russian immigrants who, although they form approximately 20 per cent of Israel's population, are generally not proficient in Hebrew. The new immigrants from Russia and former USSR states are a decisive constituency of support for the right wing in Israel as most adopt extremist positions. Observers in Tel Aviv hold that there are two primary goals Netanyahu seeks to meet in order to prepare the way for his return to power. The first is preventing Olmert's successor as the head of Kadima from forming an alternative government and pushing towards early elections. The second is wresting legitimacy from any political or military step that Olmert takes before leaving his position for good, most likely in November. Since Olmert's surprise announcement, Netanyahu has been witnessing a growing war over succession in the Kadima Party. Even as party leaders hailed Olmert's resignation announcement, they unsheathed swords to use against each other. Although four party leaders are competing for Olmert's succession, the real competition is limited to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. Opinion polls held among Kadima Party supporters show that Livni is slightly ahead of Mofaz, and yet observers hold that it is not unlikely that Mofaz would secure a surprise victory due to his organisational skills and his support team experienced in party activity. It is clear that Olmert's successor as head of Kadima will seek to what Netanyahu fears -- the formation of a new government. Mazal Mualim, the commentator on party affairs for Haaretz newspaper, says that should Livni win her chances of forming a new, alternative government would be very slim. The religious parties, and in particular the Shas Party, would not rush to join a government led by her, if only because she is a woman. The religious parties do not like to position women at the head of governments, and several leaders in the Shas movement have indicated this on more than one occasion. At the same time, Livni's position on the relationship between religion and the state raises reservations among the religious parties. There are also doubts about her ability to manage state affairs under the current security threats, especially as she was a primary partner in the failure of the 2006 war on Lebanon. Mualim points out that if Livni failed to form a government, there would be no way to avoid dissolving the Knesset and calling for new legislative elections. Mualim adds that should Mofaz win, his chances of forming a government are high since he could maintain the ruling coalition in its current form. Mualim explains this as being due to the Shas movement's preference for Mofaz because of his Eastern origins, in addition to his announcement that he is prepared to assist religious and educational institutions in obtaining budgets. And due to his military background, Mofaz is seen by many as qualified to manage state affairs amid all manner of security threats. At first glance, it seems that Netanyahu can breathe a sigh of relief if Livni wins due to her expected inability to form a new government, meaning that new legislative elections would be then unavoidable. Yet in reality, Netanyahu would then face a serious problem, for Livni would form a strong competitor to him in the elections, unlike Mofaz. Although opinion polls conducted have shown that Netanyahu is the most popular Israeli party leader, these same polls indicate that the gap between Livni and Netanyahu is not large. In order to limit the ability of Olmert's successor to form a new government, Netanyahu has clearly announced that his party would not participate in any new government and that he would insist on dissolution of the Knesset and call for new elections. Simultaneously, he began to convince the spiritual leaders of the Shas movement to not agree under any circumstances to join a government formed by Olmert's successor. In order to agree to that, Netanyahu exploited the speech made to the conference of Jerusalem rabbis last Sunday by the founder and leader of the Rabbi movement, Afodia Youssef, who warned that Kadima was preparing to return Jerusalem to "its worst enemies". Yet the challenges facing Netanyahu are not only found in Olmert's successor but in Olmert himself. Netanyahu fears that Olmert might try to take a major political or military step before leaving his post that would affect Netanyahu's chances of winning. Maya Bengal, party affairs correspondent for Maariv newspaper, says that Olmert will strive to gain a preliminary agreement with the Palestinians or the Syrians, or the release of captured soldier Gilad Shalit in a prisoner exchange with Hamas. A strike on Iran cannot be ruled out. Bengal says that Olmert is concerned that history remember him as someone who ended his time in power with a major accomplishment, not as a politician who was removed from power in disgrace. Although from a theoretical perspective Olmert is capable of taking decisions until leaving office, any step he takes in practice will lack legitimacy in the view of the right wing opposition. One issue that Netanyahu will wish Olmert settles before leaving office is the Shalit case. Netanyahu hopes that this case will not persist until upcoming elections. There is no doubt that Netanyahu's expected victory in the upcoming elections would be a slap in the face of the Palestinian Authority's leaders and the political programme of President Mahmoud Abbas. Two years of negotiations and secret communications with the Olmert government produced nothing. Yet Netanyahu's victory would put a definite end to any margin of flexibility that might help Abbas to hold on to his political programme. Netanyahu refuses to discuss any final solution issues with the Palestinians, such as Jerusalem, the refugees and borders. He also strongly rejects the idea of granting the Palestinians any foothold in establishing a state of their own. Indeed, Netanyahu exploits his media skills to incite Israeli fears of such a state. "We will not accept the establishment of a base for extremist Islam only a few hundred meters from Israel's capital, Jerusalem," he said at the conference of the Likud Party he heads. The political formulation Netanyahu sees as appropriate for dealing with the Palestinians is self- autonomy in association with Jordan. Several times recently Netanyahu has shown his enthusiasm for the idea of Jordan assuming administrative authority over Palestinian residential areas in the West Bank while Israel continues to control more than 70 per cent of the West Bank. Yet the greatest challenge facing Palestinians and Arabs is not in the thought of Netanyahu but rather in the nature of the ruling coalition he will lead if he wins. One of Netanyahu's natural partners in the upcoming government will be the extremist right- wing Israel Beiteinu Party led by Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman will insist on holding the post of minister of defence in the any government Netanyahu may head. If that takes place, Palestinians and Arabs in general will face major challenges. Lieberman calls for imposing Jewish sovereignty over Al-Aqsa Mosque and barring Muslims from praying in it. Lieberman has also called for the assassination of all Hamas leaders, the toppling of Hamas, and random bombing of Palestinian residential areas. In the past, Lieberman has had no qualms over calling for the punishment of Egypt by bombing the Aswan High Dam and belittling Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad by bombing the presidential palace in Damascus. Whatever the outcome of domestic Israeli political upheavals, once again the Palestinians and Arabs appear to have misplaced their bets. If Netanyahu thought he might face a unified Palestinian and Arab rejection of his politics he would not have taken the positions he holds. In light of his possible rapid ascent to power, onus is on the Palestinians and Arabs to put their house in order and fast.
