The current Israeli government is too weak to move towards either war or peace, writes Emad Gad* The report just released by Judge Eliyahu Winograd on the performance of the Israeli political and military leadership during the war on Lebanon in July and August last year holds Prime Minister , Defence Minister Amir Peretz and former military Chief of Staff Dan Halutz primarily responsible for the failure of that war to achieve its specified objectives. Much harsher than anticipated, the report essentially charges that the three officials planned the war poorly and managed it disastrously. The Winograd report triggered widespread demonstrations calling for Olmert's resignation, bringing to mind the climate that prevailed in Israel following the October 1973 War. In November of that year, a commission headed by Judge Agranat was formed to probe the Israeli leadership's conduct of that war. Released the following April, it lay the responsibility on the military leadership and, specifically, then chief-of-staff David Elazar and chief of the southern command General Shmuel Gonen. Although the Agranat Commission cleared Prime Minister Golda Meir and Defence Minister Moshe Dayan of responsibility for the "shortcomings" during the war, its report nevertheless triggered an outcry demanding the prime minister's resignation. Meir caved in after 10 days, and was succeeded by Yitzhak Rabin. Today, speculation is rife over whether Olmert will similarly back down from his refusal to resign, and over the future of the ruling coalition, the possibility of early legislative elections and the effect that this internal upheaval will have on the peace process. While the report roundly censured the Israeli leadership, it did not expressly call for anyone's resignation or dismissal. But that did not prevent various parties with an interest in ousting the prime minister, who heads the Kadima Party, and the defence minister, who heads the Labour Party, from going into action. However, while their opinions might converge on who should be ousted, the same cannot be said of their views on who should be brought in to replace them, and on whether or not to hold early elections in light of opinion polls that show rising support for the Likud, headed by former prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Not surprisingly, there is a movement in Kadima to get Olmert to step down as party chief, in the hope of rescuing the party from its drop in popularity and perhaps its ultimate break-up. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who is spearheading this drive, has made no bones of her desire to replace him. Olmert, so far, is sticking to his position. But if he does resign, he wouldn't want Livni to succeed him, on the grounds that she does not have the necessary military and political expertise that the Winograd report says the Israeli leadership should possess. The Labour Party, meanwhile, is gearing up for its internal presidential elections to be held in May, and in which current party chief Peretz will not stand a chance against front runners Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon. Regardless of which of these two win, Labour is almost certain to try to remain in the current ruling coalition for fear of losing its Knesset seats, of which it has 19, to right-wing parties. The new Labour leader is also certain to try to consolidate and expand the party under his leadership, a task which would be impossible if it stays in a government led by Olmert. With only 12 seats, at present, the Likud is at its lowest ebb in the Israeli parliament since 1974. The right-wing party is, naturally, eager for early parliamentary elections because it knows, in light of recent opinion polls, that it will be able to recover a considerable portion of the ground it lost in the Knesset. Peretz's resignation as defence minister is a matter of time. When he does resign, the winner of the Labour Party elections at the end of this month will assume his portfolio. Olmert's party is in a more delicate situation. Kadima was founded only recently around the person of Sharon and a collection of individuals from the religious right, the Likud, the left and Labour. The current outpouring of public anger against Olmert seems to leave the party little choice but to remove him as party leader, in order to avert too disastrous a slide in its share of Knesset seats (currently 29). Some go as far as to predict that the alternative is for the party to shrivel up and dissolve as its principle members abandon ship, or are lured back to their original Likud or Labour affiliations. Other prognoses are not so grim. While some within that party have demanded that Olmert step down as prime minister and party chief, a significant segment of the party's ranks feel that the popular storm has not yet been severe enough to give momentum to an internal uprising against the current party chief. Kadima as a whole, therefore, has decided to continue to back Olmert until circumstances dictate otherwise. Much will depend upon whether or not the next Labour Party chief will be willing to step into Peretz's shoes under Olmert's continued premiership. A negative decision will almost certainly force Olmert to step aside, most likely in favour of Shimon Peres, given Olmert's vehement opposition to Livni as his successor. Kadima leaders also realise that it will not be in the new Labour Party leader's interests to withdraw from the current ruling coalition. After all, such a step would effectively spell the downfall of the current government, since its parliamentary backing would drop to 59 seats -- two down from the minimum 61 seats needed to form a government. In addition, the Meretz Party would not agree to stay on board the current coalition after Labour dropped out, leaving the left-wing party face to face with Likud and figures from the ultra-right, such as Avigdor Lieberman. As for the members from the right, they would prefer to go to early elections anyway in view of their rising stock in public opinion. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that Olmert will stay in power until the results of the forthcoming Labour Party elections, the victor of which will probably have the greatest say in whether Olmert stays or leaves. Simultaneously, both Labour and Kadima will resist pressures to bring legislative elections forward. Nor should we rule out the possibility of Olmert's embarking on some military adventure, in the hope of resuscitating the damaged prestige of the Israeli army and refuting the Winograd's charges of incompetence. The prospect of such an adventure is all the more alarming in view of the likelihood that Olmert will order the Israeli army to unleash its venom fully in order to ensure the victory that he needs to revive confidence in his leadership. The more pessimistic foresee an imminent full- scale assault on Gaza or aerial strikes escalating into a major offensive against Syria. The majority of Kadima's rank and file, however, would like to see some significant progress in the peace process. They believe that a success in this direction would secure higher popularity ratings for the party since, according to polls, approximately 60 per cent of Israelis support a favourable response to the Arab peace initiative and withdrawal to the pre-June 1967 boundaries in exchange for full normalisation of relations with the Arabs. What seems certain at the moment is that the current government is, at present, too weak to take any major steps, whether towards war or peace, which means that in the short term, such questions, too, rest on the outcome of the Labour Party elections at the end of this month. * The writer is editor-in-chief of Mokhtarat Israelia [Israeli Selections], a monthly journal published by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, and secretary-general of the non-governmental Arabs Against Discrimination.
