Progress in Iraq is more mirage than reality, writes Salah Hemeid* The UN Security Council passed unanimously resolution 1835, calling on Iran to stop enriching uranium. The resolution was a disappointment to the US administration, which had hoped to impose new sanctions on Iran, but had to accommodate the Russians. The latter had made it clear that they would not allow any further sanctions against Iran. Unwilling to antagonise the Americans, the Russians have opted for a middle course on the Iranian crisis -- verbal admonishment but no sanctions. Moscow is not just doing that to teach Washington a lesson. It has a genuine interest in keeping friendly with the Iranians. Since Tsarist times, the Russians thought of the world as a contest between sea power, or thalassocratia, and land power, or tellurocratia. The Russians were masters on land, the British at sea. It was a simple arrangement that remained valid for most of the 19th century and part of the 20th, well into Soviet times. If the Russians play their cards right, they may once again be masters on land, but first they have to forge alliances far into the landmass surrounding their country. Moscow is hoping to lead Eurasia into the glory of decades past, and their vision for the future is one in which Iran fits only too well. Think Eurasia. The landmass surrounding Russia can give it the kind of edge it needs for global supremacy. So far, Russian diplomacy has confined itself to obstructing US policy in various parts of the world. But it is in Eurasia that Moscow's destiny is waiting to unfold. This may explain the attitude of the Russians during the recent war in Georgia, and also the stringent Russian opposition to the deployment of US missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. From Moscow's point of view, the Americans are trying to contain Russia within its borders and frustrate its evolution into the leading land power in the Caucasus. For Russia's geopolitical aspirations to materialise, Moscow would need to form new geopolitical alliances in all directions: with Berlin to the West, Beijing to the East, and Tehran to the south. Each of these alliances boosts Russian manoeuvrability as a land power. Seen this way, one can appreciate the importance of Iran. It gives Russia an outlet to warm waters via the Gulf, a dream that has tantalised the Russian imagination for centuries. The Kremlin may have lost the leverage it used to have in the bipolar world of years past, but old ambitions are diehard. Russia is now turning to a new geopolitical game. Instead of leading a coalition of Asian and European nations, as it did in Soviet times, Moscow is trying to find allies and create buffer zones in strategic areas. Since Putin first rose to power in 2000, Moscow has been rethinking its alliances. It now has China and India to count on, and Iran is next. Both Putin and Medvedev have been busy creating buffer zones, establishing realms of influence, and thinking of ways to keep the Americans off their turf. For all the similarity in geopolitical attitude between Soviet times and today's Russia, there are some differences. One is that Russia is no longer interested in fighting proxy wars against Washington in the Middle East. Also, today's Russia is selling arms for hard cash and with less ideological pretences than the Soviets used to do. Also, Russia is wary of the spread of terrorism into Central Asia and the Caucasus. On all of those levels, Iran can prove to be a useful ally. During the Cold War, the US used Iran and Turkey to deny the Russians access to the warm waters of the Gulf and the Mediterranean. When Egypt finally bailed out of the Soviet realm in the 1970s, the Russians felt the loss: the Americans had Ankara, Tehran and Cairo on their side. It is such memories that shape Russian policy on Tehran. For now, Moscow is trying to ingratiate itself to the Iranians by suggesting that they enrich uranium on Russian soil. The Russians don't want to see Tehran and Washington reconciled. They are happy with things the way they are. For now, Russia is going to help the Americans a little and the Iranians a little. This double-edged game is what resolution 1835 is all about. * The writer is director of Al-Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies.
