With international sanctions passed and domestic elections lost, Iran's hard-line conservatives are on the back foot as 2007 opens, writes Rasha Saad As the year 2006 drew to an end, the Iranian regime faced a blow on both the foreign and domestic levels. On Saturday, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to impose sanctions on Iran. The sanctions will include trade in sensitive nuclear materials and technology. The vote came after world powers failed to reach consensus on how to deal with Iran's nuclear file for nearly a year. Iran's reaction was defiant. The Islamic Republic immediately condemned the resolution as illegal and said it would not affect its peaceful nuclear activities. "Our immediate response to the UN Security Council is that, as of today, we will start the activities at the site of the 3,000 centrifuge machines in Natanz and we will go ahead with full speed," said Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened to reconsider relations with countries that support the sanctions. Throughout 2006 both Russia and China succeeded in blocking any resolution against Iran. Both countries called several times for amendments to a draft resolution on Iran. On Saturday, only after parts of the resolution were watered down, both Russia and China backed sanctions. Statements by Russian and Chinese officials imply that their consent is the result of US-EU yearlong pressure to pass a resolution. Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN ambassador, said after Saturday's meeting that "Russia made every effort in its contacts both with the Iranian side and its partners among the six powers and the Security Council so that the Iranian nuclear problem could be solved without resorting to sanctions. Unfortunately, we could not achieve that." Churkin called the sanctions "the most extreme instrument in the international diplomacy's arsenal." The resolution is passed under provision of Chapter 7, Article 41 of the UN Charter, which makes enforcement mandatory but restricts action to non-military measures. Churkin emphasised this last point. The resolution demands Iran end all research on uranium enrichment, which can produce fuel for nuclear power plants as well as for bombs, and halt all research and development on methods of producing or delivering atomic weapons. The thrust of the sanctions resolution is a ban on imports and exports of dangerous materials and technology related to uranium enrichment, reprocessing and heavy water reactors, as well as ballistic missile delivery systems. Equipment for light water reactors is not included, nor is low enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel elements. This exempts an $800 million light water reactor Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr. The resolution is less restrictive than the original draft, drawn up by Britain, France and Germany, due principally to Russian objections. A ban on Iran's oil exports was not considered. The resolution includes a freeze on financial assets abroad of 12 individuals and 10 organisations from Iran associated with its nuclear programme to prevent them from acquiring key materials. But there are numerous qualifications, including exempting contracts made prior to the adoption of the resolution. Russia also succeeded at the last moment to delete from the resolution Iran's Aerospace Industries Organisation, which produces missiles, but nonetheless left three of its subsidiaries on the list. Russia was also successful in scrapping a mandatory travel ban. Instead, the resolution now calls on states to notify a Security Council sanctions committee if any of the individuals on the list are in their countries. The resolution also stipulates that restrictions would be suspended if Iran suspends its enrichment work and rejoins negotiations. They would be lifted if Iran fully complies with Security Council resolutions and directives from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The US, however, appears set on an even broader diplomatic offensive against Iran during 2007. US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns admitted that the US would like to see "a more vigorous national and multilateral action against Iran" that includes stronger sanctions, if necessary outside the Security Council, and would push countries to stop doing business with Iran. "We are certainly not going to put all of our eggs in the UN basket. We are going to try to convince other countries -- especially the European Union countries and Japan -- to consider some of the financial measures that we have undertaken," said Burns. Burns recalled that the United States has enforced sanctions against Iran for 27 years. "There is not much more we can do on our own because we have full scope sanctions on Iran in every conceivable area," he said. "We would like countries to stop selling arms to Iran. We would like countries to try to limit export credits to Iran," Burns said, adding that about 10 European countries had substantial export credits to Iran. The US also seems bent on intensifying pressure to convince private banks to stop dealing with Iran under the argument that Iran has begun to "launder its money through some of these financial institutions, without the knowledge of the institutions, to arm and finance Hizbullah and Hamas and other terrorist organisations." During the last months 2006, Credit Suisse, Credit Lyonnais and HSBC have all stopped lending to Iran. It is expected that other international lending institutions and private banks will follow suit in 2007. The possibility for a dialogue, however, is still open between Iran and European countries. Unlike the US, Britain, France and Germany, sponsors of the resolution, urged Iran to return to negotiations, initiated between the two sides in 2004 and halted in early 2006. "I call on the Iranian authorities to choose dialogue and to come back to the negotiating table," French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said in a statement following the Security Council meeting. Iran might find itself pushed to return to the negotiating table as a way to counterweight US endeavours to isolate Iran. In 2007, according to analysts, Iran will likely seek to strengthen its relations with Russia and China and improve relations with Turkey, Pakistan and India as a way to alleviate the consequences of sanctions. Indeed, "new alliances" is expected to be a keyword in Iran following the blow directed to President Ahmadinejad and his supporters last week in their first test of public support. Allies of Ahmadinejad won fewer than 10 seats nationwide in local government elections and lost the presidency of the powerful Assembly of Experts to moderate Hashemi Rafsanjani. According to Mohamed Al-Saeed Abdul Momen, professor of Iranian studies at Ain Shams University in Egypt, the coming year will witness a division within Iran's conservatives between ultra conservatives loyal to strict interpretations of the Islamic Revolution led by Ahmadinejad and a more moderate group led by Rafsanjani and his supporters. The new alliance between moderate conservatives and reformists, who won most of the seats in local elections, is according to Abdul Momen likely to continue in other aspects during the coming year. "The fact that the influential Assembly of Experts and local governments are now ruled by an alliance of moderates and reformists means that the coming year will witness a moderate policies from Iran, away from Ahmadinejad's 2006 hard-line policies," argues Abdel Momen. It is expected during the coming year that Iran's government will pay more attention to improving standards of living, focusing on new economic projects. The setback to President Ahmadinejad during the recent elections is believed to have been due partially to his government's failure to accomplish its promises of more wealth and development. Iranians complain that a deterioration in industry, inflation and spreading poverty, characterise Ahmadinejad's rule. "In the coming year each political camp in Iran will be revisiting its own strategies in preparation for coming parliamentary and presidential elections due in the following year," Abdel Momen told Al-Ahram Weekly.
