The passing of one bleak year heralds a bleaker year to come, writes Assem El-Kersh Nothing -- certainly not the habitual presumption of good intentions or clinging to straws of hope that mark the beginning of each new year -- provides a reason to be optimistic for 2009. The nightmarish year to which we just bid farewell signalled with its latest stressful test of Egypt's north eastern borders another Arab tribulation. The new regional ordeal was engulfed with futile wars of words, a horrendous rift, massacres to add to the already blood-soaked record along with an illusory peace process that no one cares to see to its grave, unexamined accusations hurtling and the outpourings of wretched and impotent anger at this week's storms of vengeance and terror unleashed by Israel on Gaza. The blood spill exposed a tattered Arab reality, underscoring skewed balances of power and providing a final, disgusting touch to a nasty year. The picture could not be more grim. It almost seems pointless to waste any energy predicting what 2009 will be like since 2008 has left enough fallout to last through the entire 12 months and beyond. Here in the region, and in the rest of the world, we will still be dealing with the broken promise of "peace", which has almost become a bad word, and with the repercussions of the global financial crisis which has only begun to wreak its havoc. There will be hopes pinned, rightfully or wrongfully, on the new American president, Barack Obama, and ongoing questions regarding the challenges that Egypt will face throughout the year, the price that will be exacted for its history and geographical position, its destiny and its moral choices, as it continues to try to disentangle the complex knot binding Israel, Iran, Syria, Hamas, and so on, even as it strives to tackle the more important priority of providing a dignified life for its own people. The passing year seemed to condense the spirit of earlier harsh years. The same melancholy ingredients were there aplenty: the grief, the many disasters and defeats, the few moments of happiness and bitter victories for the Arabs and other weak and marginalised peoples. In Egypt, in particular, there were outbursts of resentment, some heavy doses of violence, a smattering of scandals and titillating crimes. They were mixed with understandable disappointment at a reform process that is not moving in the direction or at the pace many want, at ministries and officials who repeat the same mistakes at every turn, at an opposition that sees nothing but black, political parties drowning in internal power struggles and newspapers obsessed with settling scores and petty feuds. Elsewhere the story of human folly plodded on, in the form of foolish battles of will (between Russia and Georgia, for example), or maniacal tribal conflicts ending in slaughter and the displacement of thousands, as occurred in Kenya, the Congo, and Comoros Islands. Against all this came fleeting moments of happiness. Millions around the world rejoiced at Obama's presidential victory, cheered at the famous shoes thrown at Bush, thrilled to the amazing spectacle of the Olympics in Beijing (from which Egypt emerged with a sole medal and a sporting scandal that was never seriously dealt with). But these brief moments were offset by terrible waves of anguish, as occurred in the wake of the rockslide in Dweiqa in the heart of Cairo, burying dozens alive, and after the explosions in Mumbai which drove home the point that terrorism is still alive and kicking, regardless of all the attempts to end it and which was dubbed by many as a form of punishment against India for its success in joining the club of the mighty in the world. Yes, 2008 has proved yet again that there is nothing new under the sun and that human beings are forever the same, a rat-bag of faults, weaknesses and absurdities. The year may have ended with a "leap-second" so that the world's clock could catch up with the rotation of the earth. Yet, solution of the world's political, economic, environmental and social problems, however, remains light years away. The next 12 months will put many to the test as we plough through the unfinished chapters of a year in which the Arab world was rift by divisions between "revolutionaries" and "moderates", gripped by the chaos of the fight for leadership and influence and in which oil prices took an unprecedented plunge, placing an unexpected crunch on the budgets and ambitions of oil exporting nations and proving that what goes up must come down. 2008 turned out to be the year the capitalist order was rocked to its core, opening people's eyes, if somewhat late in the day, to the fact that the Western model of the market economy is not foolproof and that the state still has a major role to play. It will soon become clear whether the major powers, and the rest of the world, have learned their lessons and can steer us clear of the worst of the storm. More important for Egyptians, the new year will give them the chance to judge how skilful their government is at seizing opportunity in the midst of crises, as it has promised to do. 2009 will also give them another glimpse of the brutal face of globalisation and the price they have to pay for being interconnected with the world. Open windows may admit some refreshing breezes but they can also let in storms. 2008 was the year of futile war in Afghanistan. The Taliban continues to resist and the West still cannot secure control over that rugged country. It was the year of the bloody Russian-Georgian facedown, in which Moscow demonstrated that it still has the final say over what goes on in its former "Soviet" backyard. It was also the year of the pirate, the seizing of cargo ships off the coast of Somalia, of power in Mauritania and then Guinea only days before the year ended. (Is it a coincidence that all these incidents happened in poor, benighted Africa?). In Egypt, as the year ground to a halt, there were other reasons for discontent besides events in Gaza. On countless occasions demonstrators took to the street to protest prices, teachers' treatment of the pupils placed in their care, snaking bread lines, a US-biased foreign policy. The tools of protest ranged from microphones and placards on the stairs fronting the Journalists' Syndicate building to graffiti on the digital walls of "Facebook", taking in along the way stone-throwing and tyre-burning by the unemployed and desperate during the spinning and weaving workers' strikes in Mahala Al-Kubra last April. 2008 was also the year of debates over the seduction of power and money, the contents of the first aid kit all cars must carry under the new traffic law. Debate also raged over a pay rise for government employees immediately swallowed by galloping inflation, over how we have come to perceive some teachers, police officers and businessmen as people who settle their scores in their own way, with fists, sticks and guns. Hardly surprising, then, that the year saw yet more practices joining the growing list of paradoxes arising from social decay and declining social mores, "wife- swapping" being the latest addition to the Egyptian lexicon. There was also the disturbing incident of parents purchasing purloined copies of the secondary school exams their children were due to sit, adding a new twist to the concept of moral guidance. Perhaps the most important and the most difficult test Egypt will have to pass in the coming year, though, is if, after 12 months, it can answer in the affirmative the following question: Will Egyptians, at the end of 2009, however trying the year may be and whatever ills it may bring, be less protesting, less violent, less slackening, less sceptical, less backward moving and more content, more supportive of one another, more productive, more positive, more successful and, above all, happier?
