Who won and who lost in Israel's brutal war on Gaza, and what lies ahead now? Saleh Al-Naami explores possibilities When 13-year-old Amira Al-Qarm came out of a three-day coma her first words were, "I want to blow myself up, to take away as many of them as I can." She was referring to Israeli soldiers. Now recovering in Dar Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, Amira watched as occupation soldiers killed her father, Fathi, and two brothers, Alaa and Esmat, in their home in the Tel Al-Hawa district in southwest Gaza City. Upon hearing the translation of her words, the foreign doctor who was supervising Amira's treatment remarked that her story furnishes proof that the Israeli massacres in Gaza were counterproductive. Israeli violence only made the current generation of Palestinians more determined to resist. Over 1,400 Palestinians have been killed, including 400 children, and 5,500 injured, maimed and deformed, including 1,900 children. Israel says that 10 soldiers and three civilians were killed. Such scenes against the backdrop of the ceasefire that came into effect Sunday -- after three bloody weeks that took the region by storm -- cast to the fore numerous questions. Primary among them is how long the eerie quiet will hold, and more importantly how the military campaign against Gaza has affected the resistance and Palestinian national dialogue. Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, told Al-Ahram Weekly that the ceasefire and any possible truce are contingent upon whether the conditions of the Palestinian resistance factions are met. These are: lifting the blockade and reopening all border crossings, specifically Rafah. The resistance, he said, "will not cease in its efforts to obtain arms by all possible means, since this is the right of the resistance". Abu Obeida asserts that Israel failed to achieve any of its declared objectives, namely to end rocket fire from Gaza and to revive its power of military deterrence. Proof of these failures, he said, is the fact that the Palestinian resistance kept up its missile fire until the very last moment, adding that he expects Israel and Egypt to arrive at a formula that will meet the Palestinian factions' conditions. Wednesday morning, the Israeli occupation forces completed their withdrawal from Gaza, meeting the first demand of Hamas in reciprocation of Israel's unilateral ceasefire. One wonders whether the achievements claimed by the Qassam Brigades spokesman equal the huge number of casualties and the massive destruction of infrastructure and people's homes. Abu Obeida acknowledges that the Palestinian "civilian depth" received a powerful blow and that the Palestinian people paid a very heavy tax. On the other hand, he said, even though it unleashed its full range of modern weaponry against Gaza, Israel was forced to realise that it could not impose its dictates on the resistance in Gaza and that any attempt to force the resistance into making concessions would draw it into a major confrontation that would be risky for Israel. He added that the resistance movements learned many lessons from the offensive and that these would help it to significantly improve its performance in the future. He insisted that the resistance also gained strength from the enormous popular backing it received from the Arab and Islamic peoples, testified by popular demonstrations that took place throughout the Arab and Islamic world in protest against Israel's brutality and in support of the Palestinian right to resist. He is further convinced that Israeli war crimes in Gaza will lead to the opening of new fronts for resistance from directions Israel had not anticipated. Turning to the prospects of resuming inter- Palestinian dialogue and reaching national reconciliation, head of the Hamas parliamentary bloc Yehia Moussa believes that the outcome of the war on Gaza will strengthen opportunities for reconciliation. Moussa added that he knows that Israel will continue to pressure Abbas against reconciliation, but that the more that Abbas accedes to Israel's demands the less legitimacy he will have, even within his own Fatah Party. Indeed, there does appear to be a growing tide of opposition to Abbas within Fatah in the wake of the Gaza war. Some Fatah officials have begun to publicly demand the Palestinian president take "sincere" steps towards unity, with some urging him to dismiss the group of advisors around him bent on frustrating reconciliation efforts. One of these is Akram Al-Aidi, the Fatah official in charge of mass action in the West Bank, who appealed to Abbas to undertake "a series of measures to clear up the internal climate and to bring about reconciliation and national unity, foremost among which is to dismiss those individuals who have contributed to thwarting unification efforts." In fact, Al-Aidi advised those officials to distance themselves from the political scene on their own accord "because the Palestinian people have not forgotten and will not forget their bickering in the media and the way they washed their dirty laundry over the satellite channels." He continued, "It is time for the rational people in Fatah, with their sensible voices and ardent consciences, to assume the lead in the forthcoming phase. They have not been tainted by the previous painful phase and now must stand up against all those who have obstructed the path to national reconciliation, did not raise a finger to help lift the blockade, and poisoned the internal Palestinian climate, spreading a culture of hatred within the ranks of a single people." Palestinian commentator Mamoun Basisu believes that the tentative parallel reconciliation between Arab leaders who assembled in Kuwait for the Arab development summit will promote resumption of Palestinian national dialogue. In his opinion, one of the most formidable obstacles to those efforts had been the intervention of certain Arab parties aiming to steer dialogue in a way that would lead to the downfall of Hamas in Gaza. Now, "the Arab regimes opposed to Hamas have reached the conviction that it is impossible to get around Hamas, especially following Israel's failure to bring about the collapse of this movement during its recent campaign." And in Israel, it is also reassessment time. In an article appearing in Yediot Aharonot, military commentator Ron Ben Yashai wrote that Israel clearly failed to achieve its major declared objective from the war, namely to change the security environment in the south of Israel. That Hamas continued to fire rockets deep into Israel even after Olmert declared a ceasefire confirms this failure, and he cautioned against the danger claims by Olmert and Minister of Defence Ehud Barak to the contrary. Jacky Kochi, Arab affairs commentator for Maarev, is of a similar opinion. Israel failed to achieve an image of victory in the battle of Gaza and all that remains of that war is the image of dead women and children, he wrote. "During the last three weeks, television screens across the world were filled with daily documentation of children with their limbs shattered, bleeding women screaming and wailing, and infants in the morgues. These are the images that will be remembered by millions around the world, creating hard tangible testimony to the insensitivity of the Israeli army. No one will be convinced that this campaign was meant to defend children in the south of Israel. Everyone will be wondering how the IDF imagined that it could defend children in the south by killing children in Gaza." (see pp.2,5-7,10-12)
