Just as the world believes Iraq is returning to peace, new wars are threatening the country, says Salah Hemeid After last month's provisional elections, widely hailed as peaceful and democratic, the United States and the Iraqi government sounded upbeat and congratulated Iraqis that political stability is finally back on track in their war-torn nation. Many foreign governments also shared that optimism. Yet, with recurring violence, including bombings and attacks, allegations of fraud in polling and political infighting, the times seem as troublesome as ever. While the vote was pretty much free of violence, the following weeks witnessed increasing instability. Dozens of Iraqis were killed and scores other wounded in a spate of sectarian attacks that included bombings of Shia pilgrims who were making their way to a religious festival in Karbala. Iraqi soldiers were again under attacks and several people including a number of candidates were assassinated. With all this bad news, it is even conceivable that Iraq could be heading for another meltdown ahead of a crucial general election later this year. On Sunday, the government disclosed that Mohamed Al-Daini, a Sunni Arab lawmaker, was involved in a series of terrorist attacks that include a 2007 suicide blast inside the parliament building. In tapes released by the Iraqi Interior Ministry, two former bodyguards of Al-Daini, one of them his nephew, detailed a nearly three-year trail of bloodshed and atrocities they allege was masterminded by the former Baathist, including burying alive more than 100 people in an act of revenge. Al-Daini, who stays at a hotel in the American-controlled Green Zone, was effectively placed under house arrest. Police surrounded his home in western Baghdad and confiscated weapons, explosives and other items. He rejected the allegations as "untrue and baseless" and suggested it was political punishment for standing up to the Shia-led government and Iran's growing influence in the country. The next day the Ministry of Interior announced that 12 policemen, mostly Shias, were arrested for allegedly supporting sectarian violence in Iraq. Iraqi officials said they are believed to be behind the 2006 killing of many people, including the sister of Tariq Al-Hashemi, a Sunni who is one of Iraq's two vice-presidents. The arrests highlight the never ending Shia- Sunni divide and attempts to score points before the parliamentary elections in December. The other bad news is that Iraq's sectarian and ethnic groups seem to be further divided, mainly over power sharing. Since results of the local elections were made public, different trends and realignments have been taking place within Shia and Sunni groups. The Iraqi parliament has been paralysed by a fight over who should be the next speaker after the former speaker Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani was forced to step down after a quarrel. There are reports that Al-Maliki's Al-Daawa Party and their allies are blocking efforts to elect a new speaker for fear that their opponents will gather enough parliamentary votes to force a non-confidence vote in Nuri Al-Maliki's government. Meanwhile, the crisis between the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki and the Kurds, the closest US allies in Iraq, is deepening. Last week, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani warned that if the Arab-Kurdish disputes remain after the US leaves, "it will be war between both sides." The Kurds feel threatened by Al-Maliki's recent efforts to extend the power of the Arab-dominated central government which they fear will come at the expense of their autonomous region. The dispute between the two groups is multifaceted; one of the major flashpoints is the status of Kirkuk, an area that contains 13 per cent of Iraq's proven oil reserves. The Kurds believe Kirkuk and areas in two other provinces, Mosul and Diyala, should be part of their autonomous region in the north. But that position has caused serious friction with Baghdad, including a government decision to send in new, mostly Arab troops to the Kirkuk area last month. Indeed, the conflict is coming to a head now because a resurgent Iraqi army is beginning to contest control of these areas, which Kurds captured when Saddam Hussein fell in 2003. Friction between Arab soldiers on outposts in these areas has increased recently, and in many parts of northern Iraq Arabs and Kurds seem on the verge of open fighting over territory. The possibility of renewed fighting would seriously destabilise the country as it begins to recover from the US occupation and the Sunni-Shia civil war of 2005-2007. There are other reasons for concern, especially growing political infighting in Iraqi Kurdistan. The deputy leader of President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has submitted his resignation along with several other senior officials, throwing the group into turmoil ahead of regional elections in May. The group is one of two main parties dominating the government in Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region and an intra-party fight could damage Kurdish unity during a particularly delicate time. The party infighting began when PUK's deputy secretary-general, Kosrat Rasoul, and several other top members resigned because they were upset with corruption within the PUK and Talabani's family, the distribution of party positions and the existence of independent security bodies run by Talabani's sons. The dispute was triggered when Talabani moved to expel PUK co-founder Nosherwan Mustafa from the party after he made plans to establish an independent list of candidates to run in the regional parliamentary elections. Talabani's plan upset Rasoul and his comrades, who submitted their resignation. The resignation raised tension in the PUK-dominated city of Sulaimaniyah, and forces and bodyguards loyal to each group are on the verge of open warfare. The infighting within PUK has highlighted problems within the other main Kurdish party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani who is also accused of running the party through family hegemony, power and privilege. There is growing concern that Barzani's party is heading towards a similar rebellion as Kurds in KDP-controlled areas feel they are being pushed towards a deadlock with the absence of democratic participation and opposition, and Kurdish self-rule being transformed into extended family businesses. Finally, the planned US troop withdrawal from cities by June and full withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2011, under the security agreement signed last year, provokes fears of chaos. The Obama administration has indicated it plans to leave Iraq even earlier than scheduled, which raises the question of whether the fledgling state can finally stand up for itself if abandoned by the US. American troops in Iraq are beginning to pull back from bases and outposts that were linchpins in the US surge that helped reduce violence, prevent a civil war and allow peaceful elections. The American military has already begun testing exit routes through Jordan, Kuwait and Turkey to get millions of tons of supplies out of Iraq. They have also handed over many of the bases they have been using since their 2003 invasion to Iraqis. But after nearly six years of US occupation, Iraq seems to be beset by feuding even deeper than the sectarian and ethnic divide unleashed by the invaders.
