President Obama's first encounter with Iraqis looks eerily like his predecessor's visits, argues Saif Nasrawi Like Bush, Obama's surprise visit on Tuesday to Baghdad was veiled with utmost secrecy and his aides only disclosed its details after Air Force One landed at Baghdad International Airport coming from Istanbul, Obama's last stop on his first major international tour. The US president's security team also advised him against travelling by motorcade into Baghdad's highly protected Green Zone, although he was briefed by top US commanders in Iraq that violence was at its lowest level since 2003. Instead, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani went to the US military base of Camp Victory for talks with Obama. Apart from logistics, Obama's visit to Baghdad reaffirmed two important objectives in Washington's new strategy towards Iraq: the need for greater national reconciliation and the end of the combat mission by next year. "It is time for us to transition to the Iraqis. They need to take responsibility for their country... In order to do that they need to make political accommodations," Obama told some 1,500 troops at the Camp Victory US military base outside Baghdad.Obama reassured US forces in Iraq that his administration is committed to withdraw all its combat troops by the end of August 2010 and other forces by the end of 2011. However, he voiced concern that parliamentary elections late this year could bring unresolved political issues "to a head" in a country that is only slowly emerging from years of sectarian violence in which tens of thousands died. Obama's visit came amid intense security and political developments in Iraq, many fear that they could unravel the fragile stability achieved by the surge. Iraqi political factions are far from reaching compromise over the fundamentals of political power sharing and the equal distribution of oil revenues among the country's largest ethnic and sectarian groups. Al-Maliki's Shia-led government had recently given contradictory signs towards its declared goal of pushing forward the project of national reconciliation. Last month, the Iraqi premier expressed willingness to include all Saddam Hussein's former ruling Baathists "whose hands are not stained with Iraqi blood" into the political process. The calls for integrating the "non-violent" remnants of the Baath Party did not go unchallenged from both Shia and Sunni forces. As if to prove their point, only a few hours before Obama's arrival in Iraq, a former top deputy of Saddam Hussein said he wants good ties with the United States, but only after US troops leave and the Shia-led government is toppled. Ezzat Ibrahim Al-Douri, who is now reportedly a powerful funder of Sunni insurgents in Iraq, spoke in an audiotape broadcast Tuesday on Al-Jazeera television. Douri, a fugitive with a $10 million bounty on his head, has not been seen in public since the fall of Saddam's regime in April 2003. His words coincide with a spike in violence in Iraq that the government has blamed on members of both the Baath Party and Al-Qaeda. In the audiotape, Douri urges his followers to topple the government of Al-Maliki after the expected US withdrawal from the country. "Fight them with all possible means in your field of jihad," Douri said. He said Al-Maliki's government is in its "last gasps". After Al-Maliki's fall, a new Iraqi government will be ready to "build the best of relations with the American people and the new administration" of Obama, Douri said. Saddam's former deputy has vowed that loyalists to the deposed dictator will continue fighting until the US withdraws from Iraq, according to an interview published Monday. Douri, whose whereabouts is unknown, is believed to play an important role in financing Sunni insurgents, though little is known to what extent he leads fighters on the ground. Leaving aside the threat that Douri poses, Iraqi politicians and experts believe that their war-torn nation won't be stabilised before major domestic and regional issues are resolved. They blame Iraq's neighbours for exploiting different insurgent groups to settle old scores with Washington. "The government blames Iraq's Sunni neighbours for recently financing, supporting, and delivering weapons to different militant groups. The country has turned again into a battleground for competing regional powers," an independent Shia Iraqi lawmaker told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that recent waves of violence were meant to send alarming messages to Washington that leaving Iraq to Iran to fill in the security vacuum could be highly risky. Sunni Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are suspicious of Obama's changing tone towards Iran which they accuse of trying to destabilise the Arab Middle East by encouraging Shia aspirations especially in Iraq and Lebanon. Some Iraqis, on the other hand, point to more serious domestic perils which hinder the creation of a more all- encompassing political process. They believe that the Shia- dominated government of Al-Maliki is reluctant to truly integrate Sunni forces, especially the Awakening Councils, that are credited with driving Al-Qaeda out of major Sunni areas, into the state's military and civil hierarchy. In recent weeks, several Awakening groups have disintegrated and some members have rejoined the insurgency, saying the government has failed to pay them on time and has been slow to admit them into police academies. Last week, US-backed Iraqi troops detained and arrested several Awakening leaders in Baghdad and Anbar provinces, the most apparent sign that relations with them could deteriorate, especially now that the government is responsible for providing salaries for the estimated 100,000 Awakening fighters. Al-Maliki said on Saturday he appreciated the contribution of the Sunni paramilitary members in the fight against militants, but warned that he would not tolerate subversives in their ranks. He added that some Awakening groups have been infiltrated by Baathists and Al-Qaeda operatives. Iraqi Sunni lawmakers accuse the government of trying to contain the growing influence of the Awakenings ahead of the December parliamentary elections. "The Shia government decided to chase away the Awakenings for fear that they could jeopardise the positions of their Sunni allies as they did in the local elections," a Sunni lawmaker told the Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that Al-Maliki's discourse about reconciling with former Baathists is "only rhetoric which was never translated into concrete steps." The Awakenings, which are aggregations of tribal fighters and former Baath loyalists, scored well in the January provincial elections capitalising on their strong social networks and legacy on bringing back security to Sunni areas. The future of Iraq's stability will indeed depend on regional bargains, but what is also of great importance is Al-Maliki's willingness to forge broad alliances to ensure a more sectarian-inclusive power sharing. By the end of this month, all Iraqi political factions must finalise their governing coalitions in various provinces' councils across Iraq, a possible indicator of how the country will navigate through its complex reality as the American combat troops prepare to leave.
