Will the People's Assembly be dissolved or not? Gamal Essam El-Din examines the flurry of rumour and counter-rumour Though the current term of the People's Assembly -- Egypt's lower house -- is due to end in July 2010 rumours have reached almost hysterical pitch that it will be dissolved before completing its five-year term. The scenario that has gained widest currency is that the assembly will be dissolved at the end of the current 2008-2009 parliamentary session, i.e. by the second half of July. The rumours cite a variety of reasons, some more credible than others. Among the most popular is that the National Democratic Party (NDP) is unhappy with the prospect of two big elections -- for the People's Assembly and Shura Council -- next year, followed soon after by the 2011 presidential poll. "This would impose a very heavy burden on the security and judicial authorities entrusted with supervising elections," said one NDP source who asked not to be named. Hussein Ibrahim, the Muslim Brotherhood's parliamentary spokesman, says that "some wings within the NDP believe that it is bad for Egypt to have two big elections in a single year and then another in the next." Dissolving the People's Assembly and then holding new elections this year will ensure "the ruling party has a rest to prepare for presidential elections in 2011", says Hussein, who claims it is the ruling party that is the source of the stories. "The NDP also believes that holding parliamentary elections this year will allow it to sweep the poll and win more than 95 per cent of assembly seats." Ibrahim denies that the Brotherhood has any hand in the stories that are sweeping the assembly's corridors. "The NDP has always used such stories to try and intimidate the opposition from voicing stronger criticisms of the government and its policies." That the NDP began distributing a questionnaire among grassroots members two weeks ago asking them to name their preferred candidates for parliamentary elections has fanned the flurry of speculation. Hamdi El-Tahan, an NDP heavyweight and chairman of the assembly's Transport Committee, says "it is the first time the questionnaire has been distributed a full year ahead of elections and this has led some to assume that the assembly is about to be dissolved." The NDP's secretary for organisational affairs, Ahmed Ezz, however, argued last week that "the questionnaire is a routine procedure and part of efforts aimed at democratising the party's decisions". An alternative theory posits that since the assembly is due to discuss new legislation aimed at increasing the number of seats reserved for women in parliament, a bill that is almost certain to be passed, the assembly will effectively have called for its own dissolution. Others have suggested the fact that the Court of Cassation has so far disqualified more than 120 MPs has effectively undermined the status of the current house and made new elections inevitable. The Court of Cassation is constitutionally bound to investigate law suits contesting the results of parliamentary elections. Amid the swirl of rumours People's Assembly speaker Fathi Sorour told the weekly magazine Al-Mussawar that he had no comments to make, explaining that "amended Article 136 of the constitution clearly states that the president shall not dissolve the People's Assembly unless it is necessary and after a referendum be put to the public". Sorour stressed that he has heard "the dissolution rumours" from more than one NDP MP. "It is strange that people are repeating these stories as if they are facts despite their having no authority to speak on the issue. President Mubarak is the only one authorised to decide if it is necessary to dissolve the assembly or not." Moufid Shehab, minister of state for legal and parliamentary affairs, told Al-Ahram Weekly that he does not believe the necessary conditions are in place to dissolve the assembly. "Let me emphasise that President Mubarak has the final say in determining whether it is necessary to dissolve parliament or not," he said. He points out that during 28 years in power Mubarak has refrained from dissolving parliament before it completes its term apart from on two occasions, in 1984 and 1990, and then only after the Supreme Constitutional Court had judged the laws under which the elections had been held to be in breach of the constitution. Shehab went on to explain that the government is still in the process of preparing a new anti-terror law. During his presidential campaign in 2005, President Mubarak promised that the emergency laws would be abrogated in favour of anti-terror legislation. "We are not in a hurry to rush it through. President Mubarak himself said in 2005 that the anti-terror law should be the result of careful study and discussion. Since it aims to replace the emergency law its final form should be without legislative loopholes," Shehab argued, insisting that the emergency law had been effective in tackling terrorism and that the government had been keen to restrict its application only to terrorists and drug-traffickers, and in a manner that did not violate human rights. Shehab strongly criticised the US State Department's 2008 report on human rights conditions in Egypt. "Most of the information cited in the report was either entirely unfounded or based on hearsay," he said.
