How long can the Nazif government survive? Gamal Essam El-Din seeks an answer Before leaving Egypt on a four-day visit to Greece and Portugal, President Hosni Mubarak met with the cabinet of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. Monday's meeting may well have discussed ways to tackle the increasingly contentious issue of social subsidies, though to most observers its significance was largely symbolic. The meeting, they argue, was intended to put an end to rumours that a cabinet reshuffle, or wholesale replacement of the government, is imminent. Some rumours suggested that Nazif would remain as prime minister to preside over a cabinet cleansed of ministers currently responsible for public service portfolios such as health and education. Some newspapers even reported that Minister of Health Hatem El-Gabali had already been sacked. During a visit to Port Said, Nazif was quick to quash the speculation. El-Gabali, he told reporters, "is just on a special visit to the United States". Other rumours suggested that Farouk El-Okda, the governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), would replace Nazif as prime minister. Since taking office in December 2003, El-Okda has been praised for maintaining the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against the dollar and has presided over an increase in the CBE's dollar reserves which now stand at $31 billion. Speculation over El-Okda's future only came to a halt when, on 28 November, President Mubarak issued a decree renewing El-Okda's appointment as CBE governor for a second four-year term. So are the prime minister and his cabinet now on safe ground? The answer to that question is not as simple as it might appear given the challenges the government faces in the coming weeks, not least among which is the onus to prove that it is, indeed, constitutional. Questions over the legitimacy of the current government were first raised last week when independent and opposition MPs argued that it should be dismissed for failing to meet the requirements imposed by amendments to Article 133 of the constitution. The amended article states that within 60 days of forming a cabinet the prime minister must submit the government's programme to the People's Assembly for approval. No programme has been submitted despite the constitutional amendments being passed last March. The People's Assembly will pass judgement on the constitutional status of Nazif's government on Sunday. The assembly's Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee, led by parliamentary speaker Fathi Sorour, has already declared the Nazif government constitutional, though it is likely to be dogged by continuing doubts over its legitimacy. Professor of constitutional law and former justice minister Mahmoud Abu Zeid argues that a reshuffle should be announced, allowing the new government to present its programme as required under Article 133. Political analyst Amr Hashem Rabie concurs. He told Al-Ahram Weekly that the best way out of the current impasse would be for President Mubarak to order a reshuffle, allowing the new government 60 days to prepare its programme. "It will not be enough for the Nazif government to submit a programme to the assembly in order for it to be declared constitutional, whatever constitutional experts within the ruling National Democratic Party [NDP] say," insists Rabie. "First there must be a reshuffle if the government is to meet the stipulations of Article 133." But the Nazif government faces more than constitutional challenges in the wake of its announcement last week that subsidies will in the future be offered in the form of cash. The decision, as Al-Ahram economic analyst Ahmed El-Sayed El-Naggar told the Weekly, reflects a serious shortage of funds available to the Nazif government. "The subsidy bill has risen to LE65 billion, an increase of LE9 billion in just nine months after dramatic rises in the international price of oil and wheat," says El-Naggar. The new subsidy plan, he says, has played badly with the public. "Everywhere you go ordinary people are saying the switch to direct cash subsidies will undermine their ability to survive." NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif says there are no immediate plans to end the current system of subsidies. "All we are saying in the NDP is that we want a public debate over the way in which subsidies are delivered so that they can be directed at those most in need." El-Naggar believes that in meeting with the government on Monday President Mubarak was less concerned with scotching rumours of an impending change of government than in discussing the possibility of social unrest following any cut in social subsidies. The Nazif cabinet has also been accused of offering bribes to NDP MPs in return for their rubber-stamping the annual state budget and controversial items of legislation. Sorour has said the accusations are sufficiently serious for Nazif himself to come to the assembly and explain the government's position. The charges emerged among the 65 interpellations -- questions that must be answered by cabinet ministers -- submitted in the first two weeks of the current parliamentary session and which contain a plethora of potentially damaging charges. Opposition and independent MPs have vowed to keep the pressure up in their campaign against the Nazif government. The number of interpellations has now jumped to 82, the most recent charging that the government has consistently failed to stand up to rampant corruption on local city councils or to tackle monopolistic practices in the cement and steel sectors. The main focus of opposition and independent MPs, though, is the decision last July to sell off the state- owned Banque Du Caire. Banque du Caire "is a red line issue" says El-Naggar, and it could presage the end of Nazif's government. Rabie also believes that in face of current crises President Mubarak might opt for a new government, not least because it would serve, in the short term, to contain growing public anger and frustration. (see Editorial p.14)
