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Doomsday scenarios
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 07 - 05 - 2009

A Shura Council report rings alarm bells about the possible spread of swine flu, reports Gamal Essam El-Din
The Shura Council on Monday urged the government to take all necessary measures to combat the spread of swine flu into Egypt.
The council's report quoted Shehab Abdel-Hamid, a member of the board of the Veterinarians' Syndicate, warning that the virus could cause the death of 18 million Egyptians, or 22 per cent of the population.
Mohamed Youssef, deputy dean of Mansoura University's Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, told the Shura that he expects Egypt to be the first Arab country to see cases of swine flu.
"Egypt neighbours Israel, which has so far reported four cases. And Cairo is surrounded by large pig farms like a belt," said Youssef. He argues that "taking preventive measures against the spread of swine flu is a matter of national security."
"Prevention means that all pigs in Egypt must be slaughtered as soon as possible to stem the tide of the epidemic and keep the country safe from its lethal effects."
Veterinarians' Syndicate board member Ahmed Shawqi called for the elimination of all pigs in Egypt within days and the relocation of pig farms away from densely populated areas.
"Not only are pigs the major source of swine flu but also a route for spreading avian flu," he said.
The 20-page report was the subject of heated debate, with cabinet ministers lining up to explain their strategy to keep Egypt safe from the virus.
Minister of Agriculture Amin Abaza said that when avian flu hit Egypt for the first time in February 2006, it was the Ministry of Agriculture that shouldered the burden of responsibility and "now it is the turn of the Ministry of Health to fight swine flu". Abaza also criticised the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) for questioning the government's decision to cull all pigs.
"I invited the president of the FAO to come and see for himself how 90 per cent of the pigs are being bred in densely populated areas, exposing the health of citizens to great dangers," said Abaza.
The culling of pigs in Egypt, he continued, should not be seen as a religious or political issue.
"We are not against raising pigs. We do, however, object to pig farms remaining in densely populated neighbourhoods."
Chairman of the Shura Council Safwat El-Sherif also argued "the FAO was wrong to criticise Egypt".
"What the government is doing," El-Sherif went on, "is not exactly culling pigs but rather slaughtering them to be eaten later."
"Their meat will be stored in freezers and then served later as food," he said.
The decision to slaughter pigs should not be viewed as "an Islamic measure against Christians.""
"It is not an issue of Muslims or Christians but of the health of all Egyptians."
Minister of Health Hatem El-Gabali said his ministry had taken all the preventive measures necessary to stop swine flu from spreading in Egypt.
"These include examining visitors entering Egypt from abroad, especially from Mexico and the US, but even those returning from omra [lesser pilgrimage] visits to Saudi Arabia."
Abaza also revealed that a crisis management committee, comprising 12 senior Ministry of Health officials, had already been formed to implement a 2007 strategy aimed at containing viruses such as swine flu.
"This committee is closely coordinating with the army," he said.
Shura members stressed the government must quickly compensate the owners of pig farms.
Mohamed Ragab, National Democratic Party (NDP) spokesman, argued that closing pig farms around Greater Cairo could aggravate poverty. He pointed to the clash which erupted on Sunday between riot police and stone-throwing pig farmers trying to prevent their animals from being taken for slaughter. "Riot police should not be the only tool for implementing orders," he said, before asking the government to work more closely with local community leaders and political parties.
Minister of State for Local Development, Abdel-Salam El-Mahgoub, questioned estimates of the total number of pig farms in Egypt.
"The government has comprehensive statistics about pig farming in Egypt," he said, on the basis of which he could tell council members that speculation that "as many as 350,000 pigs live in Egypt" were without foundation. El-Mahgoub also indicated that despite Sunday's police clash with owners of some pig farms "owners approved the culling of their animals in return for compensation".
Minister of State for Environmental Affairs Maged George said future pig farms would be restricted to the desert road linking Suez and Cairo and operate under strict environmental monitoring.
Emad Mahrous, NDP Shura member for North Sinai, urged the government to ban Israelis from entering Egypt.
"With Israel reporting four cases of people infected with swine flu, the government should be firm and bar all Israelis -- including high-ranking Israeli officials -- from entering Egypt," he said. Mahrous was alluding to the meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and President Hosni Mubarak scheduled for next week in the Sinai resort of Sharm El-Sheikh. Mahrous also called on the government to order Israel's national airline Al-al to halt flights to Egypt.
"We know that pigs live on refuse dumps and as a consequence of the mass culling mountains of rubbish will be everywhere in Cairo," said Shura Council member Salwa Bayoumi. She stressed that the zabaleen community will be hard hit by the culling of pigs.
"Most of these garbage collectors are Christians but because the culling is a national issue the government should be keen to extend a helping hand to them," she argued.
On Monday the Shura Council approved a $10 million loan from the Islamic Bank of Development, earmarked to help fight avian flu.
"The loan will help produce vaccines and improve the veterinary services in a country where 8.6 million rural households depend for their livelihoods on raising fowl," said Abaza.


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