The incidence of swine flu infections remains within the expected range, Reem Leila reports Experts and health officials expect cooler weather to bring an increase in incidents of swine flu. On 8 January the Ministry of Health announced the death of more patients and an additional 733 confirmed cases of infection. Of the dead -- most of them are patients suffering chronic diseases. Ministry of Health spokesman Abdel-Rahman Shahin says that between October 2010 and January 2011 the number of cases of swine flu in Egypt reached 2,904. During the this week, 20 swine flu fatalities took place. During the current winter season of 2010-2011 there are 3,214 cases. Twelve months earlier 14,846 cases were reported during the same period. Swine flu was first detected in Egypt in June 2009. Clinical studies and surveillance conducted by the ministry, adds Shahin, show the H1N1 virus spreading within the normal range of seasonal flu. "Swine flu cases are expected to increase during January but by the beginning of February the number of fatalities and infections are expected to decline." Health Ministry data reveals that 80 per cent of fatalities last year comprised patients with chronic underlying problems or else pregnant women. There are more than 450 hospitals across the country involved in surveillance to the deadly virus. Nasr El-Sayed, deputy minister of health for preventive medicine, advises people to take the seasonal flu vaccine which now includes protection against swine flu. "There have been no mutations in the virus or any cases of resistance to Tamiflu," says El-Sayed. This year children account for 13 per cent of the total of reported cases and the elderly just two per cent. "The majority of swine flu cases," reports El-Sayed, "are among the 17 to 35 age group." "Until now additional precautionary measures have been judged unnecessary and will not be put in place as long as the overall situation remains at its current levels," he says. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health has announced the death of the first bird flu patient of 2011. The victim is a 40-year- old male from Al-Daqahliya governorate. He was found to have contracted the virus last week. The last bird flu fatality of 2010 -- Egypt's 39th -- was a 25-year- old woman from Qena who died on 29 December. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) the number of H5N1 infections reported since the virus appeared in Egypt in February 2006 now stands at 119, with 40 cases proving fatal. Tamiflu, says Shahin, is available for free at public hospitals. It is also widely available in pharmacies. "Only patients suffering from the H1N1 or H5N1 virus should take Tamiflu. No one should do so as a precautionary measure," he confirmed.
