For once, writes Hassan Abu Taleb*, positive signs are coming out of Sudan It is refreshing to hear about Darfur not in a context of despair but in one of hope. For once we are able to believe the Sudanese government when it claims that security has been restored in various parts of Darfur. Refugees have begun to go back to their villages and some hope to start planting during the current rainy season. So far, 165,000 refugees out of a total of 4.5 million are thought to have returned to their homes near Nyala, the capital of southern Darfur. Efforts are underway to encourage others to do the same, though the picture is far from rosy. Refugees complain of food shortages and say that they don't have enough protection in the villages to which they have returned. Many fear that armed gangs could strike once again. Should this happen it will curb the flow of returning refugees. But if the refugees continue to return it will add credibility to the government's claim that tensions are easing even in areas controlled by insurgents. Voluntary return is only one aspect of a complex situation. Neighbouring countries often interfere in Darfur. Some, with Sudan's best interests in mind, are pushing for a comprehensive political settlement. Others just try to keep the conflict going. Arab peace efforts have stumbled due to the interference of some of Sudan's neighbours. During the Bush administration, Washington pushed the Sudanese government without allowing it a face-saving deal. Now things are changing. The first few months of the Obama administration saw a tendency on Washington's side to talk to the Sudanese government as well as the opposition. The Americans are now pressing the insurgents to engage in peace talks. The White House appears to want a solution regardless of who sponsors the talks. And Washington is said to be willing to become directly involved in negotiations if needed. At least some of the rebels are cooperating with Arab peace efforts. A psychological shift has taken place. The idea that the conflict can be resolved solely through military means is no longer taken seriously. Those who had hoped to drive a wedge between the US and the Sudanese government are giving up. The White House has named Scott Gration as special envoy to Sudan. He supports continued talks between the government and the rebels and favours the territorial integrity of Sudan. Gration has also made it clear that neighbouring countries should stop turning the Sudanese against one another. He offered to help Sudan's ruling party and the Popular Movement -- the two signatories of the Naivasha deal -- to resolve their differences and implement agreements on time. Now that the rebel movement are willing to talk, and mediators are closely involved in the details of a peace deal, the refugees may have hope for the future. Egypt, in particular, is taking advantage of the diplomatic improvement. The Egyptians and Libyans have been holding talks with the Darfur insurgents for nearly 18 months now. Leaders of seven Sudanese factions met in Cairo two weeks ago in an effort to end the conflict. Egypt maintains an equal distance from the Darfur factions, including the Justice and Equality Movement (which didn't show up in Cairo but is in regular touch with Egyptian officials). Cairo is also keeping Khartoum informed of developments in the talks. Cairo has suggested that rebel groups set up an umbrella organisation with a rotating president, and that they set a clear agenda for ongoing negotiations. The factions need to start trusting one another, but that may take time. Many of the existing factions are offshoots of tribal and military groups. By sponsoring the talks, Egypt is trying to help them move beyond traditional differences. Fortunately, the different aims of the factions regarding negotiations are not that substantial, leading to hopes that the next round of talks may produce a consensual formula for future negotiations. Once this is in place the factions will continue to communicate with the Egyptians and the Libyans. Eventually, the Justice and Equality Movement and Abdel-Wahed Nour's Sudan Liberation Movement will have to be brought on board. None of this will be easy, for the Justice and Equality Party likes to act like Darfur's sole leader, a claim other factions resent. Everyone agrees that power and wealth should be shared proportionately among the inhabitants of Darfur. The various militias seem to be willing to merge into the Sudanese army after a suitable transitional period. The problem with Chad will also have to be addressed. At one point, compensation need to be paid to those who have suffered most from the fighting, and people driven from their land will have to return. Once this is done, new horizons of development will open. Egypt believes that the armed factions are willing to abandon their weapons. For a change, Sudan seems able to move on. * The writer is an expert at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies and chief editor of the annual Arab Strategic Report.
