Mercurial Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's decision to leave the March 14 anti-Syrian movement has further delayed the formation of a national unity cabinet in Lebanon. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut In the tortuous world of Lebanese politics, nothing is ever simple. Or quick. Lebanon's drawn-out formation of a national unity cabinet faced further obstacles this week, as comments by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt appeared to herald the demise of the March 14 movement. "Farewell, March 14", the pro-opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar read on Monday, a day after the Progressive Socialist Party leader signalled his intention to leave the pro-Western, anti-Syrian coalition that was formed in the shockwaves of Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination in February 2005. "Our alliance with March 14 forces was driven by necessity and must not continue," Jumblatt told a general assembly of his party. "Our battle was built on the rejection of the other from a sectarian, tribal and political perspective," he added, calling for a "return to the left". Jumblatt not only spearheaded the movement and the so-called "Cedar Revolution" that added to international pressure on the Syrians, but was also widely seen as a hawk directing the movement to follow in the footsteps of former US president George Bush and his neoconservative coterie. His remarks shook the March 14, named after a 2005 mass demonstration on that date calling on the Syrians to leave. Many in Lebanon and the West blamed Damascus for the former prime minister's killing. Like most alliances in Lebanon, the anti-Syrian coalition is an uneasy partnership of disparate sectarian elements, led by Sunni prime minister- designate Saad Al-Hariri, whose main ally was hitherto Jumblatt, and also containing Christian parties such as Amin Gemayel's Phalange and the right-wing Lebanese Forces led by Samir Geagea. After Jumblatt's comments, Al-Hariri junior looked increasingly isolated as he left suddenly to the south of France, further putting cabinet negotiations on hold. Jumblatt's comments were not a total surprise. The Druze leader was a staunch ally of Syria before he became its most vocal foe. His latest re-positioning started after the fighting of May 2008, in which opposition forces fought with Jumblatt's supporters in his Chouf mountain heartlands and also briefly took over western Beirut. The battles, sparked by a clamp-down on Hizbullah's communications networks, effectively ended discussion about whether the state could wrest Hizbullah's formidable arsenal from its grip. "Jumblatt was upset by the events of 7 May and decided he was not going to stay against Hizbullah," said Rosanna Bou Monsef, a columnist for the anti-Syria newspaper An- Nahar. "The March 14 was a movement aimed at making the Syrians leave and then it lasted in the years of political divisions. After the election, we expected a shift. But we didn't expect it to come before the government was formed." It may be too soon to sound the death knell for the March 14 and a four-year era in which Lebanese society was polarised behind two blocs. "Behind the scenes, this could just be another of Jumblatt's Machiavellian moves, throwing his toys out of the pram because he didn't get what he wanted in the negotiations, and this is his threat to March 14," said Karim Makdisi, assistant professor of political studies at the American University of Beirut. But the apparent finality of Jumblatt's statement has put Al-Hariri in a tough position and clearly shocked his Future Movement. Its initial response was muted, in an attempt to limit damage, denying that March 14 had rejected any other side. But it also warned against "going back to the shameful history in which many were partners in putting their personal interest above the nation's interest". Al-Hariri left for France a couple of days later, in what Bou Monsef said was a form of protest. "He's saying 'if you want a government, you'll have to cooperate'," she said. Incumbent Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora said there was no risk of Al-Hariri withdrawing from the premiership, but such a decision may be on the cards if agreement on a new government remains elusive. Last week, Al-Hariri's ruling majority, the opposition, and consensus President Michel Suleiman agreed to divide cabinet posts by a formula of 15-10-5 respectively. Jumblatt had been expected to garner three ministries. If he decides, as he announced this week, to form a new centrist bloc aligned with the president, that would leave Al-Hariri, just two months ago riding high on an unexpectedly strong victory for March 14 in 7 June elections, controlling a rump of the cabinet. Furthermore, his defection would potentially remove 11 seats from the parliamentary majority, which took 71 seats in June against the opposition's 57 seats. Jumblatt says he will move closer to President Michel Suleiman, rather than join the opposition. Bou Monsef said Jumblatt had told her five MPs would stay with him, the rest were free to vote with March 14 if they wanted to. Indeed, the Lebanese media widely speculated about a possible split in Jumblatt's parliamentary bloc in reaction to his statement. His apparent nonchalance concerning this could be a further sign that Jumblatt -- whose weathervane-like ability to forecast shifting political currents is an oft-cited legend of Lebanese politics -- expects an imminent domestic realignment that will render terms such as "March 14" and "anti-" or "pro-Syrian" obsolete. "If the March 14-March 8 split was a reflection of the Bush years and the war on terror, and a result of those policies from outside that were pushing and creating two extreme blocs, then this represents coming back into middle, less extreme positions," Makdisi said. "It becomes murkier, it's more difficult to form an alliance when it's not clear what your arguments are about. The business of the muqawama [resistance] is finished." With Washington now making overtures to Syria and a wary Syrian-Saudi rapprochement underway, a general shift in all Lebanese parties vis-à-vis their larger neighbour seems in the offing. Al-Hariri is expected to visit Damascus when a cabinet is finally in place. Reconciliation between Christian parties of the March 14 and opposition has also started. If a new bloc emerges, it is likely to be friendly with Syria, without being hostile to the West, but further from Iran than Hizbullah, analysts say. Another key figure would be the man Makdisi describes as Lebanon's other "great survivor", Shia leader of the Amal opposition party and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, a close friend and civil war-era ally of Jumblatt, notwithstanding the deep rift of the past four years. "They are a fairly powerful duo and they've now strengthened their own positions," he said. The splintering of the two blocs merely marks a reversion to type for Lebanon's sectarian political scene, after an election in which no side campaigned seriously on social or economic issues, Makdisi added. "Now it's back to more parochial calculations of interests and of trying to form petty alliances," he said. "There are no principles, just short-term survival."
