As the Shabab and Hizb Al-Islam militant groups battle it out for control of the southern port city of Kismayo, Somalia's future seems to be in the balance, writes Attiya Issawi While the pitched battles between the Shabab and Hizb Al-Islam militant groups in Somalia's southern port city of Kismayo have dealt a body blow to the alliance of forces that once came close to bringing down the government of Sherif Sheikh Ahmed, differences between these former partners may not be all about ideology. As the two former allies continued to battle it out in the streets of Kismayo recently, hopes that the civil war in Somalia could soon come to an end have evaporated, with observers noting that as the number of casualties mounts Somalia may well be on the way to turning into another Darfur. Until recently, Hizb Al-Islam, an Islamist militia group, and the Shabab movement, another Islamist militia, generally saw eye to eye on Somalia's future, both groups wanting to implement a tough version of Islamic law in the country that would go some way towards turning the country into an Islamic state. However, this honeymoon period has not survived the test of personal and clan rivalries. As members of the Islamist militias have become more adept at playing power games and gaining wealth for themselves, they have also started to emulate patterns of behaviour familiar from the warlords who tore Somalia apart after the collapse of the Siad Berre regime in 1991. While the rise of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006 brought down the first wave of warlords, a new brand of warlords has now been born in the shape of the militia leaders, who are just as loyal to their clan groups as were the previous ones. Analysts of the situation say that conduct familiar from the earlier warlords has been creeping into the ranks of the Islamists. Some of the latter have been confiscating property, claiming that it represents the fair spoils of war, while others have assassinated public figures and intellectuals to satisfy local vendettas. Yet, despite the claims the two groups may make, at the bottom of the current struggle lie money and power, with the Hizb Al-Islam and Shabab groups fighting it out over the port of Kismayo, 500km south of the Somali capital Mogadishu, because the group that controls the port would not only be the richer of the two, but would also control the passage of arms into the country. The most recent bout of fighting, in which dozens have been killed or wounded, began when Ahmed Madobe of Hizb Al-Islam launched an attack on the Shabab, the latter responding in kind while also claiming that Madobe was trying to put an end to their Sharia-inspired form of government. However, the truth is that both groups want control of Kismayo, and while in the past they have managed to maintain an alliance by rotating control over the port, each militia agreeing to run the port and control its revenues for a six- month period before handing over control to the other, when it came for the Shabab to hand over control to Hizb Al-Islam recently leaders of the group demurred. Leaders of Hizb Al-Islam responded by accusing the Shabab of being greedy to retain control of the port, which brings in considerable revenue, together with control over arms shipments from abroad. Hizb Al-Islam announced that it would fight the Shabab for control of the port if necessary, which it has now done, proving that this was no empty threat. For its part, the Somali government, which is the enemy of both militia groups, has called for a ceasefire, saying that the fighting is ruining the country. However, observers say that the government calls could be insincere since both militia groups want to bring down the government, and the latter has everything to gain if they destroy each other first. The Shabab and Hizb Al-Islam may soon come to their senses and halt the fighting, observers say, if only because it is benefiting their common enemy. The groups are close to an agreement on a ceasefire, they add, with a joint committee being formed to sort out differences over Kismayo. However, other observers say that any agreement between the two groups would be fragile at best, and that the two militias are in fact regrouping for another bout of fighting. Though the fighting between the two militia groups is probably mostly caused by rivalry for control of the port, there may nevertheless also be an ideological component. While the Shabab group, which styles itself after Al-Qaeda, wants to "liberate" the entire Horn of Africa and turn it into an Islamic state, Hizb Al-Islam is more modest in its aims, wanting control over Somalia alone. Hizb Al-Islam is also more moderate on the diplomatic front and has not been averse to talking either to the Americans or their Arab allies, saying only that foreigners should not be allowed to interfere in Somali affairs. The more militant Shabab group, on the other hand, will not talk to the Americans, and it looks down on Arab and Muslim countries that it considers too friendly with Washington. The Shabab considers jihad to be its regional duty and wants to battle the Americans and their allies across the Horn of Africa. As a goodwill gesture, the Shabab have released seven Hizb Al-Islam fighters captured in the Kismayo battles, though it has also warned that future prisoners may not be treated with the same leniency. Despite their differences with the Shabab, Hizb Al-Islam officials have ruled out any rapprochement with the Somali government, a key figure in the movement saying that "we will not negotiate with Sherif under any circumstances." If the Sherif government has any chance of standing up to the insurgents, then it will need military assistance from Western countries and neighbouring states. Sympathy with the government is not in short supply in the West, especially since many believe that the Shabab are receiving help from foreign combatants entering the country through Kismayo. Karel De Gucht, the EU commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, said recently that unless Western countries do something to stop Al-Qaeda from gaining a foothold in Somalia, the country could turn into another Afghanistan. The international community should provide more assistance to the Somali government to enable it to impose its control outside Mogadishu, De Gucht said. Since the fighting started between the Islamist groups, humanitarian conditions in the country have also deteriorated, and it is thought that 19,000 people have died and 1.5 million have been displaced since the beginning of 2007. Hundreds more are said to have drowned this year while trying to flee the country across the Gulf of Aden.
