Sudan seems trapped in the eye of the storm while Egypt is trying hard to find it an exit, writes Dina Ezzat Things are getting rough for Sudan. Political figures from the north and south of the country are now openly talking about a new civil war that could result either from a delay of due referenda -- on the independence of the south and the affiliation of oil-rich Abyei to the north or south -- scheduled for 9 January or from the referenda going ahead against the backdrop of failure to settle disagreement over the border between the north and south and the exact means of ensuring a transparent referendum process. "It is a very tough situation and it would be simply wrong to overlook the very obvious scenario of violence -- if not necessarily a full civil war -- in Sudan next year," said an Egyptian diplomat who asked for his name to be withheld. According to this diplomat, should it occur, violence would likely not only be between north and south but could expand: "You could have an escalation of violence in Abyei and you could have an escalation of violence in Darfur and even within the north and south. It is a very serious situation," he said. Darfur is the war-torn western region of Sudan where a comprehensive political deal between the government and rebels has been evasive. And inter- north and inter-south frictions, according to foreign diplomatic sources in Khartoum, are already occurring between those who favour the unity of Sudan and those who favour the independence of the south. "And if we wake up to an independent South Sudan we would wake up to a new country with no proper statehood machinery and with citizens being thrown out of the north and who might not want to abandon their wealth and go to the south. It is a very tough situation," the same diplomat added. It was the Nivasha Peace Agreement signed in 2005 between the north and south of Sudan that stipulated the holding of both referenda. Today, with less than two months to go, the political requirements for the referenda are lacking, according to both north and south governments. But while the north government is hoping for a delay, the south is determined that the referenda happen on time. "Either a referendum on 9 January or war on 9 January," argued a source affiliated to the government of the south. It is this scenario that Cairo is trying hard to evade. "We are talking to all concerned, including the government of the south, to see if some extension of the 9 January date could be secured with Sudanese and international consensus. I think we have some support in Africa, but it is a tough consensus to secure -- especially with the leaders of the south," the same Egyptian diplomat added. This week, Cairo gave considerable media -- and indeed political -- attention to the visit of Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein, Sudan's minister of defence who held talks with top political and media officials and who was received Tuesday by President Hosni Mubarak. Following his talks with Mubarak, Hussein announced that Mubarak offered Egypt's full support for a referendum that should not in any way undermine peace and stability of Sudan but should rather work to enhance them. "The referendum is a means and not an end in itself, and as such it should be conducted in a context that would enhance rather than undermine the stability of Sudan," said Hussein. The itemisation of this general statement, he added, means an agreement between the north and the south on the status of Abyei and the completion of an agreement on the borders of which "only 80 per cent" has been agreed upon, according to Hussein. "Those are pre- referenda matters that should be addressed within one Sudan. And this is the way to avoid any reason for the resumption of hostilities," he insisted. He added: "Any unilateral announcement of independence by the south of Sudan would not be considered legal because independence, according to the Nivasha Agreement, can only be attained through a referendum." According to statements made by concerned UN officials, preparations for the referenda are far behind schedule. And there are no guarantees that the 27 October talks between the north and south about who should participate in the Abyei vote -- and thus decide its fate -- would produce a deal that has so far been difficult to broker. Egyptian Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awwad declined to comment on Egypt's stance regarding a possible delay of the 9 January referenda. In statements Tuesday, Awwad insisted that what counts is not only the date of the referenda but equally the peaceful execution of the referenda. "Regardless of the date, we need to move to a more responsible attitude to ensure the success of the referenda and to cushion any serious implications that might threaten [the stability of Sudan] in the south or the north," Awwad said.
