Dina Ezzat reports on Egypt's last-ditch attempts to keep Sudan united Salva Kiir could well be the first president of the new Southern Sudan state in 2011. Today, Kiir is the leader of the Sudan Popular Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the First Vice-President of Omar Al-Bashir, the northern ruler of Sudan and possibly the ruler of a divided North of Sudan in two years' time. Kiir was in Cairo this week, at the invitation of the Egyptian presidency, for talks that Cairo hopes will help in winning Kiir over to the cause of unity. In Cairo, Kiir met with President Hosni Mubarak, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman. He also met with Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa. Each of these high ranking officials had a crucial message to put across to the visiting leader of Southern Sudan: keeping Sudan united is in the interest of the south as much as it is in the interest of the north, and compromises could be made to entice the people of the south. There was a follow up message, however: if division becomes unavoidable, then the new Southern Sudan state should remain member to the Arab League and should stay a good neighbour of Egypt. To these calls, Kiir offered little commitment, notwithstanding a sense of openness. In a press statement issued following his talks with President Hosni Mubarak on Monday, at the Heliopolis presidential headquarters, Kiir said that the crux of his talks in Cairo focussed on ways to make continued unity of Sudan possible. Kiir did not dismiss all chances of keeping Sudan united. Nonetheless, he said it would take much in the way of serious work to make continued unity possible -- not to mention attractive -- for the people of Sudan. According to the Nivasha Peace Agreement signed in 2005 between the SPLM/A and the National Conference Party of Al-Bashir, a referendum on the unity of Sudan should be conducted in 2011 to allow the people of the north and south to decide whether or not to remain in a united Sudan. The peace agreement, which ended around two decades of bloody civil war, stipulated that efforts should be undertaken to make unity "attractive" by the date of referendum. This meant, among other things, effort towards an equitable share of wealth and power between the north and south, considerable development in the south that suffered decades of negligence, and a limit to the attempt of the north to impose Islamic-style rule on the largely non-Muslim south. Today, officials in the north and south disagree on the level of commitment that each side has shown towards the cause of unity. However, off the record, they agree that today the cause of unity appears significantly challenged. It is an open secret that in the north, as in the south, there are many voices that argue that the division of Sudan is not necessarily a bad idea. Kiir, Egyptian and other Arab diplomats argue, is not pro-unity but he is not necessarily set on the division of Sudan. "His statement [on Monday] is an accurate reflection of his thoughts," said an Egyptian diplomat. According to sources who took part in talks Kiir participated in meetings for three consecutive days in Cairo before going home Tuesday, the SPLM/A leader is willing to "help give unity a chance" in return for what he qualifies as "more commitment to the requirements of peace and unity". The itemised bill of demands that Kiir frankly presented to his Egyptian and Arab interlocutors included: an agreement between the SPLM/A and the ruling party on the rules and regulations of legislative and presidential elections scheduled for next spring; agreement on still disputed demarcation lines between the north and south, especially in oil rich zones; and agreement on the regulation of the census that would decide who, in the north and south, is entitled to vote in the aforementioned referendum scheduled for early 2011. In return, Kiir could give a nod to a delay of the referendum from January to later in the year. Sources in Cairo and Khartoum say that so far this is taboo. However, they agree that the interest US Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration has been demonstrating on keeping Sudan united could give the call for a delay a substantial push. Moreover, the same sources argue that the concern, which they attribute to some northern Sudanese leaders, that the break away of the south could encourage albeit still timid separatist currents in Darfur might prompt the ruling party of the north to accommodate some of the demands made by the south, especially in relation to the composition of the joint south-north government and the role of southern leaders in this government. The Arab League is planning to take a number of top Arab businessmen to the south of Sudan in late January to launch a number of mega development projects. This, the pan-Arab organisation hopes, would give southern leaders an awareness that keeping good ties with the Arab world is ultimately in their interest, be it as part of a national unity regime or as an independent state. Egypt too is being conspicuously generous with Sudan's southern leaders. "We are being realistic about what is going to happen. Division is looming. We are trying our best to keep it away, but if it happens we want to have the best of relations with the new state," said an Egyptian diplomat on condition of anonymity. ( see p.10)
