UN and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has put forward proposals for a truce in the Syrian conflict, though observers insist that only binding UN resolutions will end the fighting, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus In the light of the Syrian regime's continued military crackdown against the armed revolutionary opposition, the destruction everywhere in Syria, and an international community that has been unable to reach a consensus on an initiative that would end the violence that has now been raging for 20 months, UN and Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi has put forward proposals for a temporary truce between the two sides during the Eid holiday. After a whistlestop tour of the region that included stops in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan, where he discussed the Syrian crisis, as well as Damascus at the end of his tour, Brahimi hoped that all the parties would accept a temporary ceasefire. He said he was trying to convince the Syrian regime led by President Bashar Al-Assad and the opposition to accept a truce and for regional powers to support it. He added that he hoped that such a truce could be a way of building trust between the two sides and could contribute to reaching a longer ceasefire that would pave the way to a political process. However, he warned that the Syrian crisis would not remain within the country's borders forever and not resolving it "will consume everything in its path". The Syrian government said it was willing to discuss the proposal, linking its success to adherence by both sides. It added that the armed opposition, formed of the armed revolutionary brigades and countries that Syria accuses of arming the opposition, especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, would have to stop arming and supporting the armed groups "by hosting them, funding them and arming them" before any ceasefire could be observed. The ceasefire proposal attracted the interest of all the opposition forces in Syria, but their reactions were sometimes muted despite the fierce battles and the civilian population's need for a truce to take effect in the country. The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) welcomed the initiative, saying that "we believe Brahimi's suggestion is primarily aimed at the regime, which is bombing Syrian cities and towns," according to SNC chair Abdel-Basset Sida. Commenting on whether the armed opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) would observe the truce, Sida said that "the FSA is carrying out defensive operations, and when the regime's war machine stops, it is only natural that the FSA's responses will also halt." The FSA, however, comprised of revolutionary brigades, doubted that Brahimi's proposed truce would be achievable, even going so far as to dub it "worthless". According to a FSA statement, "we doubt that the regime will abide by the ceasefire since it has never committed itself to any initiatives or kept its word." The joint military council command in Syria agreed to the truce, though it also had a number of preconditions, notably the release of prisoners, especially women, the lifting of the siege of Homs and the allowing in of medical aid. The regime should not be allowed to use the truce to reinforce its positions, it said, and it should halt all its air sorties. The National Coordination Committee (NCC), which includes most opposition political forces inside Syria, also doubted that the regime would keep its word, emphasising that any steps taken that were not part of a clear political plan would not succeed. On the international stage, there was greater consensus regarding the proposal. Iran, the Syrian regime's closest ally, announced its support for the temporary truce. "We must all come together to stop the conflict and end the bloodshed," declared Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi. In what amounted to support for this position, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said that he and the Iranian president had agreed to issue a joint Turkish-Iranian call in support of Brahimi's ceasefire initiative. Erdogan urged other countries concerned to do the same. Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Al-Arabi called on the Syrian regime and armed opposition groups to accept the proposal and to end all forms of violence and military operations during the Eid. Al-Arabi urged all other countries to observe the truce, hoping that "the Syrian regime will comply with the ceasefire if only for a certain period." China also welcomed the initiative and called on all sides to support Brahimi's efforts. Meanwhile, Iraq supported the proposal, describing it as "a noble initiative" that could contribute positively at this "pressing and escalating time" to resolving the crisis in Syria. A source in Europe revealed that "there is not complete confidence" that the truce will succeed. However, the EU welcomed the idea, the source said, seeing it as an opportunity to facilitate dialogue between the two battling sides. The source added that the success of the truce "depends on how serious the Damascus government is about taking the first step and then the response of the opposition forces. We need to wait and see the outcome before we can pass judgement." The most troubling part of Brahimi's proposal is that it would be a "self-implemented" truce that would not be monitored. Brahimi said that he thought it possible that the opposition would hold its fire, but he did not give an opinion about what the regime would do, saying that some opposition figures had said that any ceasefire by the regime would immediately be adhered to. A leading member of the NCC said he was convinced it would be "impossible" to implement the truce for the time being and that any ceasefire without a comprehensive plan for a resolution attached to it would fail. "An armistice is now impossible," Monzer Khaddam, NCC spokesman, told Al-Ahram Weekly, "because neither side is ready for it, especially since each has been proclaiming victories on the ground. The regime's precondition about the countries supporting the armed opposition is unrealistic, because these states don't acknowledge that they are playing this role although we know the key role they have been playing in fuelling the conflict in Syria." Brahimi has several times said that the Syrian situation is dangerous, and he has described his mission as difficult and "almost impossible". He has also admitted that he cannot fulfil his mission without the support of the Security Council. The Eid truce is not the first ceasefire proposal offered to the regime, since several countries have attempted to end the conflict in Syria through a variety of initiatives, though all of these have failed. The initiative put forward by Brahimi's predecessor, former UN envoy Kofi Annan, called for a truce and sent in some 300 observers to monitor it, though Annan later said that the plan had failed miserably to end the violence. The Syrian regime claimed that it had adopted the Arab and UN proposals, as well as Annan's proposals, and that it had been "armed terrorist groups" that had breached them. UN Security Council reports, however, assert that the regime and its military and security forces violated the previous ceasefire. "The regime's conditional approval of the ceasefire does not mean that the authorities will comply with it," explained Loay Safi, head of the SNC's planning and policies bureau, to the Weekly. "The regime has taught us that it says one thing and does another. Today, the Syrian people do not trust Al-Assad's promises. Even if the regime agrees to the deal, it will not keep its word, and the fighting and destruction will continue. It will blame the FSA for the deaths and destruction it is causing." "In practical terms, the regime does not need foreign guarantees to end the violence. What it needs is the political will to transfer power from Al-Assad to a transitional government committed to a timeline to hold free-and-fair elections not dominated by the security regime. However, the political will to achieve peace is lacking." Meanwhile, Brahimi's initiative is very modest, being just a ceasefire for three or four days. How practical this will be to apply is uncertain, since neither side is willing to surrender gains on the ground. The regime will not stop its military crackdown until it has defeated the opposition, and the armed opposition fears that the regime will use the truce to enforce its positions. Deputy commander of the FSA Colonel Malek Al-Kordi said that "the regime will use the ceasefire to re-gather its troops to pounce on the FSA and civil forces. The regime today has become more insidious and deceptive: we can no longer rely on anyone, neither Brahimi nor anyone else. We have trusted others, but they let us down and now we only trust ourselves." "Al-Assad cannot stop the military operations unless he commits to a political solution to the crisis, because halting the military operations now would result in the collapse of the regime, since suppression and killing are the only two tools that it possesses to stop the protests," Safi said.
