Speculation abounds as to the seriousness with which Abbas has declared his intention not to run for the Palestinian presidency, and so it should, writes Hassan Nafaa* The announcement by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that he won't run again for the presidency lends itself to two sets of interpretations. Some people will see the initiative as a smart political manoeuvre through which Abbas is trying to alleviate domestic criticism and foreign pressure. Many expect the Palestinian president to change his mind once he finds a way to do so without losing face. This is one interpretation. The other interpretation is that Abbas is acting bravely and for purely patriotic motives. Abbas, one can imagine, has done some soul searching and decided to do what is good for the cause at a rather critical moment for the entire nation. People who think well of Abbas believe that he is bowing out to give others a chance to put the Palestinian house in order and clear out the debris that has fallen on that house in recent years. According to this interpretation, the Palestinian president will resist any pressure to accept a new term in office. The two possibilities are worthy of serious consideration. Those who think that Abbas is faking it argue that the Palestinian president has run out of options and is trying to re-establish his credentials from scratch. The reasons for this assertion are as follows. First, the countries known to back Abbas, especially the US and some Arab countries, failed to bring enough pressure on Israel to make it offer the kind of tangible concessions that would make the Palestinian people believe in the peace process. Even President Obama, who seemed at least for a while a potential saviour, has ended up a liability rather than an asset for Abbas. Second, Abbas came under very harsh political recriminations. He was even accused by leading Palestinian figures of being involved in Arafat's assassination. And the Israelis claimed that he told them to attack Gaza and eradicate Hamas. Third, the president's son is involved in commercial and financial dealings with well-known Israelis. This makes Abbas easy prey for Israeli blackmail. The accusations against Abbas reached a crescendo during debate surrounding the postponement of the vote on the Goldstone Report at the Human Rights Council in Geneva. Some said that Abbas was so compromised that he could no longer resist Israeli blackmail, not even to protect vital Palestinian interests. Those who believe that Abbas is serious about wanting out recall the man's honourable past as a key leader of the Palestinian struggle. Abbas, they say, may have opposed Yasser Arafat's policies, but he is no puppet. And he would never sell the Palestinians down the river. It doesn't make sense, some say, for Abbas to hold on to power when his policies are failing on all levels. With the peace process going nowhere, Abbas has finally decided that he cannot play by Israel's rules. The refusal to run for another term, some say, is the president's way of getting back at those who pressured him. He is not only standing up to Israel's blackmail, but also making it clear to all that he puts his people's interests above his own. I will refrain from taking sides in this debate. Rather, I would like to wait and see what Abbas will do in the next few weeks and months. Abbas must be aware that the US administration and most Arab countries want him to stay in his position for the moment, if only to serve as a scapegoat for their failings. The Americans and many Arabs want Abbas to stay on the trail that they have blasted for him, and take the blame at the end. They want him to sign on the dotted line and then bow out in disgrace. By refusing to run one more time for president, Abbas is taking the wind from their sails. He is forcing Arab countries to come to grips with their own responsibility for the current situation in the occupied territories and Jerusalem. Abbas, it seems, has realised that Arab countries need him more than he needs them. But what is true for the US and some Arab countries may not be true for Israel. The Israelis would be happy to see the back of Abbas. Deep down, the Israelis are hoping that once Abbas is out, there will be more chaos on the Palestinian scene. This would give Israel time to grab more land and build more settlements, and perhaps put in office someone like Dahlan. But even for Israel, this is a long shot. More likely, Israel will do its best to keep Abbas in office, at least temporarily, until a suitable replacement is found. It seems that the president's allies did not anticipate his move. And I expect to see frantic attempts to persuade Abbas to stay in office. But what would Abbas ask for in return? Israel's Mofaz speaks about an interim solution leading to a transitional Palestinian state on 60 per cent of the Palestinian territories; an area he claims is home to 99 per cent of the Palestinians. The area could later be expanded as the Palestinian Authority consolidates its position as a democratic and civil government. No Palestinian is going to buy this. Egypt, for its part, is asking for written US guarantees that any Palestinian- Israeli negotiations held before the freezing of settlements would lead to an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. Egypt knows, however, that the Americans are in no position to offer such guarantees. Fayyad is said to be seeking a unilateral declaration of the Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. And the Americans and Europeans are said to support the idea, though I strongly doubt it. Netanyahu's current visit to Washington aims perhaps at ending such speculation. Netanyahu wants the Americans to promise that they would veto any resolution by the UN Security Council in favour of a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state. Some people are still hoping that Syria would ditch its allies in Iran, Lebanon and Palestine in return for Israel's withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Once they get back the Golan, the Syrians are expected to quit objecting to any deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. But that's mere speculation. In all likelihood, Abbas is going to come under immense pressure from those who want to exploit him till the end. But right now, the regional and international powers that stood by Abbas seem to run out of ideas. If you ask me, the only thing left for Abbas is to work hard for Palestinian reconciliation. Now that his decision to bow out has taken a load off his back, he should use his newly gained freedom to bring the Palestinians together. For instance, Abbas may be able to negotiate a deal by which Gilad Shalit -- the Israeli soldier held captive by Hamas in Gaza -- would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including Marwan Al-Barghouti. Then Abbas may be able to persuade all Palestinian factions to hold elections in June 2010, a few months after Al-Barghouti's much-awaited release. If everything goes well, Al-Barghouti may be able to run for president on a national unity programme. That would be a decent way out of the current dilemma. But I am perhaps being too optimistic. * The writer is professor of political science at Cairo University.
