A series of kidnappings, killings and the threat of bombings have pushed Lebanon to the brink of total instability, writes Andrew Bossone in Beirut After the kidnapping of a group of Shia pilgrims in Syria in early August, the members of a Lebanese Shia family responded by kidnapping a group of Syrians and a number of foreigners in Lebanon, prompting some Gulf countries and Turkey to instruct their citizens to leave the country. Soon after, clashes broke out in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli for the fifth time this year between Alawite and Sunni militiamen supporting and opposing Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, leaving 17 dead and more than 120 wounded. The fact that government security forces failed in both the kidnappings and the clashes to stand up to the armed groups shows that the militias are more powerful than the military. The capture of former information minister Michele Samaha early in August as part of a plot to assassinate key religious and political figures only highlights Syria's power on Lebanese soil, since the bombs that were to be used originated in Damascus. "Lebanon is now living in a phase of waiting for something new to happen," said journalist Sarkis Abu Zeid. "What's happening with Michele Samaha and what's happening in Tripoli is a reflection of what's happening in Syria, emphasising that Lebanon and Syria are in the same arena of conflict." Lebanon was patched together after the Taif Agreement and Doha Accord that ended the earlier civil war, and it is based on sectarian political representation that started during the colonial French mandate. As a result, the Lebanese rely on a handful of confessional leaders to rule them. The last decade has produced two parties, 8 March and 14 March, that are largely based on their support for or opposition towards the government of Al-Assad in Syria. With such a clear-cut political division in Lebanon, and the escalating crisis in neighbouring Syria, the future of Lebanon remains uncertain. The Shia group Hizbullah, the strongest party in the country both militarily and politically, has no interest in changing either the Syrian or the Lebanese government precisely because this would diminish its own power domestically and regionally. "The fragile situation in Lebanon is the result of the conflicts in the Arab world and of what's happening in Syria," Abu Zeid said. "Instead of 8 March and 14 March being strong and preventing regional fights from affecting them, they are counting on what's happening regionally to define their destinies." Since both sides rely on the outcome of the crisis in Syria, Abu Zeid argues, they are both in tune with Hizbullah's slogan of "one walk, one destiny," which ties Lebanon to Syria. Meanwhile, the country is in a state of virtual political paralysis. While the government cannot ensure security, electricity, or clean food and water for the population, parliament has managed to give its members a salary raise and pass an indoor smoking ban to promote tourism. "This is a lame duck government, and it's not doing anything," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut. "But I don't think there's been a decision to let this government go, because if it goes the Lebanese will not be able to form another cabinet. [Lebanese Prime Minister Najib] Miqati spent seven months before he could form this cabinet, so if the cabinet falls now, we will not have another cabinet until the crisis ends in Syria." The formation of the current government began on the same day as the Egyptian revolution, 25 January 2011. That was Lebanon's "Day of Rage", when Hizbullah walked out of the government of former prime minister Saad Al-Hariri, creating a new coalition. This relies on Druze leader Walid Jumblatt remaining as part of Hizbullah's 8 March coalition. Although Jumblatt has been outspoken in his comments against the Syrian regime, analysts say that he is likely to remain in the government, at least until the outcome of the Syrian uprising has become clear. The deadlocked government has given many Lebanese the sense that they cannot rely on their current political leaders, many of them from decades-old dynasties, because they neither fulfill their responsibilities nor allow for reforms. Protests have had little effect, but some Lebanese are pushing for change nonetheless. Nadine Moawad, an activist in the feminist collective Nasawiya, has been calling for equal rights laws, for example, and she recently launched an initiative called "Take Back Parliament" to engage the Lebanese people more fully in politics. However, Moawad admits that presenting a progressive agenda with an emphasis on young and female candidates faces several challenges, particularly the country's sectarian system which has roots that are more than a century old. "It's mainly because this parliament, this lawmaking body, has been taken over by zoaama [leaders], such that all the parties in the war quickly became members of the parliament," she said. "We yell and we scream; we march to parliament and stand there like idiots, saying pass this law and pass that law, but they haven't and they won't." Lebanon today is in a mood of instability and uncertainty, where few want a return to the civil war and few agree if the end of Al-Assad in Syria will bring chaos back or not. Those currently in power are competing for control of the country, but none are challenging the sectarian system that put them there in the first place. Without any real threat to that system, Moawad believes that the only way forward is to try to subvert it and to use the ballot box to present alternatives. "The biggest challenge is not going to be the issues, because at election time everyone has great agendas and great speeches," Moawad said. "Instead, it will be getting people to take the leap of faith to trust a whole new bunch of people they've never seen before, that they've never met, and who have drastic new ideas to change things, and to give them their vote." "There's an inspirational aspect to it that needs to gain momentum, and that's going to be the key."
