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Jumblatt's shifting alliances
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 - 08 - 2009

Having severed ties with Lebanon's 14 March movement, is considering visiting Damascus, four years into feuding with the Syrian regime, writes Bassel Oudat
After announcing his intention to sever his alliance with Lebanon's 14 March forces, which was based on hostility to Syria, informed Syrian sources told the Arab press that Syrian authorities decided to halt the prosecution of Lebanese parliament member and prominent Druze leader , head of the Progressive Socialist Party. No Syrian official confirmation has been given, but it has been said that, "Syria remains open to Jumblatt."
Jumblatt -- one of Syria's greatest enemies after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri -- said earlier this month during the opening of his party's general assembly conference in Beirut that his alliance with the Lebanese majority, known as 14 March, "was driven by necessity, and must not continue". His words aroused considerable controversy among allies and enemies alike, especially Syria.
Jumblatt told his party's conference, the majority of participants being Druze, that the recent Lebanese parliamentary elections resulted in sectarian problems and must be discarded. At the conference Jumblatt denied rumours that he would visit Syria, saying he would announce any planned visit in advance. However, a leader of Syria's ruling Baath Party told Al-Ahram Weekly : "We understand that Jumblatt will renovate his house in Damascus, and this is a positive sign that he may be allowed to enter Syria. But will he be received formally or simply as an Arab citizen?"
Differences between Jumblatt and Syria exacerbated after Hariri's assassination in 2005. Syria was accused of murdering Hariri and Jumblatt demanded a withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon immediately. This was when Jumblatt made his alliance with the 14 March coalition, which includes the Sunni Future Movement, led by Hariri's son, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Christian Lebanese Forces and the Christian Phalange Party. This coalition confronted groups allied with Syria, which include Hizbullah, the Shia Amal Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun.
In December 2005, confrontations between Jumblatt and Syria intensified. Jumblatt, in an interview with CNN, called for the overthrow of the Syrian regime and punishment of "the sick man in Damascus", in reference to President Bashar Al-Assad. Jumblatt said, "As long as Al-Assad remains in power, the Middle East will never be stable." Anyone who criticised the Syrian regime and its hegemony, Jumblatt said, "will be killed by Bashar Al-Assad's regime".
Jumblatt further accused Syria of killing his father, Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt, as well as a number of journalists and politicians, including President Rene Moawad, Lebanese Mufti Hassan Khaled, Rafiq Al-Hariri, Samir Kassir, George Hawi and Gibran Tueni.
Kamal Jumblatt, in his time the most prominent Druze leader, was assassinated in 1977, one year after Syrian troops entered Lebanon. President Rene Moawad was assassinated after his election as president in 1989. Prime Minister Hariri along with Hawi, Kassir and Tueini were all assassinated in 2005, when Syrian armed forces withdrew from Lebanon at the request of UN Security Council.
In February 2006 a Syrian military prosecutor filed a lawsuit against Jumblatt on charges of conspiring to overthrow the Syrian regime and inciting foreign armies to occupy Syria. This followed statements Jumblatt had made to The Washington Post, calling on the US to occupy Syria, as it had Iraq, and to topple the Syrian regime, describing Syria's president as a "terrorist" and accusing the Syrian regime of killing Lebanese politicians. It is the first lawsuit raised against a Lebanese political figure in Syria. According to Syrian law, if found guilty as charged, Jumblatt could face life imprisonment with hard labour.
Analysts say Syria has wanted to make sure of Syrian Druze loyalty to the regime, so Syrian minister of Religious Endowments and the Grand Mufti of Egypt visited the Druze community headquarters in southern Syria in the city of Swaida. In this visit authorities discussed with Sheikh Hussein Garboua the possibility of the Druze issuing a statement of dissent with Jumblatt. Some Syrian Druze visited Jumblatt secretly, assuring him of their support and their hope that the situation between him and Syria improves. Syrian sources point out that Syria's disagreement with Jumblatt is in his political role as president of the Progressive Socialist Party, not as leader of the Druze community.
About 90 per cent of Syrian Druze live in the southern province of Swaida. The remainder live in different parts all over Syria. Syrian Druze have strong ties to Druze living on Mount Lebanon with many Druze emigrating from Mount Lebanon to Syria during Lebanon's civil war.
The military's investigative judge issued an arrest warrant addressed to Interpol to bring Jumblatt to Syria. A Syrian source said that Syria decided to issue the arrest warrant because of a "lack of cooperation of Lebanese authorities". This decision came despite the knowledge that Jumblatt has parliamentary immunity in Lebanon and that Interpol does not get involved in political issues. One of Jumblatt's ministers said that Interpol would deal with this arrest warrant "as it does with other arrest warrants issued by dictatorships".
The dispute continued, and Jumblatt held Syria responsibility for the bloody aftermath of Nahr Al-Bared in Lebanon. He also accused Syria of funding and training Fatah Al-Islam, a group that killed Lebanese soldiers. Jumblatt considered Nahr Al-Bared part of a larger scheme to ignite civil war in Lebanon and to prevent the formation of an international tribunal for assassinated Prime Minister Hariri. At the beginning of the year, the two parties had come to a truce of sorts, and then came the Jumblatt "bomb": the end of his alliance with the Lebanese parliamentary majority that is hostile to Syria. A media flurry started about a supposed upcoming visit to Syria.
Syria does not seem to be paying much attention to Jumblatt's manoeuvres, simply saying that its doors are "open to all Lebanese that desire the unity of Lebanon and good relations with Syria". Official sources said that recent shifts in the Lebanese political arena represent "an internal Lebanese affair between opposition and majority parties. Syria is not interested in Lebanon's political alliances. The only thing that interests Syria is forming a national unity government." Another Syrian official said that Jumblatt "has changed his political tune in order to ensure passage to Damascus."
There is no doubt that a deep wound has been left by Jumblatt's conflict with the Syrian leadership, and that it requires special treatment. Some believe that Jumblatt's decision was motivated by his close relationship with the Syrian Druze. The true reasons for his change of alliances are difficult to decipher. Jumblatt said a few days ago that, "protection of Druze must be achieved through Arab open-mindedness towards Palestine, and therefore this protection can only come from Syria."


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