When the dust of the electoral race settles, there will probably be no seismic changes on the political landscape: five commentators provide Assem El-Kersh with an early reading of the results What will the elections change? Salama Ahmed Salama I expect no surprises. Everyone can safely predict that the NDP will stay in power. The Wafd Party will replace the Muslim Brothers as the spearhead of the opposition in parliament, but the balance of power will stay intact. Salah Eissa In such circumstances it is not easy to precisely predict what the outcome of the parliamentary poll will be. The competition is taut and the race is tight. And the number of contestants in the various constituencies is unprecedented. This will lead to the fragmentation of the vote ending in a round off. Wahid Hamid Anything is possible, and the results are not known in advance. One can predict a specific change, but who will win and who will lose will depend, as always, on tribal affinities, the influence of families and particular services offered to particular electorates, along with bribes and vote-buying practices and the like. Amr El-Shobaky The NDP winning is a forgone conclusion; there will be no fundamental change in the political landscape. The main reason for this is that the NDP is still connected to the state apparatus despite the reforms that have been undertaken. This means that the competing parties will be facing the state which does not allow the rotation of power. Jehad Ouda One can foretell the general direction of the results. The percentage of victory is another matter altogether. The new parliament will possibly reflect a bigger presence for the legal parties, with more than 75 per cent of the seats going to the ruling NDP. Who will win? Salama Ahmed Salama Politically, legally and realistically, everything points to a landslide victory by the NDP, taking some 400 seats including the majority of seats allocated to women. The Wafd will come second, it will be "allowed" 60-70 seats as per an unwritten deal with the NDP. The opposition will take some 100-120 seats, the majority going to the Wafd, with the rest going to the Tagammu Party and independent candidates. Salah Eissa The NDP will remain in the forefront, garnering an overwhelming majority. The ruling party will not secure less than 70 per cent of the seats in the new parliament. The party has embarked on the contest from the start with the aim of capturing at least three-quarters of the seats. The NDP's candidates have it all: money, influence, family connections and tribal support. The second runner up will be the Wafd with a possible win of 20-25 seats, riding on the back of its recent reforms and the new vitality in its performance having elected a new leader. This leaves the independents with about 15 seats and the leftist Tagammu with another eight. Wahid Hamid My prediction is that the NDP will win by a comfortable majority, with over 65 per cent of the seats, with the rest of the cake divided between the Wafd -- which commands much more power after the changes that took place inside it -- followed by those I call "real independents", with 30 and 25-30 seats respectively, and then Tagammu which I think will take seven-10 seats; this despite the fact that there will probably be a round-off in several constituencies. Amr El-Shobaky The NDP will cover the two thirds required for the first round thus boosting its prospects for the second round. But internal squabbles among its large number of candidates will no doubt affect organisational cohesion. On the list of winners I would also add businessmen affiliated with the party, because their influence will have the upper hand. The Wafd will come second, with 20-25 seats following its strong promotional campaign and the new blood that has been pumped into it, though it has yet to change from within. Non-NDP independent candidates will emerge with 20 seats, while other opposition parties -- Tagammu, the Nasserist and Ghad Party -- will gain maybe 10 seats altogether. Jehad Ouda All legitimate parties will make inroads to a degree. The NDP will grab between 75 and 80 per cent as the only party fielding candidates in all constituencies, helped by a comprehensive national programme along with tailored plans for each constituency. In turn, the Wafd may win 30 seats benefiting from its new democratic façade. A number of medium-sized parties including Tagammu and the Nasserist will find a place among the winners in the new parliament, while independent non-Brothers could garner 30-40 seats and might eventually join one or the other parties. Who will lose the most? Salama Ahmed Salama Strong pressures on the part of the state, together with the failure of Brotherhood MPs (the 88) to establish their credentials and the absence of a clear political agenda despite the seemingly attractive slogan of "Islam is the Solution" will lead to a dramatic drop in the number of seats their candidates will take this time round. Many MPs were not sufficiently enabled to perform their role adequately. Salah Eissa The Muslim Brotherhood is likely to lose a big chunk of its 88 seats in the last parliament, coming third with 20 seats at most. The reason is their unsatisfactory performance in parliament and their failure to come up with serious proposals for change. This time round they will not get the protest vote that fuelled their rise in 2005. Wahid Hamid No doubt the greatest loser will be the Muslim Brothers, with their base reduced from 88 to perhaps 10-15 seats now that they have significantly lost their credibility and it became clear that their role in parliament was marginal. Add to the list pressures from the government and the fact that the NDP has managed to outdo them by providing direct services to constituencies. Amr El-Shobaky The Muslim Brothers will not maintain their edge as the leading opposition power. Their loss is likely due not only to repeated security crackdowns but also their vague programme and failure to come up with a discourse convincing to society or win a new following. Jehad Ouda The real weight of the Brothers never exceeded 35 MPs. Their big scores five years ago will not be repeated. Their share will shrink to a meagre 12 seats a distant third thus reflecting a drop in their popularity and the impact of their internal divisions. How fair will the elections be? Salama Ahmed Salama The scope within which they may be rigged will be no different from previous elections. I am expecting security intervention and unlawful practices by candidates. I am also expecting violence and counter-violence on a greater scale. This is not to mention that the Higher Election Commission still does not have sufficient independence and some of its decisions are never implemented. Salah Eissa There might be limited administrative intervention due to the newly adopted regulations. Candidates infighting will probably lead to possible rigging of the results. The Brothers' hints at violence remain empty threats. Wahid Hamid If the government lives up to its word the elections will be fair. The results of the first round of voting and whether or not they are rigged will determine many things including the possibility that there will be rigging all across the electorate in the final round. I expect there will be violence, especially in the provinces and I expect that supporters of the Muslim Brothers and businessmen candidates will be responsible for it. Amr El-Shobaky There will be complex processes of intervention and rigging in which everyone will take part: voters and candidates as well as the administration. There will also be thuggery and vote buying. The scale of violence may be significantly greater than in 2005, with everyone egged on against everyone else. Jehad Ouda The new measures to regulate the elections are tough enough. They virtually close the door to attempts at wide-scale rigging with the continuation of a degree of judicial supervision and the transfer of the vote counting process to schools and sporting clubs instead of police stations. The stage is set for a more reassuring atmosphere. Will many people vote? Salama Ahmed Salama Huge efforts are being made to encourage people to vote, and my prediction is that at least 30 per cent of eligible voters will be participating. The rest will not have enough confidence in the fairness of the elections, and many voters have no knowledge of the abilities and history of the candidates. Salah Eissa The turnout is expected to be slightly higher this time and will likely be around 29 per cent of the eligible voters taking part. Wahid Hamid The ordinary citizen is the true voter, but he may not find his way to the ballots whether due to discontent, despair or lack of initiative. In the best case scenario no more than seven-eight million (out of 40 million eligible) voters will participate, yet no elections are credible with less than a third of the electorate casting votes. Amr El-Shobaky I would rule out a high turnout. The percentage of participation may not exceed 25 per cent of eligible voters, due to a general lack of confidence in the electoral process and the capacity for the rotation of authority, besides the indifference of the majority of the population and the lack of debate between fully articulated political programmes. Jehad Ouda The participation will be much higher due to the NDP's mobilisation plan and a general sense of the importance of the event. About 50 to 60 per cent of the registered voters will take part this Sunday. The prospect will be even higher in the last round. Additional reporting Mohamed Abdel-Baky
