Where the new year is concerned, Assem El-Kersh tells us all we could know For man was created weak -- Quran From start to finish, the story of 2010 was punctuated by sound and echo: from happy days to the boom of the vuvuzela, which never stopped all through the World Cup in South Africa, to stifling nights marked by sighs of regret from thousands of Egyptians during repeated power cuts that imposed darkness on entire neighbourhoods at the height of summer; and from the angry growling of airline passengers delayed because of the Iceland volcano to the prayers of the 33 Chilean workers trapped underground in the darkness of the mines. The grieving and wailing of an entire nation struck by an earthquake which, in a matter of seconds, deprived Haiti of tens of thousands of its children found despondent echoes, more recently, in Pakistan, where the cries for help of those swept up by the worst flood to occur there in 80 years were in contrast to the terrible silence of those buried underground in the China earthquake. The rumbling of arms deafened everyone's ears non-stop in pointless battles at open fronts, from Afghanistan to Iraq to the occupied territories, while in the midst of Cairo protesters experimented with new ways to attract attention by banging pots and pans while they stood on the pavements of the People's Assembly. In the Holy Lands, thankfully, it was the allahu akbar recited in unison by millions of pilgrims on the big day of the hajj that stood out. Still, the loudest sound in the world was in the whispers of American diplomats and their interlocutors, hitherto kept safe in secret reports on what was discussed in murmurs behind closed doors -- which WikiLeaks turned into an enormous scandal with unprecedented storms of embarrassment for the parties involved. But the reverberations of 2010 will sooner or later dissipate and the majority of us will forget some or most of what came to pass in its course. Some will benefit from the lessons of the year while others put them behind their backs while they move on ahead. The one thing that should not be left to the unreliability of memory is the lesson that people -- whether in this year or any other -- are ultimately far weaker than nature and that technology will always triumph over government. Hatred, it should be added, usually beats reason. Every now and again, by way of change perhaps, some party will have a breakthrough to some victory in a sudden spark that manages to overcome the thickening clouds, providing a fleeting chance to defeat time and distance, the law of speed, of gravity and Murphy's Law in a space journey, an Olympic record or an invention that brings people closer. But briefly, only briefly, could such a stray spark alter the balance of power. *** In the everlasting cycle of life, 2010 was no exception: the eternal combination of human violence and geological absurdity was complete; changes of heart and transformations of markets; political intrigues and technological marvels... And all that remains of the year, as always, are pending issues and innumerable questions that we have been unable to resolve whether because they cannot be answered or because of lack of effort or initiative. However much we know of the future, our destiny is still determined by the unknown; every hour, every minute could bring a complete transformation to our lives while we are unable to predict its place or time. It is impossible to tell what our share will be of happiness or grief, but this must not prevent us from trying to find out where indeed we will be with the lowest margin of error. And there are some news we can predict to some extent and find cause to be optimistic or pessimistic about. In either case, we will have more knowledge of what will stay as it is than we do of what will change. In this region, for example -- a place where, as everyone intuits, little will change in the next 12 months (the only exception being Sudan, which will sadly not remain intact) -- we will go on talking of a peace process while there is neither peace nor process. We will resume our attempts at convincing the warring brothers in Ramallah and Gaza to behave as brothers towards each other. While symptoms of paralysis continue to dog many Arab states, Israel will still overpower the Palestinians. The West will not stop targeting Iran, Iran will not stop attempting to expand. America will keep its throne, and China will go on growing. As of now we can say with confidence that the population in Egypt will rise by a million or more in the course of the year and the world population will surpass seven billion. It is self-evident that traffic jams on the streets of Cairo will remain as they are, and so will inflation. We also know that the coincidence of the figure 11 in all three parts of the date -- on 11 November 2011 -- will not recur for 100 years. When you type the date on the keyboard, you will save yourself the move from 1 to 0, as well! We also know that the presidential elections will probably bear no surprises and that the opposition will remain angry and go on venting its anger on talk shows and whenever it has the chance. The NDP will stay in power, and love of football and smoking will remain the driving forces of many lives. On the whole we will no doubt be taken aback by short- sighted decisions and wake up to catastrophes that could be avoided if people were more conscientious about what they did. We will remain suspicious of everything the government does, while the government itself will remain convinced no one can do better. Everyone will swing between enthusiasm and depression -- not always with very good reason. We know in advance that the major problems in our lives will not vanish overnight, nor will our own shortcomings and the many fault lines in our performance however optimistic or well- meaning we are towards the new year. There will be those among us who regard brute power as the only means to secure rights which they are denied. Dozens of our young men will cross the Mediterranean on badly calculated adventures in search of a better life while most of us confuse priorities, focussing on petty matters, swallowing what rumours we are fed however incredible they are. But we will all go on talking about change and doing little to achieve it, lamenting the passing of better times without moving to retrieve them, and observing with insufficient concern the rise in signs of apathy, lack of nobility and sense of belonging. Stories of those who offer their services to Israel and of men who harass women given half a chance will easily go unnoticed. We will not be pained as much as we should be by the social space that Facebook eats up within our own houses. The early news dispatch for 2011 is endless, but it lacks an important item on the development among Egyptians of a sense of urgency about taking matters into their own hands rather than endlessly drifting without a rudder.
