How was Mubarak's last prime minister able to trounce the pundits and make it to the run-off? Gamal Essam El-Din looks for answers Pundits were left busy revising their predictions after the first round of voting in the presidential elections led to a run-off round between the Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi and Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last prime minister, a former minister of aviation and a man who enjoys strong ties with the military. Opinion polls had consistently underestimated Mursi's support, though given the Brotherhood's impressive organisational base his strong performance was not as surprising as Shafik's. Only in the last two weeks of campaigning, says Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) political analyst Gamal Abdel-Gawad, did Shafik begin to garner mass support, mostly at the expense of Amr Moussa, whom many opinion polls placed as the front runner. "Shafik struck a chord with voters when he introduced himself as the candidate capable of restoring stability and security after a year and a half of bloody conflicts and worsening economic conditions," says Abdel-Gawad. "Increasingly voters were put off by the behavior of the revolutionary movements which toppled Mubarak, and the dismal performance of Islamist forces in parliament. Many citizens believe that rather than join in political life and compete for seats in parliament the young revolutionary movements preferred street confrontations, attempting to storm the buildings of the Interior Ministry, parliament and Ministry of Defence and constantly raising the slogan 'down with military rule'." "It was the irresponsibility of youth revolutionary movements that drove many citizens to vote for Shafik, a man with a strong personality who is capable of fighting chaos on the streets and containing the Islamists," says lawyer Ragaai Attia. "Shafik is half military and half civilian, and cannot really be considered fulul [a Mubarak regime remnant]. He is a statesman who can impose discipline and this is what many ordinary Egyptians liked about him." The dismal performance of Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist forces in parliament, argues Attia, has left many Egyptians with no choice but to vote for Shafik as a counterweight. "Egyptians saw how Islamists used their majority in parliament to tailor laws to serve their own interests and political ends, promoting Mursi and launching hostile campaigns against Shafik. Their tactics backfired. They helped rather than harmed Shafik." The first round saw Mursi lose to Shafik in the densely populated Nile Delta governorates which have long been a Brotherhood stronghold. Shafik won in Mursi's birthplace governorate Sharqiya, as well as in Gharbiya, Daqahliya and Menoufiya. He came second after the leftist candidate Sabahi and before Amr Moussa in several other governorates. "Much of the vote was intended to punish the Muslim Brotherhood," believes Attia. "By voting for Shafik in such numbers the electorate was sending a strong protest message to the Brotherhood." Some commentators see Shafik's strong showing as testimony to the continued influence of NDP diehards in several governorates, especially in the Nile Delta. In Gharbiya, where Shafik came first and Mursi a dismal fifth, it is no secret that members of the now dissolved NDP who lost seats in the previous parliamentary elections to Brotherhood candidates opted to use their familial and tribal connections to back Shafik. Other sources claim that elements within the National Security Forces joined forces with NDP stalwarts to turn the tables against Mursi. Copts are also assumed to have played a role in pushing Shafik into the run-off. Semi-official figures place the number of Copts in Egypt at between 10 and 15 million. They constitute, says Abdel-Gawwad, a significant bloc that can help decide election results. "Christians in general, and Copts in particular, were divided between Shafik and Moussa," says Rami, a Coptic bookseller in Cairo's Ramses Street. "The advice of Orthodox priests and bishops was clear: vote either for Shafik or Moussa. I think at least 80 per cent of Copts voted for Shafik." "Most Copts concluded that Moussa as president would not be strong enough to stand up to a group like the Muslim Brotherhood," argues Rami. "Shafik is a man with a strong personality and has always been an open critic of the Brotherhood and this is what most Copts liked about him." Copts who fear the creation of a theocratic state in Egypt should Mursi win now have no option but to vote for Shafik. In his first press conference after the initial results and ahead of the crucial run-off battle next month, Shafik adopted a conciliatory approach. Keen to distance himself from Hosni Mubarak, Shafik vowed that there could be no return and Egypt was entering a new era. He paid tribute to the 25 January Revolution, telling the youth movements at the forefront of the uprising against Mubarak: "Your revolution has been hijacked and I am committed to bringing it back. The elections would not have happened without the glorious revolution and those who made sacrifices and died for it." "I promise all Egyptians we will start a new era. There will be no return. We do not want to reproduce the old regime. The past is dead." Shafik added that he was "open to dialogue" with all political forces while at the same time "determined" to build an "alliance with the people". He told one television channel that he had no objection to the Muslim Brotherhood forming a cabinet under his rule. Shafik's primary message, though, remains focussed on ordinary citizens, as he attempts to reinforce his image as the law and order candidate: "At the start of the campaign I promised security. Your millions of votes say that you want that and do not want our country to sink into chaos. My promise to restore security still applies, according to the law and with respect for human rights." Shafik also highlighted his military background by thanking the army for ensuring fair elections which "reaffirmed their historic role". However conciliatory he sounds now, many analysts believe Shafik will use the second round to stoke fears that his conservative opponent Mohamed Mursi will restrict freedoms were he elected. "Shafik will focus on the fact that he is the advocate of a civilian state as opposed to the religious state the Muslim Brotherhood and their candidate are seeking," says Abdel-Gawwad. "This could strike a chord with the intelligentsia and cultural elite who fear Egypt could turn into a religious dictatorship." Shafik still faces legal obstacles, including the anticipated ruling of the Supreme Constitutional Court next month on the disenfranchisement law. Passed by the Islamist-dominated parliament in April to prevent remnants of the Mubarak regime from contesting presidential elections, the PEC only allowed Shafik back in the race after he filed an appeal against the law.
