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Swing vote
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 05 - 2012


By Salama A Salama
The elections have turned into a big puzzle for electors. Up to the last hours before the polls open, their choices remain shrouded in uncertainty. The debates, propaganda, appearances and other forms of campaigning by the presidential hopefuls have only added to the confusion.
Undecided voters seem to be suspicious of everyone. And the spectacular rise of Ahmed Shafik in the polls (some polls put him ahead not just of Mohamed Mursi and Hamdeen Sabahi but also of Amr Moussa and Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh) are a sign of the turbulent mood in the country.
With voting patterns shifting like sand dunes, pollsters estimate that nearly 37 per cent of electors cannot make up their minds. We don't know much about those undecided, or their political preferences.
At first, only Abul-Fotouh and Moussa were ahead. Then came the television debate, and the following media analysis to confront the voters with a definite choice: either you go for a seasoned statesman with a record in making tough decisions and with extensive international connections, which is Amr Moussa, or you go for a middle-of-the-road candidate with moderate Islamist and revolutionary credentials and remarkable popularity among the youth, which is Abul-Fotouh.
In either case, you'll find someone to tell you that your choice is wrong.
For some, Moussa is too close to the old regime, and for others Abul-Fotouh is a too much of an Islamist. How about Hamdeen Sabahi then? A lot of writers came out on behalf of Sabahi, just to spite Abul-Fotouh, Shafik, and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Amid the turmoil of expectations, one cannot rule out the systematic power of the Muslim Brotherhood's political outreach, now working on behalf of Mohamed Mursi of the Freedom and Justice Party. The Brotherhood has a colossal mobilisation machine with immense presence in the countryside, and it has used this machine to turn Mursi into a frontrunner. The cost, however, was high. The Brotherhood's electoral conduct has made it look greedy, thus undermining its cause.
Recent attempts by parliamentarians to change the law of the Supreme Constitutional Court and interfere in the work of the judiciary brought back memories of earlier attempts to change Al-Azhar's law. Attempts of this kind turn a lot of people against the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary majority, which appears eager to demolish existing state institutions and replace them with new ones that are easier to dominate. This is not the kind of perception you want people to have of you when you're running for president, right?
Shafik, meanwhile, seems to have won considerable support in the countryside. This, combined with the drop in enthusiasm for Abul-Fotouh among the youth, has brought an unexpected change in the electoral scene.
Most likely, the nation will remain confused until the last moment. We don't know which way the swing vote will go. A lot of people will vote for candidates who don't fit their expectations. The size of the protest vote is going to be considerable, as few are completely satisfied with the existing candidates.
It would be interesting to see how many people will turn up at the polls. The turnout was nearly 60 per cent in the parliamentary elections. Are we going to match this number in the presidential elections? If we do, despite the 37 per cent of undecided votes, it will be a sign that this nation expects to have its voice heard, regardless of who is in power.


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