As the balance of politics in the region turns against Israel, there may be one thing that it has in reserve: vast new discoveries of natural gas, writes Saleh Al-Naami It has become a noticeable trend: retired Israeli generals mostly tend to gravitate towards the same field -- the energy sector. Especially as top executives in gas exploration companies that have much to offer in light of the discovery of large gas reserves in the East and Mediterranean Sea. These findings compelled Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to predict that Israel will become a gas exporting country, leading an economic boom in Israel in the coming four decades. The discoveries were a relief for decision-makers in Tel Aviv who hoped that these gas reserves would enable Israel to overcome the repercussions of a possible decision by Egypt to stop exporting gas to the Hebrew state in the future. As cited in a paper presented to the Doha Institute in November 2011, Tamar is one of the key gas fields located 90 kilometres west of the coastline of Haifa, where natural gas reserves are estimated at 184 billion cubic metres. The development cost is estimated at $2.8 billion and gas production in this field could begin within a few years. Tamar gas would cover 30 per cent of Israel's gas needs for 20 years, but the biggest and more valuable field is Leviathan where preliminary prospecting estimates gas reserves to be 453 billion cubic metres. Although no exploration has been done there yet, Alwan gas field close to the maritime border with Lebanon is also predicted to hold large volumes of gas reserves. These new discoveries are pertinent because of predictions that the fields of Yam Tethys that currently supply 67 per cent of the gas used by the state-owned power company will dry up by 2014. The discoveries are also of critical importance to Israel's economy since they come at a time when there is greater demand on gas in the energy and industrial sectors. According to statistics by Israel's Ministry of Infrastructure, Israeli consumption of gas in 2009 reached 4.2 billion cubic metres compared to 2.7 cubic metres in 2007, and around 1.6 billion cubic metres in 2005. In 2009, 40 per cent of electricity in Israel was generated by natural gas, which is similar to the UK. The state-owned electricity company predicts that within two decades, 60 per cent of the electricity will be generated from natural gas. Sources in the energy industry assert that without these new discoveries, Israel would be forced to use diesel and oil as fuel within three years, which would raise the cost of producing energy fourfold. Israel hopes that the new gas discoveries would also improve its ability to confront the coming water crisis by building more water desalination plants that are powered by cheap fuel. Ishmael Evan, an expert on energy economics in Israel, believes that decision-makers in Tel Aviv cannot continue to rely on Egyptian gas in light of the transformations that took place in the country, and amid calls by political circles in Cairo to stop exporting gas to Israel. Evan noted that Israelis now realise that after the Egyptian revolution it is not guaranteed that Egyptian gas will continue to flow in their direction. Also, in light of charges regarding the sale of Egyptian gas to Israel as part of the trial of former president Hosni Mubarak and key figures of his regime. Also, bombings that target gas pipelines near Arish that deliver Egyptian gas to Israel. Meanwhile, Israelis believe that importing natural gas from other states is not compatible with the strategic conditions that Israel is experiencing right now. For security and strategic reasons, Tel Aviv prefers not to import vital commodities such as water, gas and sources of power from abroad to avoid shortages in these supplies in case war breaks out or if they are delayed because of regional or international developments. From a strategic perspective, Israel believes that in case of war the ships carrying fuel to Israel could hesitate about delivering it to Israeli ports to avoid being caught in the crossfire. It also believes that fuel supplies to Israel will be affected by wars in other regions, especially when exporter states are politically unstable such as when the Islamic revolution occurred in Iran in 1979 at a time when Iran was the primary fuel exporter to Israel. Israel worries that Arabs might resort to energy as a weapon once again, as they did in 1973. Undoubtedly, deteriorating relations with Turkey will negatively affect any future Israeli plans to import gas from abroad, since Turkey plays a pivotal role in gas economics although it is not a producer country. Its location makes it a link between gas producer states and gas consuming countries, such as the gas pipeline from Russia to Europe that passes through Turkey. Israel had intended to buy gas from Russia via a pipeline that connects through Turkey, and Tel Aviv had held talks with Moscow on the matter. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was enthusiastic about the project and in 2009 proposed building a pipeline through Turkey to Israel and other countries in the region. Turkey, however, was not so keen about the project, even though relations with Israel at the time were good. Turkey's minister of energy said that his country would not work on regional projects with Israel until relations were normalised between Tel Aviv and all regional capitals. The new gas discoveries could also make conditions more volatile in the region, especially between Israel and Hizbullah. The moment the Israeli government announced the discovery of gas in Alwan, Tamar and Leviathan fields, Lebanese authorities hurriedly asserted that these fields lie partly in their national waters. This stance was held by President Michel Suleiman, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and then-Energy Minister Jibran Basil. Israel did not delay in its response to the Lebanese position; its right-wing extremist Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau warned that his country would use force to defend what he called "its right to use the natural energy sources that were discovered in its territorial waters". The case gained another dimension when the secretary general of Hizbullah, Hassan Nasrallah, warned that the resistance would not sit idly by and allow Israel to exploit gas deposits lying beneath Lebanese waters. It seemed as if the new gas discoveries would be yet another source of conflict between Lebanon and Israel. Things were complicated further when the UN denied Lebanon's request for UN intervention in the dispute, which Israel interpreted as a practical adoption of the Israeli position. In an effort to undercut attempts by Lebanon to bring international bodies to its cause, the Israeli government swiftly demarcated its maritime borders with Lebanon and presented a map of its borders to the UN and US, along with maps submitted by Lebanon to the UN. As expected, Israel's maps included not only included the newly discovered gas fields but also other areas that the Israeli Ministry of Infrastructure believes contain additional deposits. An Israeli expert in the field of maritime border demarcation, Professor Gideon Biger, suggested that the main criterion guiding the demarcation of Israel's maritime borders with Lebanon was that these borders should include a map of Israel's vital interests. However, what really threatens the credibility of the map submitted by Israel are the results of the investigation that the Israeli newspaper Calcalist conducted, which confirmed that since its declaration of independence in 1948, the Israeli government has deliberately avoided producing a map that clearly displays its maritime borders to evade any requests for compensation from neighbouring countries, especially Cyprus, because such a map would show that Israel has been quietly exploiting areas of the sea that do not fall under its jurisdiction, and for many decades. Washington rushed to contain the situation and prevent it from escalating into an explosive regional conflict between Lebanon and Israel, and thus adopted two main tactics. On the one hand, Washington adopted the Lebanese position on the specific issue of maritime borders; on the other, it swiftly appointed diplomat Frederic Hof as a special liaison to solve the dispute between the two sides, aided by State Department maritime map expert Raymond Milefsky. Hof warned Israel against turning the issue into a political one, and recommended that they present their version of the border to the UN, beseeching them to deal with the matter as a technical one that is solvable, with all sides benefiting from the solution. In short, the new gas discoveries will not only be utilised to boost economic conditions, but also to advance Tel Aviv's ability to deal with the consequences of the Arab revolutions.
