Syria has become the backdrop for a showdown between Russia and the US in the Middle East and a proxy for superpowers seeking to settle old scores and exercise influence, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus Russia has used its veto in the UN Security Council twice to block resolutions condemning the Syrian regime, thwarting efforts by the US and European countries to adopt an Arab-European resolution that corresponds to the Arab League initiative on the crisis in Syria. Moscow has chosen to side with the Syrian regime at a time when most other countries, including the US, are opposing the Syrian regime and criticising its use of military force to crackdown on the popular uprisings against the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad one year ago. However, though Russia has successfully opposed any resolution condemning Syria in the Security Council, General Assembly meetings have been an opportunity to divide the world into the two camps of those countries that support US and Arab efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis and those that agree with Russia's position and support the Syrian regime. Some 137 countries, including the US, approved a General Assembly resolution in support of the US-Arab plan, while only Russia and 11 other states opposed it, meaning that Russia was considerably outnumbered in the General Assembly by countries supporting the US, Europe and the Arab states. The US has sought to gather international support against Russia's position on Syria because it cannot get round Russia's veto power in the Security Council. However, it has also said that the failure of the Security Council to issue a resolution condemning Syria has been a failure by the UN body to perform its duties, indicating that the US may now take action outside the Security Council. Russia's insistence on vetoing resolutions critical of the Syrian regime, despite the majority of the international community being in favour of them, has caused the US and European and Arab states to declare they may begin to take action even without a Security Council resolution. Last week, an international conference was held in Tunisia to discuss ways of supporting the Syrian opposition despite the absence of a Security Council resolution. This conference, dubbed the "Friends of Syria", was supported by the US and boycotted by Russia, with US president Barack Obama saying that the US would use "all available means" to stop what he described as the massacres taking place in Syria. Obama urged the Syrian regime to step down, adding in an indirect message to Russia that it was "critical to reject double standards regarding the tragic events in Syria". For its part, Russia has accused foreign parties, among them the US, of instigating the unrest in Syria, an accusation which both Washington and the Syrian opposition reject. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has tried to justify Moscow's position by saying that it was forced to veto the resolutions in order to prevent the US from interfering in Syrian domestic affairs and to block any foreign intervention. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been more outspoken, saying some days ago that Russia would not alter its position on international issues like Syria and Iran to please the US. Russia's vetoes in the Security Council demonstrated that Moscow does not intend to be "the one who always says yes" to the US, he said. "I believe our position on Syria in the Security Council demonstrates that we do not intend to be followers," Putin said, claiming that the country's position on Syria underlined its independence as a key player on the world stage. However, the real reason behind Russia's stand is likely to be its desire to play a pivotal role as a world power in regional affairs and to help resolve Middle East problems its way. These aspirations would help propel it into the world arena beyond its traditional key role in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Over recent years, Russia has tried to exploit US failures on various fronts in the Middle East in order to carve out a role for itself in the region, especially after it has managed to stabilise its economy and has succeeded in reasserting its influence in its neighbourhood of Georgia, the Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and the former Soviet states. Russia succeeded in blocking the US from establishing missile bases in Eastern Europe in the Czech Republic and Poland, and it believes that participating in settling Middle East conflicts will help it to restore its role as a superpower, diminished after the fall of the former Soviet Union. In more immediate terms, Russia is also worried about a repetition of the Libyan scenario in Syria, during which it saw its influence eroded. Russia failed to win over the Libyan opposition, and because of its pro-Gaddafi position during the Libyan crisis it lost the opportunity to participate in rebuilding Libya. Russia does not want to see a rerun of the Libyan scenario in Syria that would exclude it and cause it to lose its last bastion on the Mediterranean and in the Middle East. Yet, Russia's present policies are risky, and over recent years it has lost much of its influence in the Arab region to the US, whose policies have succeeded where Russian ones have failed. Some observers believe that Russia may already have lost its influence in Syria, nurtured over more than five decades, because these ties are with the regime and not with the Syrian people. Some days ago, the London Times newspaper reported that Russia's support for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's regime "will cost it dearly", noting the anger felt towards Russia in the Arab world because of Moscow's positions on Syria. The newspaper added that the Russians should take action now if they want to avoid having even less influence in the Middle East after the fall of the al-Assad regime. Since the beginning of the protests in Syria, the US has been behind the opposition to the Al-Assad regime, perhaps because it has realised that the protests have turned into a revolutionary movement that cannot now be stopped. Washington has supported the main opposition blocs since the beginning of the uprising, supporting moves to cause Al-Assad to step down from power and more recently urging an end to the entire regime. The disparity in viewpoints between Russia and the Syrian opposition further complicates any solution to the Syrian crisis. Since their standpoints are at polar opposites, Russia has been unable to convince the opposition to start a dialogue with the regime under the auspices of Moscow, and some opposition forces in Syria have stopped talking to Russia altogether. Moscow's gamble on the Syrian regime and its president has also angered Syrian demonstrators, who have burned the Russian flag many times over the past year since the start of the uprising. Russia is currently the largest weapons exporter to Syria, and throughout the present unrest it has continued to send shipments of weapons to the Syrian regime. Critics say that this has helped the regime to remain in power, causing some other countries, led by the US, to indicate that they may now start to arm the opponents of the Syrian regime. At the same time, Syria also hosts a Russian naval facility on the Mediterranean coast that is a unique location for the Russian military overseas. There are no military ties between the US and Syria, and over the past decade relations between the two countries deteriorated to unprecedented lows. Damascus severed diplomatic ties with Washington as long ago as 1967 after the June War. The US has accused Syria of supporting radical movements in Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon and criticised it for its alliance with Iran and its alleged obstruction of regional peace. The gap between the two has grown to such an extent that observers feel that relations between the two countries could only be restored following a change in the Syrian regime. For its part, Russia has realised that its relationships with the Arab states are important, and it has tried to mend bridges with certain countries among them. Medvedev recently telephoned Saudi Arabian King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz and UAE leader Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan in order to explain why Russia had exercised its veto power in the Security Council. According to reports, Abdullah told the Russian leader that Saudi Arabia would not "abandon its moral and religious obligation towards events in Syria" and "any conversation about what is taking place is pointless." Russia's Foreign Ministry said that Moscow was ready to cooperate with UN organisations, the Arab League and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in order to reach a diplomatic solution in Syria. However, some observers now believe that the US and NATO could intervene in Syria after the Security Council failed to issue a resolution to end the bloodshed because of the Russian veto. The US and its allies could create so-called safe zones for Syrian refugees near the Turkish border, such observers say, and they could deliver humanitarian aid under military protection that could evolve into aerial protection for aid caravans from Turkey and Jordan. Such moves could be the prelude to the setting up of a no-fly zone in Syria that could pave the way to the overthrow of the regime. Perhaps Syria is expecting such moves from the US, which is why it has repeatedly warned any foreign power from interfering in Syrian affairs. Moscow has also threatened to take firm action should foreign intervention take place. While observers believe that the crisis in Syria is now acting as a backdrop to the settling of scores between the US and Russia, Putin could change his policies on Syria if he is elected as Russian president on 4 March, hoping to reach a settlement with the US on Syria that would safeguard the interests of both countries in Syria and the Middle East as a whole. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent statements warning against arming the Syrian opposition after the Tunisia conference could be a prelude to possible reconciliation with Russia, observers say.
