If all goes as planned Egypt should have its first freely elected president by 1 July, Dina Ezzat reports In a press conference held by the Higher Committee for Presidential Elections (HCPE) on Wednesday afternoon, and as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, an announcement was finally made for the date of the first ever free presidential elections in Egypt, due to start for Egyptian expats on 11 May and for voters in Egypt on 23 May. The final results of the first and second rounds will be announced on 21 June by which time Egyptians will know the name of their next president. That week will coincide with the verdict, subject to appeal, on ousted president Hosni Mubarak who is facing charges of abuse of power and of ordering the deliberate killing of demonstrators during the first few days of the 25 January Revolution that ended his three-decade rule in 18 days. "If all goes well then the elections should probably take place [around] 5 June but if something comes up, something unexpected, then we could see a delay of the elections," said MP and senior political analyst Emad Gad. Gad's talk of the "unexpected" is explained as either a coup within the ruling military's quarters or massive demonstrations due to one reason or the other. Massive demonstrations, according to sources in the government, should not be excluded if Mubarak is acquitted by the criminal court that has been trying him for close to eight months. An acquittal of all charges, say legal sources who are informed about the Mubarak case, is highly unlikely. However, Mubarak, according to the same sources, could be acquitted of the most serious charge of ordering the killing of peaceful demonstrators. Still, given that the court verdict would be subject to appeal, governmental sources are not expecting any major show of public outrage even if Mubarak is acquitted of the charge. This means that the presidential elections should not be directly influenced by the Mubarak trial. Members of the campaigns of the key presidential candidates expressed confidence that the scheduled plan for the transition of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will go ahead as scheduled. They argued that SCAF is well aware that it has become a high- risk, and not just a high-cost, political exercise to remain at the top of the executive pyramid where they have been since Mubarak stepped down on 11 February last year. And according to sources who are well informed on the debate within SCAF and the wider military role, there is a growing sense of awareness within SCAF and beyond that the current set-up is not sustainable. According to one of these sources, "there is a growing demand for SCAF to hand over power and to spare the military, and not just SCAF, from being further subject to public debate." The same source added, "there is another trend within the military, and it has presence within SCAF, that is in favour of continuing to rule the country by the military." However, he added that those who want to stick to power are not even in favour of keeping the current operation as it has been. They advocate a more affirmative power control by the military "for a few, maybe three years". The balance of power, according to the assessment of the protagonists, is in favour of handing over power to an elected civil president -- this does not include a candidate who had served in the army before -- by early July while sparing the military from being part and parcel of the public debate and for that matter of the public or even direct parliamentary scrutiny. Holding the elections is therefore more or less granted. It is how the elections will, or rather should, be conducted that is subject to several debates. The most debated element is related to the laws regulating the presidential elections. During this week, parliament was locked on with Article 28 of the presidential elections, which has a constitutional nature and can only be amended if put to a referendum. Article 28 gives the HCPE uncontested authority over the handling of the elections and its results as it makes it immune against any appeal. "To actually amend this article we need a process that could take up to six months which could delay the elections to early 2013 according to the plan that SCAF had in mind a few months ago before the plan was adjusted under firm public pressure," Gad suggested. Gad said that to avoid delay and to undermine the almost extra-judicial immunity of the HCPE, parliament proposed "an exit formula" to the Higher Constitutional Court which orders the counting of votes in each ballot box and for its results to be made available on the spot to each presidential candidate. This, Gad argued, is perceived by parliament as the best way to assure that presidential candidates -- who will officially present their credentials on 10 March -- receive results in a ballot station-by-station basis. As such, Gad said, there should be limited concern over the results to be announced by the HCPE. The main concern in many political quarters, including parliamentarians, presidential candidates and activists, is that the name of the announced president would be influenced by the inclinations of SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood, the highly influential political grouping whose political arm the Freedom and Justice Party has almost half the seats of both the lower and upper houses of parliament. This concern is stimulated by speculation over a possible deal between SCAF and the MB to lend their joint support to a candidate that could be to the liking of both and whose background would put him in a place to accommodate the demands of the two sides. A firm show of rejection of this possible deal by many political forces and almost all the key presidential candidates has almost, but not fully, eliminated the chance for the deal to be done. Sources with sufficient inroads into the MB and SCAF say that the two sides are still pondering the best way to fix the deal away from public fury. The increased number of potential candidates for the presidency is giving rise to speculation that the name of the next president who would be to the liking of SCAF and MB is still to be known. According to one source, SCAF had wanted support for Ahmed Shafik, an ex-military man who has demonstrated sufficient executive skills in his almost decade-long performance as minister of civil aviation under Mubarak and descendant of the family of Prophet Mohamed makes him one of Al-Ashraf -- something that senior political analyst Hassan Abu Taleb says is of influence especially in Upper Egypt "where there is clear respect for Shafik as one of the Ashraf." However, the MB is leaning more towards Mohamed Selim El-Awwa, a lawyer and an Islamist writer. Al-Awwa's association with the regime of Omar Bashir in Sudan, which stands accused before the International Criminal Court of crimes against humanity in Darfur, and his confused stance on the status of churches in Egypt, are not putting him in a favourable situation as an Islamist candidate, especially with the rocketing approving rates of Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, the ex-member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Gad and Abu Taleb agree that in fair and free elections it is Amr Moussa, the former secretary-general of the Arab League, and Abul- Fottouh, a medical doctor by profession, that stand a real chance of coming first and second with or without a re-run. "Therefore, one cannot be too charitable in interpreting the two consecutive attacks less than a week apart," said Gad. Abul-Fotouh was subject to a criminal attack by unidentified thugs while travelling on the ring road over the weekend, and in Sharqiya, Moussa's electoral conference on Monday was the scene of an exchange of violence between opponents and supporters. And despite the fact that Abu Taleb does not necessarily share the same concern of Gad, he agreed that the powers in favour of excluding these two, who have sufficient support in many, but of course different, quarters could have negative consequences on their campaigns, especially once the registration is complete. "One could expect a tough smear campaign and in the continued absence of a proper security performance one should obviously worry about physical attacks," Abu Taleb said. Moreover, Abu Taleb unlike Gad is not concerned about a sustained attempt to impose a presidential candidate as he sees it beyond the limitations of both SCAF and the MB -- notwithstanding the greater influence of the former -- to exclude all other forces in imposing a president away from any direct intervention in the outcome of the elections. The talk about an agreed candidate, as far as Abu Taleb is concerned, has been reduced to "an alleged show of power by the Muslim Brotherhood who wish to present themselves as the power that can make or break, but this is a phony image," he said. Meanwhile, Abu Taleb is not overly concerned about the increased number of filed candidates. "It does not really mean much and the key candidates are those who have been effectively running for months," Abu Taleb argued. Gad and Abu Taleb agree on the list with almost the same order: Moussa, Abul-Fotouh, Shafik, El-Awwa and Hazem Salah Abu Ismail -- the Salafi candidate who has yet to solicit the support of all the Salafist groups and parties -- and Hamdeen Sabahi, the Nasserist (left wing) whose name is yet to be proposed by the grouping of the leftist parties. So far, several activists have expressed their desire to run for president including Khaled Ali, the admired lawyer and rights activist and Hassan Nafaa, the political science professor, commentator and activist. Abu Taleb is also predicting more names to come up out of the 100-member committee, a grouping of liberal figures essentially, and of the 50-member committee, an almost parallel grouping of the first. "It is too late in the game to try to introduce any new names whether under the banner of an agreed candidate or that of the revolution. The run-up to the elections is already on," argued Abu Taleb.
