The Arab Spring is finally arriving in Sudan, discovers Asmaa El-Husseini The Sudanese police last week raided the dormitories of Khartoum University, arresting 400 students. Some of those arrested were later released, but this did not stop the students from pressing on with a campaign of protests that is not confined to the capital. The government blames student unrest on its usual foes, primarily the Communist Party and Hassan Al-Turabi's Popular Congress Party. Al-Turabi, once a close associate of President Omar Al-Bashir, is now saying that revolution "cannot be too far into the future". The Khartoum University crisis started on 26 December, with protests over hikes in tuition fees. Later on, the students joined forces with the Manasir tribes in the north, who claim that the government construction of dams is going to ruin their villages. The student demonstrations picked up pace after the murder of Khalil Ibrahim, the rebel leader of the Justice and Equality Movement in Darfur. Ibrahim used to be part of Sudan's mainstream Islamist movement before joining the fighters in Darfur. Seeing that the students were boycotting the exams and calling for its downfall, the government has shut down Khartoum university and cancelled the exams altogether. The recent raid on the dormitories was meant to pre-empt a major student gathering. The Sudanese have staged several revolts in the past few decades, overthrowing their governments in October 1964 and April 1985. Today, protesters seem to be inspired by the successive revolutions in the Arab world, and their successful conclusion in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. The worsening economic situation, the political impasse with the south, and insurgencies on more than one front also suggest that change is only a matter of time. Since the secession of South Sudan, the country has lost 75 per cent of its oil revenue, the Sudanese pound has dropped, and inflation runs at 48 per cent. Although most Sudanese agree that change is inevitable, some hope for it to be conducted without confrontation, by members from inside the regime or at least from the circles of the Islamic movement on which the regime relies for survival. This scenario is not to be ruled out, considering the fact that key Islamists have written five memorandums detailing the manner and direction of required changes and referring to "grave mistakes" committed by the regime. Another possibility is that of the regime being overpowered by its military opponents. So far four rebel movements have formed a common front aiming to overthrow Al-Bashir. This is not exactly good news for the inhabitants of Khartoum and the northern stretches of the country, who fear that the rebels may take revenge not just on the regime but on a large section of the population. There is also the risk that a military confrontation may throw the country into irreversible chaos. Some say that the change in Sudan is likely to be turbulent and bloody, for Al-Bashir's regime, in power since 1989, is not likely to give in without a fight. What the student protests in Khartoum University and other campuses around the country show is that the youths are following their own heart. No opposition party seems to be in charge, and none of the usual leaders seems to have any clout among the students. In fact, there is a major gap between the young and the conventional political leaders. The names that the students give to their organisations seem to suggest a change in political mood: "Zeheqna" (we're fed up) , "Qerefna" (we are sick of it all), and "Sharara" (spark), to mention but a few. Hardly a day passes without a demonstration or a protest in urban areas, and on the usual battle lines of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, the government has had no respite. As poverty worsens, unemployment spreads, and corruption persists, few are willing to believe Al-Bashir's promises of a future free of injustice. If the protests continue, the regime is likely to grow more isolated, beleaguered, and inevitably more violent. At which point, change -- for better or worse -- will be unavoidable.
