The Sudanese presidential election scheduled to take place next April appears to be dominated by ethnic Dinka candidates, notes Gamal Nkrumah Sudanese politics looks deceptively as business as usual. Bruised, bothered and beleaguered, the Sudanese political establishment was surprised by the choice of presidential candidate by the heretical Islamist ideologue Sheikh Hassan Al-Turabi, leader of Sudanese Popular Congress Party (PCP) -- derisively dismissed as the "Past Criminal Party". The politician selected by Al-Turabi is his deputy leader of the PCP Abdullah Deng Nhial, a charismatic southern Sudanese figure who happens to be a member of the ethnic Dinka tribal grouping, the largest in southern Sudan and a Muslim. The move sent shivers down the spines of the political grandees of Khartoum. A southern Dinka Muslim presents a tremendous challenge to the powers that be within the Sudanese political establishment. Throughout Sudan's history, heretics have faced horrid punishments. So far, Al-Turabi has evaded such an abominable fate. This matters a lot right now. If his presidential nominee wins, this will change forever the course of direction of Sudanese politics. Nhial will run for the Sudanese presidency scheduled for April. Al-Turabi, the leader of the opposition Sudanese Popular Congress Party (PCP) nominated last week as presidential candidate for the PCP, is a seasoned politician who is relatively young and has an enormous political following among both southerners and northerners. He is renowned for being a devout Muslim, albeit a moderate one and a man who is widely seen as a pragmatic and a democrat in political circles. But for all the hand-rubbing glee of the PCP, Sudanese politics may be chaotic at times, however, there is no doubt that there are signs that inventive political veterans, such as Al-Turabi, are coming up with novel ideas. On both fronts, Al-Turabi is guilty of heterodoxy. To put forward a southerner and Muslim as the PCP's presidential candidate is a daring precedent. The excitement lies in the probable collapse order and the realignment it will herald. But the world must not exaggerate Deng Nhial's popularity in southern Sudan. The fact that he is a Muslim representing an Islamist party works against him in southern Sudan. Does the fact that a majority of southerners do not buy Al-Turabi's choice come as such surprise? Southerners know what they have gained from the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in January 2005, and a majority of southern Sudanese will continue to back the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) headed by Sudanese Vice-President and the SPLM presidential candidate Salva Kiir, also an ethnic Dinka. It is not hard to see why such a presumption should exist. The past two years in Sudan have seen economic freedom advance further than political freedom. Among the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir, few Dinka leaders hold prominent political positions. Put another way, the Al-Bashir regime is seen as playing a dangerous divide and rule game in which it encourages non-Dinka southerners to rebel against the supposed domination of the SPLM by the ethnic Dinka politicians. Al-Turabi, in sharp contrast, chose as his presidential candidate a Dinka who is also a Muslim. For in the end, no matter who wins, the Dinka are poised to do splendidly. It is just possible to imagine a decent compromise in which Al-Turabi gives way to a more emollient political personality from the southern political establishment. Indeed, Al-Turabi's move leaves behind losers in concentrated clumps. Above all politics in Sudan remains stubbornly local. Much of Sudan's newfound oil fields are located in the Dinka territory. The succession will be decided in the traditional manner. Al-Bashir might still win the elections. Yet he might lose if free and fair elections are held. Of course, such transformation has been predicted. In fact both the secularists and the religious zealots have lost. Recent pledges that Sudan embarks on radical political reform go unheeded. The PNP's response has been weak. Such a collective militant Islamist shrug only stores up trouble, since there are other parts of Sudan where Al-Turabi enjoys fomenting bother. Yet limits of Al-Turabi's political clout is becoming clear. His erstwhile political supporters are not exclusively northerners, but are from western and southern Sudan. But what President Al-Bashir may come to regret losing most is something that Al-Turabi longs for: the opportunity to become a leader acceptable in both southern and northern Sudan. The hitch with this reasoning is that with the majority of southern Sudanese politicians are staunchly Christian. That was the background against which Sudan's squabbling leaders are preparing themselves for the forthcoming election. And Al-Turabi's supposed plans for political reform and strengthening democracy and the rule of Islamic Sharia law are in about the same shape as Al-Bashir's beaten army. This week the NCP has had to admit that this did not work either. So it is softening its ideological hardline. Everyone with a stake in Sudan's economic prosperity has a part in this trend. And, Al-Turabi capitalises on this. Standing up for democracy sometimes entails standing up for some unappealing democrats. The big question is whether that is a false choice. In fact evidence is mixed. There is now the real chance that the NCP might usurp power. Khartoum might be a PCP stronghold. Elsewhere, however, the taboos still rule. The excitement lies in the probable collapse of the ageing political order of Sudan. To be fair, Al-Turabi exhausted himself struggling against the old political Sudanese establishment and hence his political credentials. His chosen successor Deng is not going to be just another grey man who bites the dust. Which is why change might come at last.
