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Inching forward?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 11 - 2011

The Yemeni president decided to attend the ceremony of ending his county's crisis in Riyadh. Will this finally end the crisis, asks Nasser Arrabyee
In an unexpected step, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh arrived Wednesday in the Saudi capital Riyadh to attend the signing ceremony of the GCC deal for power transfer.
The opposition leaders arrived in Riyadh one day before Saleh, but wanted to avoid any face to face meeting with Saleh. Opposition leader Mohamed Ba Sandaw said Tuesday, before they left to Riyadh, that President Saleh would sign the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deal alone in Sanaa and then the ruling party delegation would go to Riyadh to sign the implementation mechanism.
In May Saleh backed out at the last minute from signing the GCC deal after the opposition and his party signed it, because the opposition leaders refused to attend the ceremony of signing in the Presidential Palace. The justification of the opposition leaders at the time was that President Saleh's men would assassinate them on their way to the Palace.
Saleh's last minute decision to attend the signing ceremony, whether in fact he or his deputy signs, is viewed by many observers as a successful step that will achieve his political goals.
Earlier, the Yemeni conflicting parties agreed to end their 11-month political crisis. UN envoy to Yemen Jamal Bin Omar thanked them on Wednesday for reaching an agreement to implement UN resolution 2014, which called on the conflicting parties to peacefully solve the problem on the basis of the GCC initiative. "All parties have agreed to implement the GCC deal, and I would like to thank all parties for their cooperation," said Bin Omar in Sanaa late Tuesday.
Although the signing of the GCC agreement and its implementation mechanism did not happen until Wednesday, the UN envoy seemed confident that the conflicting parties would sign after he and the American and European ambassadors finished the arrangements of signing.
The documents of the GCC deal and its implementation mechanism would be signed in both the Saudi capital Riyadh and the Yemeni capital Sanaa to appease all parties.
The three representatives of the opposition who would sign the documents arrived in Riyadh late Tuesday. They are the secretary general of the socialist party, Yasine Said Noman, who is also the chairman of the supreme council of the Islamist-led opposition coalition, the secretary general of the Islamist party Islah, Abdel-Wahab Al-Ansi, and the third representative is the chairman of what is called the National Council of the Revolution Forces, Mohamed Salem Basandwa, who represents rebel tribal forces, particularly Al-Ahmar family.
The three representatives from the government side, are expected to arrive in Riyadh on Wednesday. They are Vice President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, political advisor of President Saleh Abdel-Karim Al-Eryani, and Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Querbi.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon thanked President Saleh for reacting and responding to the UN resolution 2014 and also for his responsible leadership. On his part, Saleh thanked Ban for all his efforts to solve the Yemeni crisis peacefully.
According to the state-run news agency Saba, in the telephone conversation, Saleh said that the UN must continue to monitor the implementation of the GCC deal after the signing.
However, the protesters in the streets criticised the opposition parties for agreeing on the GCC deal saying it will be only in the interest of President Saleh.
But this refusal is viewed by observers as a kind of manoeuvring to strengthen the opposition and to provide political gains while negotiating, as more than 90 per cent of protesters are members of the opposition parties and they listen and follow the instructions of their parties.
The Islamist party Islah that leads the opposition coalition, which includes Islamists, Socialists, and Nasserite, has the overwhelming majority of the partisan protesters in the streets.
The implementation mechanism of the GCC deal to be signed, would be divided into two stages. The first stage is from the moment of signing until a new president is elected within 90 days. The second stage is from the time of announcing the results of the election until the end of the transitional period two years later when a referendum on a new constitution starts and new elections are held.
In the first stage, President Saleh will stay on as president but without real powers. Saleh will transfer his constitutional powers to his deputy Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Hadi will entrust a person chosen by the opposition to form a national unity government which will be shared with the ruling party with fifty per cent of members.
This government will not include any members from the ruling party or from the opposition of those who are accused of violence and violation of human rights.
Then, the parliament will issue a law that will protect both members of the opposition and Saleh's regime from any prosecution.
The government will form a military and security committee chaired by Hadi to remove the check points and military presence from the streets.
The commanders of the military and security forces will remain in their positions, including the son and nephews of Saleh and also the rebel general Ali Mohsen, at least until a new president is elected after 90 days from signing.
Hadi, who is from the south, and who is respected by most parties, will likely be the compromised candidate for both the opposition and the ruling party.


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