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Cracks in the opposition
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 04 - 2011

The official opposition is willing to provide immunity to Saleh and his gang, and give him a month to tie up loose ends. Most protesters continue to demand that Saleh leave immediately, while others think Sharia will solve everything, reports Nasser Arrabyee
Yemen's official opposition and President Ali Abdullah Saleh have agreed on a US-backed, Saudi-led, Gulf Cooperation Council plan to see Saleh step down in one month from signing. Wednesday was the date set by the GCC officials for the Yemeni conflicting parties to sign the plan in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
Sources from both sides confirmed to Al-Ahram Weekly on Tuesday they would sign the agreement in Riyadh on Wednesday or Saturday at the latest. Earlier in the week, the Islamist-led opposition coalition, which includes socialists and Nasserites (Arab Nationalists), had refused to form a unity government with the ruling party before Saleh steps down, as called for in the plan. American Ambassador to Yemen Gerlad Feierstein convinced the opposition to agree on the plan as a whole.
The young protesters, however, have refused the GCC plan and threaten to march to the presidential palace to force Saleh out if he refuses to step down immediately and dissolve the pro-Saleh parliament. They fear he is going to trick them, that the parliament would reject his resignation and Yemen will be stuck with him until his term ends in September 2013.
Feierstein assured the opposition that Saleh would not do this, prompting them to agree to the plan, despite the obvious rejection of the plan by protesters. They fear not only another Saleh sleight-of-hand, but are adamant that he and his coterie not get off scot free. Nor will they agree to an end to the sit-ins and protests, as called for in the "final and non-negotiable" GCC plan, until they see the back of him.
While agreeing to the GCC plan, the opposition leaders say it's not in their hands to end the sit-ins and protests, although majority of the protesters belong to the opposition parties, especially the Islamist Islah (Reform) Party. This gap between the official opposition and the street opposition is a dangerous sign.
Assuming for a moment a sudden change of heart by the protesters and the signing of the plan on 27 April, this would mean Saleh will step down on 27 May after submitting his resignation to parliament. During this month, a unity government led by the opposition will be formed from the ruling party (50 per cent), the opposition (40 per cent) and independents (10 per cent).
According to the GCC plan, the transitional president would most likely be the current vice president, Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, who would immediately announce presidential elections within 60 days. The elected president would then form a committee for writing a new constitution and set a date for holding a public referendum on it. Then he would call for parliamentary elections according to the new constitution. The winning party would form a government.
But even if this scenario lurches forward, the transitional government will undoubtedly face continued protests and violence by angry young protesters who refuse the GCC plan as something which has nothing to do with them.
"It's actually good that the opposition coalition has caved in," said a leading protester Adel Abdu Arrabyee defiantly on Tuesday after the opposition coalition officially agreed on the GCC plan without any reservation. "We'll continue our peaceful revolution until our goals are achieved. We do not care about these deals of the opposition parties." The ideological differences between opposition parties have been used in the past by the ruling party to manoeuvre, and protesters like Abdu Arrabyee suspect that this scheming will only increase before (if) Saleh finally leaves office.
Earlier this week, an opposition leader called for refining the peaceful revolution away from the "terrorist culture of Taliban". Mohamed Abdel-Malik Al-Mutawakil, former chairman of the Islamist-led opposition coalition, asked the opposition leaders, especially the Islamists, to stop beating up women who march with men. Al-Mutawakil said he would boycott all meetings of the opposition until the leaders publicly apologise to women who have been harassed, and stop such a barbaric behaviour.
A total of 18 women and men (11 women and seven men) were beaten up and arrested for hours by extremist Islamists for marching together in an anti-Saleh protest on 16 April. "This reckless and repeated behaviour has become too common, and confirms local and international fears of a re- enactment of Taliban rule," warned Al-Mutawakil in an official letter addressed to the leaders of the opposition coalition.
Fundamentalist groups of Salafis who are participating in the anti-Saleh protests that have swept across Yemen since early February said they would announce their own vision of post-Saleh Yemen. The Salafis are trying to unite the more than 400 groups with different visions, most of them inspired by the Islamist Islah Party.
One of the Salafi leaders said it would be a violation of Islam if the new rule in Yemen after President Saleh continued to fight Al-Qaeda. Salafi cleric Abdel-Majid Al-Raimi criticised opposition statements that the new regime would be "a real partner to the US and the Western world in combating terrorism and Al-Qaeda".
Al-Raimi, who runs a Salafi school in the capital Sanaa, strongly criticised Islah, which leads the anti-Saleh protests in the country, for demanding the ouster of Saleh instead of demanding Sharia law. "If Islah demand Sharia, the regime might agree and the problem will be solved," he said.


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