By Lubna Abdel-Aziz Why do great empires fall? We know why they rise; because of their strength--economic, ideological, military, etc. But why does an empire at the zenith of its power come crumbling down, over and over again? Maybe the Romans have an answer. Could it be as simple as the pyramid paradigm, what goes up, must come down? The questions may be facile and straightforward, but the answers are vast and varied, complex and convoluted. Mostly, it is economic. Often, it is the burden of supporting their own successes, or is it excesses, to the breaking point. Rome was the centre of the civilized world for over 2 centuries, till it became too big, too rich and too complacent. It is not the only empire to rise and fall. History is replete with such examples. In the ancient world it happened in Egypt, Greece. and more. In the modern world it happened to the Arabs, the Ottomans, the French and the British, among others.. Rumblings of another power shift are ringing loud and clear. The rise of the Western World started around the 15th century, with the discovery of the New World. Ever since, and for 5 centuries, Europe has shaped global history. We owe our present civilization to Western culture, philosophy, science and technology, commerce and communication, ideas as well as ideals. The world aspired to be European, to speak their languages, quote their poets, and even dress like them. Led by a then mighty British Empire, the West won over the world, politically and economically. They populated the two Americas, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and for all practical purposes, ruled Asia. They led the Industrial revolution, overlooked the slave trade, created large colonial powers and unleashed 2 World Wars. However, this preliminary magnificence, grew old and tired. The US began to eclipse Great Britain in 1914. By the time WWII came roaring, in 1945, the power had already shifted to the US.. America enjoyed superpower status. It led by an idea supported by its success, despite Russia's challenge. When they substituted the idea with their army, is when they began to lose the battle of the idea. The mighty West, once so illustrious, so imposing, will no longer dominate the New World Order. Why? It ceased to be the engineer of growth. It stopped manufacturing goods. Westerners became affluent and idle. In an effort to marry the philosophies of capitalism and socialism, they offered their citizens every convenience. Free education, free healthcare, free benefits, early retirement, long vacations, the list is endless. Modest efforts to curb social benefits are resisted. The US is following suit. Something can be done about it, but nothing will be. Unless this comes to a screeching halt, the future outlook is grim. Controlling population may be a sign of sophistry, but for Europe, it is apocalyptic. With a birth rate of only 1.4 children in Germany, 1.5 in Italy, its population is shrinking. At this rate, "there won't be many Germans in Germany, or many Italians in Italy". At present, 1/6th of the population is over the age of 65, by 2050 it will be 1/3rd-- all expenses paid. . Immigrants may be the answer, but Europeans hate their immigrants and want no more. With so many elderly heavily dependent on government benefits, a strong economy is needed, and Europe's economy is already faltering. The glory of Europe will soon be extinguished. Consider the pitiful situation in Greece. Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, are sure to follow. The European Union, and the one currency, may have added to the crisis. It was Winston Churchill who expressed a wish to build a "United States of Europe". How eloquently would he describe the present predicament? Even Germany, the strongest economically, will rank in future GDP growth between Thailand and the Phillippines, the weakest countries in Asia. According to the UN, the global population will reach 9.2 billion by 2050, from the current 6.8 billion. Where do you think the labour force will increase most? in Asia and Africa. The working age population will decrease by 110 million in Europe. The number of dependents per 100 workers, will be 74, to Asia's 54. Why is China considered the new economic power of the future?. Financial expert Jim Rogers thinks it is because they right the wrong. "Printing money only makes things worse, not better". Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate in Economics, praises China's $2 trillion in reserve, "for a rainy day." The US at present has more debt than it has reserve. India is next in line. Its strong economic reforms during the last decade accelerated its economic growth, making it the10th largest in the world by GDP and the 4th largest by Purchasing Power parity. India is the second largest growing economy, largely due to its Telecommunications industry. Brazil comes rushing in to claim 3rd place. Where does that leave the US? Unless they can learn to live within their means, the outlook is grim. Elementary, wouldn't you say! Great Empires are blinded by their power. Their grandiosity is apt to grow mouldy. They fail to see what is crystal clear, what is elementary. Speaking of being blinded, the great US, blinded by its unbending support for Israel, is sure to veto Palestinian request for statehood at the UN's General Assembly. How should the Arab world feel, contempt or pity for the blind? Elementary! Civilization is a movement, and not a condition, a voyage and not a harbour. -- Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975)
