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Towards a post-Gaddafi Libya
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 07 - 2011

The outlines of a post-Gaddafi Libyan government began to take shape last week, as the US and other countries threw their weight behind the rebel National Transitional Council, writes David Tresilian in Paris
Meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul last week, the 30 or so nations making up the International Contact Group on Libya announced their decision to recognise the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) as the country's "legitimate governing authority", further isolating the already beleaguered Gaddafi regime and potentially shaping the country's future.
The Contact Group, set up at the London Conference on Libya held at the end of March and composed of 32 countries and seven international organisations, including the UN, the EU, NATO, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, had previously met three times in Doha, Rome and Abu Dhabi.
In a statement released after its fourth meeting on 15 July, the group announced that "the Qaddafi regime no longer has any legitimate authority in Libya and Qaddafi and certain members of his family must go. Henceforth, and until an interim authority is in place, participants agreed to deal with the National Transitional Council as the legitimate governing authority in Libya."
The group's decision, largely symbolic for countries that have already recognised the NTC as Libya's legitimate government, was hailed by observers as a further step along the path towards the establishment of a post-Gaddafi government in Libya.
As part of a so-called "roadmap" for the transition of power from the government led by Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to a new post-Gaddafi government, the group called on "all relevant parties to explore ways and means�ê� for the formation of an interim government to ensure a smooth and peaceful transition of power with the widest popular support possible" in Libya.
According to British Foreign Secretary William Hague, whose government, along with that of France, has taken the lead in military actions carried out in Libya, the Contact Group's decision to treat the NTC as the country's legitimate governing authority reflected its "increasing legitimacy, competence and success in reaching out to all Libyans".
In comments posted on the US State Department website, a spokesman said that the US had recognised the NTC as the legitimate governing authority of Libya "until an interim authority is in place" and that it would "no longer recognise the Qadhafi regime as having any legitimate governing authority."
"We wanted to send a very clear signal to Qadhafi and the people around him that we are looking past Qadhafi to a future without him, a future in which there will first be an interim authority and then, ultimately, a new democratic government that reflects and responds to the aspirations of the Libyan people," the spokesman said.
One immediate consequence of the Contact Group's decision to recognise the NTC as the legitimate government of Libya is likely to be the release of frozen Libyan assets to fund rebel activities in the country.
The assets, frozen under UN Security Council resolutions 1970 and 1973, which also authorised international military intervention in the country, belong to the Libyan government, and until last week's recognition of the NTC as the legitimate government of Libya they could not be released to the rebels.
This obstacle has now been removed, and last week's Contact Group statement said that the NTC had "an urgent need for cash" that could now be alleviated by "working together on the disposition of Libya's overseas assets for use during the transitional period for the benefit of the Libyan people."
Countries that had frozen Libyan assets as a result of the UN Security Council resolutions could now "open credit lines to the NTC corresponding to 10 to 20 per cent of the frozen assets," the group said. Libyan funds frozen by the US alone since the beginning of the Libyan conflict are estimated to stand at some $61 billion.
In its statement, the US State Department also said that the United States intended to work on "the most effective and appropriate method for helping the NTC access [frozen Libyan] funds," now that it had been recognised as the de facto government of Libya.
The meeting of the Contact Group and announcement that it would recognise the NTC as the legitimate governing authority of Libya came against a background of reports that French and US authorities had been holding talks with Gaddafi regime officials on a possible diplomatic solution to the Libyan crisis.
There were also rumours that NATO military actions carried out in Libya to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which mandates military intervention to protect the country's civilian population, could now be stepped up despite the beginning of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan later this month.
According to reports in the French press last week, contacts have been made between members of the Gaddafi regime and the international coalition carrying out the NATO-led attacks, suggesting that Gaddafi might be willing to step down from power if certain demands are met.
Among these are Gaddafi's being allowed to stay in Libya and charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity levelled against him by the International Criminal Court being dropped.
However, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé, commenting on the reports last week, said only that the contacts had consisted of the French government receiving emissaries from Libya saying, "look, Gaddafi is ready to go. Let's talk about it," and no further actions were planned.
Earlier this week, the US State Department confirmed that a three-hour meeting had been held between representatives of the Gaddafi regime and US officials in Tunisia at the weekend at the Libyan side's request.
However, the US had only agreed to the meeting, a spokesman said, in order to send the message that Gaddafi must step down from power, adding that no further talks were planned.
Meanwhile, there have been signs that the NATO-led coalition carrying out attacks on pro-Gaddafi forces in Libya and in support of the rebels may be planning to step up the attacks even with the approach of Ramadan.
Following last week's Contact Group meeting, the British government announced that it would be deploying four more fighter aircraft to take part in the NATO-led bombing campaign, and reports earlier this week in the European press confirmed that coalition governments, especially Britain and France, may be examining ways to offer further, more tangible assistance to rebels fighting pro-Gaddafi forces.
Fighting over recent days has been concentrated around the coastal city of Brega in the rebel-held east of the country and in the Nafousa Mountains to the south some 100km south-west of Tripoli.
While the area around Brega has been relentlessly fought over by the rebels and pro-Gaddafi forces since the crisis began more than three months ago, the possibility that rebels in the Nafousa Mountains could be in a position to move northwards on Tripoli became the focus of reports earlier this month when it transpired that the French military had airdropped arms, including rocket launchers, attack rifles, mortars and anti-tank missiles, to rebel fighters in apparent contradiction of UN Security Council 1970, which imposes an arms embargo on Libya.
According to reports in the British press earlier this week, the British government has been pressing the US administration to do more to support the NATO-led operations in Libya, while at the same time fending off demands by the Libyan rebels for direct military assistance, notably in the form of deliveries of heavy weapons.


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