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End of history in Yemen
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 06 - 2011

Will Saleh�'s impending arrival create further havoc or finally allow a legitimate transfer of power, wonders Nasser Arrabyee
Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh is scheduled to return to Yemen on Friday, reasonably recovered from injuries and burns he suffered in a missile attack on his palace on 3 June. Other top aides of Saleh who were injured with him in the same attack are returning from Saudi Arabia as their injuries were more serious.
Saleh�'s supporters all over the troubled country seem to be confident that their beloved leader is coming back despite the almost six months of protests against his 33-year rule.
They enthusiastically swear that the feast they are preparing to celebrate Saleh�'s return would be documented in Guinness Book of Records as the biggest feast in the world. The skies of Yemen, cities, towns and villages, already lit up and crackled for six hours with guns ablaze the night of 8 June when Saudi officials said Saleh�'s surgery was successful. Dozens of people were injured from falling bullets.
Women and children started giving out sweets and cookies to soldiers and security people Tuesday in the streets of the capital Sanaa and some other cities in anticipation of the return of Saleh. "We love him, we just love him, we�'ll die for him," said 55-year-old mother and housewife Rawyah Awadh.
Opposition parties oppose his return and want him to transfer all his power to the vice president, Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, according to a US-backed and Saudi-led GCC deal. Now Hadi is the acting president according to the constitution.
The young protesters demand a transitional council. They do not care about constitutional legitimacy, talking instead about "revolutionary legitimacy", although the majority of them belong to opposition parties who support Hadi.
US and Saudi Arabia lead international and regional efforts for peaceful, orderly and constitutional transfer of power to Hadi, who is accepted and respected by almost all parties.
Sultan Al-Atwani, secretary-general of the Unionist Nasserite Party, the third largest in the opposition coalition, said, "the transitional council should be the last step. Some of the young people are naive and zealous." The young protesters insist that Hadi and the remaining of the regime should go.
"Yes they have the right to talk about revolutionary legitimacy, but if the power is transferred to the vice president and the ruling party approves it, this will be good," said Al-Atwani.
The acting president and all officials, in their meetings with the opposition, Americans and Europeans, insist on delaying talks about power transfer until President Saleh comes back. "We cannot talk about signing while the president and top officials are in the hospital," said Sultan Al-Barakani, assistant secretary-general of the ruling party, referring to signing the GCC deal for power transfer.
Al-Barakani, who survived the missile attack on the presidential palace on 3 June intact, said the priority now for his ruling party and the opposition is to form a unity government to run the country. "A national unity government should be formed from us and them, 50-50, to run the country for 10 months maximum and then hold elections," he said.
The senior official praised the role of Saudi Arabia to solve the current crisis in his country. "Saudi Arabia is the best to resolve the problem because it has good relations with all parties," he said.
However, Saif Al-Asali, economic professor and former minister of finance, has no hope that the opposition and ruling party can do anything together after the failed assassination attempt against Saleh and his top aides. "The government and opposition cannot meet under one ceiling after the bloodshed," said Al-Asali. "The youth should have their own entity without the traditional leaderships of the opposition. The young people should lead themselves."
The independent young protesters blame the US and Saudi Arabia for trying to thwart their revolution. Naguib Abdel-Rahman, a leading independent protester, said, "If this revolution fails, some of the protesters will go fight with Al-Qaeda, and the remaining will go fight with Al-Houthi rebels. They would blame America and Saudi Arabia for that failure and they would side with their enemies," the leading protester added referring to Al-Qaeda as the enemy of America and Al-Houthi rebels as the enemy of Saudi Arabia.
Opposition leaders and young protesters seem to be very afraid of President Saleh�'s return. "Saleh is very bewildering; he can slap you and kiss at the same time, and you do not know what to do, whether to blame him for slapping or thank him for kissing," said Mohamed Al-Sadi, assistant secretary-general of the Islamist party Islah.
Some Western diplomats doubt if the GCC deal will be signed when Saleh returns. "If Saleh kept manoeuvring for four months without signing, why would he sign now after he and his senior officials were nearly killed," said the diplomat on condition of anonymity.
Some of the opposition leaders say Saudi Arabia is now doing everything to find an appropriate successor for Saleh far from the Islamists. "Saudi Arabia would not allow the brotherhood to rule in Yemen at all, at all," said Hassan Zaid, secretary-general of Al-Haq Party, one of the opposition coalition parties.
"The power would not be transferred to vice president Hadi because he is close to Ali Mohsen who is Muslim Brotherhood and fundamentalist," said Zaid referring to dissident general Ali Mohsen who was mainly blamed for the wars against the Shia rebels in Saada from 2004-2010.
"The solution is the departure of Ali Mohsen and Saleh and all traditional leaders of the oppositions parties including me," Zaid concluded abruptly.


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