The Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah has been ambivalent about the protests in neighbouring Syria, explained by its ties with the Syrian regime, writes Lucy Fielder in Beirut The Lebanese Shia political and military group Hizbullah would be profoundly affected if its strategic ally Syria descended into chaos, observers say. But the group has a strong local support base and other allies and resources, and it would therefore survive, many believe. Lebanon watched fearfully as the wave of anti-regime protests in Syria resurged over the weekend, according to rights groups and activists. The two neighbours' histories are intertwined, and Syria dominated Lebanon politically and militarily from the end of the latter country's civil war in the early 1990s until 2005. Former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination in that year split the country into a western-backed camp that held Syria responsible and an alliance led by Damascus's firm ally Hizbullah. Since mid-March, the strife in Syria has shone a spotlight on Hizbullah's close ties with the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Observers of the group believe that most of its weapons arsenal comes from key ally Iran, but that Syria often acts as a conduit for arms. Funding comes mainly from Tehran, Hizbullah's network of associations and religious alms and wealthy patrons, many of them Lebanese expatriates. Syria provides the group with valuable political and strategic backing. "Hizbullah would of course be affected if Syria were driven into a situation of civil war," said Walid Charara, author of a book on the group's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and an analyst at the Consultative Centre for Studies and Documentation, a Hizbullah think tank. "But I think in general that the Lebanese are afraid of what's happening on the popular level and among the political elite. If Syria plunges into chaos, Lebanon will be the first country affected." Hizbullah believes that its ally faces destabilisation attempts from outside and that Western and pro-Western Arab countries are using the wave of popular protests to pressure Syria into acceding to long-standing demands, Charara said. The Syrian government has said that it is facing "armed gangs" that have killed at least 120 members of the country's security forces. Thus far, Hizbullah has not spelled out an official line on the situation in Syria, though this was expected to change as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press when Nasrallah was due to address the issue in a long-awaited speech. After it backed the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions, albeit during their later stages, observers say the group found itself in a tight spot when Syria's protests began. Al-Manar, the group's television station, has avoided challenging the Syrian government's version of events, focussing instead on the funerals of members of the country's security forces allegedly killed by insurgents, along with pro-regime demonstrations and vox pops in little-affected areas. A Hizbullah statement criticised US sanctions against Syria as an attempt to push Damascus into dropping its support for resistance groups against Israel. However, pressure to explain the group's discrepancy in approach has grown. Nasrallah made a speech supporting Bahrain's pro-democracy protesters in March -- most of whom are from the disenfranchised Shia community -- and against the ruling Sunni regime. This sparked the anger of several Gulf states, fuelling accusations of inconsistency or bias, as the uprising was portrayed in the Gulf as a sectarian battle. Commenting on the group's stance, Charara said Hizbullah was first and foremost a resistance group and that it needed as broad a spectrum of allies as possible. "This is a strategic alliance with the only Arab state bordering on Lebanon. Hizbullah cannot interfere in Syria's internal affairs, and it must stand firm on principle against what it sees as attempts to destabilise it." According to Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Beirut-based Hizbullah expert and research adviser for the Doha Institute, Hizbullah's allies and supporters in Lebanon rationalise the group's support for the Syrian regime by prioritising the latter's military capability to fight Israel. "No one is blind to Syria's political corruption, use of violence or growing economic neo-liberalism," she said. "But this tends to minimise the regime's repression and blame foreign interference and media distortion." Washington has for several years harboured ambitions to prise Syria away from Iran's embrace, along with its support for Hizbullah. Chair of the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar Ibrahim Al-Amine wrote a piece last weekend arguing that Western and pro-Western Arab countries were putting covert pressure on Al-Assad to conclude a peace agreement with Israel that would guarantee the latter's pullout from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights as a prelude to dropping ties with Hizbullah. Al-Amine and the newspaper he chairs are seen as supportive of Hizbullah, at least in its fight against Israel. However, since the Syrian unrest began the paper has surprised critics by reporting on the demonstrations and publishing a range of opinions, including articles attacking the regime's crackdown on protesters. As a result, some editions have been prevented from reaching Syrian newsstands. Al-Assad would also be required to sever connections with Iran and Hamas as part of a peace deal, Al-Amine wrote, as well as enact domestic reforms and sack members of the ruling coterie. In return, he would receive financial and development aid. "Needless to say, Al-Assad rejected these offers," Al-Amine wrote. "He told Arab delegates that Iran and the forces of the resistance were his constant allies and that this had been proven through experience." Saad-Ghorayeb said that if Al-Assad were to fall, it would be a serious blow to Hizbullah. "Whoever replaced him would almost certainly not support the resistance movements in the way he has," she said. "We're not just talking about supply lines. It would weaken the strategy of deterrence and tie Hizbullah's hands much more in any future war with Israel. It could even encourage Israel to strike Hizbullah." Fidaa Itani, a left-wing journalist with Al-Akhbar knowledgeable about Hizbullah and a fierce critic of Damascus, said the group derived much of its strength and legitimacy from its mainly Shia Lebanese constituency, which is concentrated in the south of the country and in Beirut's southern suburbs. The group had also been careful to bolster its security by avoiding dependence on Syria or any other single source of backing. "It has worked from the beginning to ensure that its financial and political support and its supply lines are not from any single source," Itani said. "If the Syrian regime falls, Hizbullah won't collapse."
