Gaddafi's revolutionary ideology is hallowing out in its traditional Tripolitanian strongholds. But signs of intriguing new life for his followers are springing up at its periphery, perceives Gamal Nkrumah With every day, and from both sides of my intelligence, I thus drew steadily nearer to that truth, by whose partial discovery I have been doomed to such a dreadful shipwreck: that man is not one, but truly two. -- Robert Louis Stevenson The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde Substitute "man" for "Libya" and you will come to understand how Libya is not one, but truly two. Libya's contemporary history is focussed around a thesis of challenge and response -- an invariably revolutionary response. And, the country has been "doomed to such a dreadful shipwreck." But though it looks half dead, Libya is buzzing with creative energy. Pro- democracy activists have taken up arms against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. Forces loyal to the Libyan leaders are also up in arms. The Brother leader is at the moment preoccupied with keeping the NATO beast at bay. Embracing a solution that satisfies both the Gaddafi regime and its opponents headquartered in Benghazi is by no means an easy task. Just as the rebels are seemingly adamant in demanding "Off with his head!", Gaddafi, if less categorically, does not want to see the Western-backed Leviathan grow into a true monster. He is intent on striking their names out of the Libyan lexicon. The National Transitional Council (NTC) in Benghazi is at the mercy of NATO. Withdrawing Western aid would be a blunt tool that would stunt the NTC's growth, and at any rate in the short run would hamper the battle against the Gaddafi forces. Victory on the eastern front can rarely have tasted so bitter for the NTC stalwarts. Libyan politics has entered a new and unstable phase. It is time for Gaddafi, by far the most talented Libyan politician, to stop his ranting, sober up, and show his well known talent for political brinkmanship, his true mettle. Officially, he is above politics altogether. In practice, of course, he now governs at the West's behest and pleasure, though this is a case of the snake charmer picking up the snake by the wrong end. Gaddafi like Moses has flung his staff and its reptilian metamorphosis is gobbling up the Western lackeys, wreathing like worms. A perennial complaint of the disgruntled rebels is that they lack proper Western protection. The question is what does the West's plans for Libya's political future have to do with Gaddafi's staying power? Gaddafi is more socially liberal than his opponents and that is the reason perhaps that may explain why the West is reluctant to support the NTC with its odds and ends of Islamists. But Gaddafi is too engrossed in leading the struggle against the imperialists, and is too intellectually active, to wallow in gloom or pessimism. As he sees things at this particular historical juncture, he has to be at the helm. As a rule of thumb, when a crisis of the magnitude of that which faces Libya hits a country it can seem reasonable to say that the task of handling the crisis falls mainly to the leader of the country in question. Gaddafi knows that his forces must regroup and survive, or else fall and collapse. The differences between Libya's political setup and the rest of the Arab world are immediately palpable even to the most casual political observer. Gaddafi's Libya is the only Arab and African state lacking a Western-style central bank. Not surprisingly then, one of the first acts of the NTC was to establish such a central bank for Libya with Western backing. Why has the West intervened militarily in Libya and not in Bahrain, Syria or Yemen? Rather than resorting to the old imperialist strategies of picking winners in neo- colonies, Western powers should encourage winners in the developing worlds to emerge by themselves. But for Libyans, pristine Islam retains a huge emotional hold. Libyan Islam has a vitriolic hold, prone to sympathy with Al-Qaeda and militant Salafist groups. But there are several positive traditions such as the venerable Sufi traditions of North Africa that are especially prevalent in Libya. It is indicative that the Sufi orders have sided with Gaddafi, while the Salafis, conveniently overlooking the tenets of Islam concerning usury, have jumped on the NTC bandwagon. The hardest days may still be ahead. Libyans now have to choose between the fierce independence of their forebears as embodied by their national hero Omar Al-Mukhtar or incorporation into the Western global order as a Mediterranean neo-colony supplying oil to its energy-starved masters. If a thriller writer were creating the character of a callow Bedouin whose rise to Croesan wealth occurred soon after he masterminded a revolution, then surely it would be modelled on the Libyan leader Muammar Al-Gaddafi. Until Operation Odyssey, the controversial oil-trader -- and let's face it that is exactly what he is in spite of his revolutionary veneer -- had done little to change this perception. He likes to remind his listeners that he hails from a modest and unpretentious family of nomadic Bedouins. Playing with the Big Boys is a deadly dangerous game as Gaddafi learned to his mortification. It was five decades ago that he was inspired by the 23 July 1952 Revolution in Egypt under the leadership of the late president Gamal Abdel-Nasser. He rose up the ladder quickly. Later, as a young army officer, Gaddafi moved to engineer his own Fateh Revolution at home. He will have been left in no doubt that this move into the public eye could be a difficult transition. At first he did not pander to his critics, but lately he prevaricated. He has been one of the great enigmas of our times. He has a ruthless, uncompromising and competitive spirit. However, he must not give his foes enough rope to hang himself with. He was busy turning Libya into a behemoth. He has built up a multi-million dollar desert empire, but can he cope with the shifting sands?
