While stopping short of a Gaza ground war, Israel is hitting Palestinian resistance movements hard before the impact of Arab revolutions is felt, writes Saleh Al-Naami Soheib, who is only seven years old, refuses to leave his aunt's house in Deir Al-Balah in the centre of the Gaza Strip and return to his family home in Om Al-Jimal on the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip -- a region of confrontation and intense activity by occupation forces. Although a truce and ceasefire were announced, the psychological trauma Soheib endured during the Israeli aggression at the end of 2008 makes him live in a state of fear and uncertainty that calm can be restored. His father, Jamal, hopes to convince the boy to come home so he can return to school. This is not the only family that quickly fled areas of confrontation as soon as Israel began its recent attacks. Many left to live with relatives in other areas away from confrontations on the morning of 4 April. A stream of cars returned to the border zone a week later bringing back the families that had fled Israeli air strikes that killed 23 and hospitalised tens of Palestinians. Hamas and Israel are accusing each other of breaching the truce: Hamas believes that when Israel assassinated three of its military leaders two weeks ago it had to respond by targeting an Israeli bus; Israel insists that attacking the bus triggered confrontation since Tel Aviv does not believe that killing the leaders and members of the Palestinian resistance is contentious. It is evident that the Egyptian government played a critical role in ending Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip, in cooperation with the UN. Sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, under the directives of Foreign Minister Nabil Al-Arabi, contacted the US, EU and UN to curtail Israeli assaults. Egyptian diplomats worked with UN Envoy Robert Serry, who in turn contacted Tel Aviv to end Israeli attacks. The unwritten and indirect deal reached by Egyptian and UN officials dictates a return to the undeclared truce that preceded the current escalation. The prime minister of the Gaza government, Ismail Haniyeh, said that the Palestinians "are uninterested in escalation" and that Arab and international parties intervened with Israeli occupation authorities to end their assaults on the Gaza Strip. In press statements, Haniyeh said that his government had intense contacts with Arab, regional and international parties to stop the attacks on Gaza and curtail Israeli actions. He asserted that Israeli hostilities "aimed to blackmail the resistance and force it to make political concessions after Tel Aviv failed to achieve these goals over the past five years." Haniyeh indicated that his government has gathered evidence on war crimes committed by the Israeli army during the last aggression. He insisted that "Israel's leaders should be prosecuted according to international law and not be allowed to evade punishment." Hamas leader Saleh Al-Bardawil stated that Palestinian factions are committed to the truce as long as Israel is also. Al-Bardawil said in press statements that "Palestinian factions do not want to drag the Palestinian people to the horrors of war in light of the changes taking place in Arab states, and while the media is not focused on the Gaza Strip, and therefore we agreed to the truce." In response, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that Israel was committed to the ceasefire if Palestinian factions refrain from rocket attacks. Netanyahu boasted that the Israeli army succeeded in damaging the military infrastructure of Hamas, which he believes was key in deterring the group from continuing attacks. He argued that Israel achieved a remarkable feat when its "iron dome" system intercepted rockets fired from the Gaza Strip in the direction of Israeli territories. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said that a ground attack on Gaza would be "a wrong move". "I want to remind everyone that there are thousands of missiles in the Gaza Strip and it will not be enough to send one military brigade into Gaza," Barak noted. "I don't want to launch a battle like Cast Lead, but we must be prepared for any possibilities." Meanwhile, Israeli Minister of Interior Eli Yishai called for an air strike on Gaza without a ground campaign, stressing the need to strike Hamas's bases and fortifications. Minister of Infrastructure Uzi Landau urged targeting Hamas leaders. At the same time, the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) Party, led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, declared that it will demand that Netanyahu fulfill the second article of the agreement with the ruling Likud Party, which clearly states that the government is committed to overthrow Hamas's rule as a strategic goal. Israeli military sources do not believe that Hamas used its long-range weapons during recent confrontations, stating that the group's military wing, the Ezzeddin Al-Qassam Brigades, chose to preserve its capabilities and not succumb to Israel's attempts to uncover them. But does reaching a ceasefire necessarily mean that Israel will not escalate hostilities against the Gaza Strip once again? The answer to this question primarily depends on Israeli observations in the last confrontation. It is clear that Israeli leaders believe they can relaunch attacks against the resistance in Gaza in the future, whenever they believe this would serve Israeli interests. The rulers of Israel always keep in mind the security of the domestic front before taking any decision to escalate aggression against the Gaza Strip, which means that they are always careful that any confrontation with Palestinian resistance would not harm settlers, settlements, cities, vital and strategic infrastructure which are close to the Gaza Strip. No doubt, that the biggest danger facing these settlements and infrastructure are missiles fired by the resistance. Israel claims that in recent battles it achieved a "great" feat, namely the success of the anti-missile technology system known as "iron dome" in intercepting a large number of missiles fired at the cities of Beir Al-Sabe and Askalon. According to decision makers in Tel Aviv, this gives the political elite a sizeable margin in the future to comfortably decide to escalate confrontations against the resistance in Gaza. Both political and security circles now realise that the success of "iron dome" greatly reduces the possibility that the large residential settlements near Gaza will be harmed. Accordingly, there is a rising call within Israel to build more "iron dome" systems to secure the largest number of settlements, cities and infrastructure on the outskirts of Gaza, in order to give decision makers the freedom to order attacks whenever they feel it would benefit Israel. The best asset which Israel is using to serve its interests is the disputes among Palestinian resistance groups and the absence of a unified agenda. While Israel believes that it will be easy to initiate attacks against the resistance in the future, what will serve its scheme the most is for one or more Palestinian factions to unilaterally launch military attacks which Tel Aviv would use as a pretext to begin another onslaught on Gaza. Israel has clearly stated that Hamas, as the ruler and administrator of the Gaza Strip, will pay the highest price in response to any action by the group or any other faction. In that way, Hamas would busy itself with contacting the other factions to reach a new ceasefire agreement and pave the way for Israel to manipulate confrontations to achieve pre- determined goals. At the same time, Tel Aviv knows that the Palestinians are also interested in restoring the previous truce. Israel believes that it is not in its interest to launch an expansive ground campaign in Gaza, out of concern over the reaction of Arab public opinion to such a move while Israel's already low standing in the international community could be risked further as a result. Nonetheless, Israel is keen on causing the most damage possible to Palestinian resistance groups before conditions settle down in Arab capitals currently in turmoil, especially Cairo. Zionist decision makers know that once conditions settle in Arab states it will be very difficult for Tel Aviv to attack Gaza, and by then it would be facing much more serious challenges than Gaza. Whether Israel is correct in its thinking or not, resistance groups must realise that the immense upheavals in the Arab world have put Israel in a critical situation. The resistance must avoid playing into Israel's hands at any cost, overcome pointless fractures among its ranks, and launch resistance activities under a unified strategy. It is true that Palestinian factions have diverse ideologies and political affiliations, but Israel should not be allowed to manipulate such differences to its own advantage.
