The stalemate between a cold truce and outright war continues, with both Israel and Palestinian factions preparing for all eventualities, writes Saleh Al-Naami With the exception of stray dogs, no one can enter into Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp in the central Gaza Strip after midnight without proving his identity and being carefully searched by members of the marabatin (garrisoned) groups guarding the camp's entrances. In a survey that Al-Ahram Weekly conducted early this week of the sites of the marabatin, who are affiliated with the various military arms of most of the Palestinian factions, it was clear that they have begun to take intensified security measures around all Palestinian residential areas in the Gaza Strip in case Israeli forces should enter. Saad (not his real name), the 29-year-old leader of the marabatin groups in Al-Maghazi camp, says that he and his scores of men are operating under the assumption that Israeli forces may raid the camp at any moment, and thus are in a constant state of readiness for battle. "We are taking both publicised and secret security measures, 24 hours a day, so as to limit the enemy's ability to surprise us," he told the Weekly. Top officials in the dismissed Haniyeh government and leaders of various Palestinian factions believe that the Israeli army's recent invasions of the Gaza Strip have been preparation for major military action. The Palestinian factions listen carefully to the statements of top Israeli leaders regarding Tel Aviv's intentions. Tsahi Hanegbi, head of the Security and Foreign Affairs Committee in the Knesset, told Hebrew Radio last Sunday that both Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his Minister of Defence Ehud Barak agree that a wide-scale land campaign should be waged in Gaza, and that commencing such an operation depends only on operational considerations. General Matan Vilnai, Israeli deputy defence minister, says openly that major military action in Gaza is vital for regaining Israel's ability to deter Palestinian factions. Vilnai has declared that the resistance factions' ability to strike at Israel is indisputable evidence that Israel has completely failed to uphold its deterrence capacity. Abu Obeida, official spokesperson of Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, has pointed out that Israel has recently exaggerated the abilities of Palestinian resistance movements in the Strip so as to justify waging major military action against Gaza. "It is absolutely clear that the power balance tips considerably in the favour of Israel, and yet despite that, Israel is trying to convince the world that Gaza has turned into a major arsenal, so as to secure international cover for its attack on Gaza," he told the Weekly. Abu Obeida went on to say that despite the prevailing balance of power, Palestinian resistance movements have prepared "unprecedented surprises" for Israel's army should it invade the Strip. Although Ghassan Al-Khatib, vice-president of Birzeit University and former Palestinian minister of planning, believes that all signs indicate that Israel is currently preparing for overwhelming military action against Gaza, he does not believe that Israel will reoccupy the Strip or even large sections of it. Al-Khatib holds that reoccupation would have a negative effect on Israel's ability to achieve its goal of separating the Gaza Strip from the West Bank and connecting it with Egypt. "Control of the Strip, or wide areas of it, would mean risking the achievements Israel has made in separating the Gaza Strip from the West Bank, because controlling the Strip would embroil Israel in a Gazan quagmire, for it would again assume responsibility for providing services to the Palestinian public," he told the Weekly. Al-Khatib proffers that Israel is interested in exploiting its military operations to complement the role of the siege placed on the Strip in order to drive the Palestinians towards Egypt. Yet it is striking that talk of preparations to confront Israeli military plans for Gaza is accompanied by talk of the possibility of reaching a truce agreement. Said Siyyam, minister of defence in Ismail Haniyeh's government and Gaza's "strong man", holds that many attempts are being made to reach a truce agreement between Israel and Palestinian resistance movements. Siyyam suggests that Hamas is prepared to forego some of the conditions it had placed on reaching a truce, and in particular that it be comprehensive in including a halt to raids and arrests in the West Bank. "Our experience with the occupation shows that you cannot get everything in the first round, and yet that it is in Israel's interest that a truce be reached and missiles stop being fired on settlements in the occupied territories, in return for Israel halting its aggression against our people and taking measures to lighten the siege. We are prepared for the truce to be limited to Gaza in the beginning, and to later extend to the West Bank," he told the Weekly. Siyyam emphasises that this position does not mean that Palestinian resistance movements are prepared to allow Israel to single out the West Bank for implementation of the first stage of the roadmap that deals with security and eliminating the resistance. Siyyam further points out that the factions' readiness to accept a truce in the Gaza Strip as a first stage came following indications that the resistance movements are capable of striking Israel in the West Bank should Israel insist on removing the West Bank from the truce's scope. "Numerous indicators show that the West Bank will again become the primary arena of confrontation with the enemy, and the best evidence of that is some of the operations that have complicated Israel's plans. This has made Israel increase its attacks on the resistance in cooperation with the security agencies of President Mahmoud Abbas. Most unfortunately, this is happening at the same time that Israel is building more settlements in Jerusalem and the West Bank," he said. Siyyam thinks it unlikely that Israel is interested in opening up a wide military front in the West Bank at a time when there is tension between it and Hizbullah and Syria, as well as the possibility of confrontation with Iran. "I don't believe that Israel is capable of confronting all these fronts at once when the Israeli domestic situation is full of confusion. One moment they threaten Syria and the next they give it signs of assurance. Sometimes they threaten leaders of the movement and threaten to invade, and at other times they push foreign parties to mediate for a truce. In all cases, I believe that the region is up for an escalation, but no one knows exactly in what direction. The important thing is that Israel hasn't comprehended the defeat of the June war of 2006," he said. In interview, Siyyam added that the Palestinian security agencies possess verified information about Israel's intent to execute a limited number of operations in Palestinian cities. The Israeli army, he says, has recently dug tunnels that stretch from Israel into the Gaza Strip to use them to kidnap leaders of the resistance movements. "The prevailing belief is that drugs will be used in the kidnapping operations. We assume that Israel will use all of the technical abilities it has as a state to dig these tunnels," he said. Siyyam also revealed that the Israeli domestic security agency, Shin Bet, has used its agents to purchase residential apartments in Palestinian cities in the Gaza Strip to use as bases for the kidnapping operations. An informed Palestinian source told the Weekly that Hamas has submitted a complete proposal to the Egyptian government concerning a comprehensive truce. This proposal provides for the resistance movements halting the firing of missiles on Israeli settlements in return for Israel first halting its military operations in Gaza. After that, the West Bank would be drawn into the truce, the siege of Gaza would be lifted, and Gaza's border crossings would be reopened, including the Rafah crossing. The source added that the Egyptian government realises that the siege cannot be separated from solving domestic Palestinian strife, and thus agreed with Palestinian President Abbas to play a role in reaching a truce with Israel as well as an agreement between Abbas and Hamas on making the Rafah crossing functional again. It would also ensure that security agencies affiliated with the Palestinian presidential office, return to supervise the crossing alongside a symbolic presence of forces allied to the dismissed Haniyeh government. This source holds that although Israel is beating the drums of war and that Palestinian factions are undertaking all preparations to confront that eventuality, both parties are interested in reaching a truce. According to this source, Israel is afraid that a limited operation in the Gaza Strip might lead to a complete invasion, with all that implies with regard to large numbers of casualties on the Israeli side. This is something that Olmert is trying to avoid, especially after his failure in the 2006 war on Lebanon. At the same time, Palestinian resistance factions, and in particular Hamas, are concerned with reaching a truce since it would end the siege, or at least lighten it. This is essential given the paralysis that has struck all aspects of life in Gaza.
