While Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamanei supported Egypt's 25 January Revolution, attitudes have been different regarding the country's own protest movement, writes Amani Maged Iran was one of the first countries to support the Egyptian revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, giving a speech in Arabic in which he supported the Egyptian people's demands. However, Khamenei took an opposite position with regard to opposition movements in Iran itself when these attempted to march in the capital Tehran to celebrate the victory of Egypt's 25 January Revolution. Though the Iranian authorities refused to issue permits for the demonstration, the march went ahead as planned, with demonstrators soon turning their protests against the regime in Tehran and calling not only for the ouster of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but also of Khamanei. Violence and several deaths ensued, followed by the placing under house arrest of two symbols of the Iranian opposition, Mir Mousawi and Mahdi Karoubi, who were charged with various offences. However, on Wednesday, Tehran prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, denied reports that the two had been jailed. "Using the term house arrest is not correct. Mir Mousawi and Karoubi, along with their wives, are in their homes," said the prosecutor, as quoted by Mehr news agency. The events once again raise questions about the future of Iran and the protests that have been taking place there. Observers believe that the 2009 protests in the country, which took place after presidential elections in which Ahmadinejad was re- elected, continue to smolder beneath the surface, these having represented a critical turning point in the relationship between the people and the regime. The 2009 demonstrations were followed by the arrest and silencing of leading reformists, prominent among them the country's former president Mohamed Khatami and the two other presidential candidates, Mir Moussa and Mahdi Karoubi. In addition to this domestic discontent, Tehran has locked horns with the international community over its nuclear energy programme, which it insists is for peaceful civil purposes, something rejected by the West. The economic sanctions imposed by various countries and by the UN against Iran last year, which increased international pressure on Iran, also pose a challenge for the regime, which is heavily influenced by the Revolutionary Guards that have gathered strength since Ahmedinejad first came to power. Economic strains placed on the Iranian people after subsidies were removed on basic food items and petrol last year have also played a role in causing the demonstrations, notably the most recent ones celebrating the Egyptian revolution. Earlier this year when Cairo's Tahrir Square witnessed massive demonstrations demanding the ouster of the Egyptian regime, Coup Square in Tehran also saw protests demanding an end to oppression and the theocratic regime in Iran. Young people in particular, who represent 75 per cent of the Iranian population, demanded the ouster of the regime, which would mean rejecting the theocracy inherited from the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Yet, while the military in both Egypt and Tunisia, which earlier witnessed demonstrations leading to the fall of the countries' regimes, has taken on a leadership role, the situation in Iran is different, where the country's Revolutionary Guard, or Basij Forces, support the regime and control key sectors of the state. Observers have noted that the country's regular army was disbanded during the Iranian Revolution and that it does not have a strong presence today. The Revolutionary Guard, commentators say, is exactly what its name implies, being the guardian of the revolution and seeing this as its main function. If the current round of protests in Iran does not subside, it is likely that future protests will be met with violent confrontation, which could result in a massacre. Some analysts believe that the situation in the country will only change if there are divisions among the leadership and the military, with the Revolutionary Guard siding with the opposition. The latter wants to topple the regime and the clerical rule that goes with it.
