A roadside bomb targeting an Israeli convoy in Jordan provides an insight into the kingdom's fragile politics, writes Sana Abdallah in Amman While no one was hurt and damage was minimal as a result of a roadside bomb that targeted an Israeli embassy convoy heading towards the Jordan valley on 14 January, the attack and the fact that no one has claimed responsibility for it raise significant questions about an incident that could have been carried out by any number of groups frustrated by Israel's belligerence and Jordan's relations with Israel and pro-US policies. The Jordanian authorities are revealing very little about the investigation into the first-recorded roadside bomb to go off in Jordan, and no one has thus far been arrested in connection with the attack. This has given commentators a field day in speculating about the identity of possible perpetrators, ranging from Al-Qaeda elements to Hizbullah in Lebanon or Hamas in Palestine, with some pointing the finger at Israel itself. Yet, regardless of the real perpetrators and target, Jordan, which boasts advanced security services and provides non-stop security for the country's foreign diplomatic presence, sees the bomb as a message that its security can be breached. The 14 January attack is the second blow to Jordan's security in as many weeks, after a Jordanian doctor blew himself up inside a highly-secure US base in eastern Afghanistan on 30 December, killing seven CIA agents and a Jordanian intelligence officer. The suicide bomber, Humam Al-Balawi, had played the role of an informant and had duped Jordanian and American intelligence into believing that he could provide important information on the whereabouts of top Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Although views differ on who might be responsible for the unsuccessful roadside bomb blast in the Jordanian area of Adasiya last Thursday, Jordanian officials seem to agree that the anonymous attackers had access to information on the movement of Israeli diplomats who live in Amman without their families and travel to Tel Aviv at weekends often using different routes. The attackers also seem to have tried to make sure that there would be no civilian casualties during the attack in their choice of timing and of a location where there would be hardly any traffic. In the event, the bomb went off seconds after the Israeli convoy had passed on the right-hand side of the road half way between Amman and the King Hussein, or Allenby, bridge that divides Jordan from the West Bank. The bomb left a one-metre hole at the side of the curving downhill road, damaging a guardrail overlooking the valleys below. Security analysts said that the attackers may have hoped that the cars would have taken a fatal plunge if the device had exploded on time. Some Jordanian officials have also privately guessed that the attack may have been carried out by Al-Qaeda elements in order to show that the movement can establish a presence in Jordan by "capitalising on the growing hatred towards the Israelis" after the extremist group's popularity dropped significantly following the deadly 2005 suicide attacks targeting three hotels in Amman. However, analysts say that Al-Qaeda or its affiliates would have claimed responsibility by now had it carried out the attack, and they note that the attack does not appear to carry the traditional fingerprints of Al-Qaeda suicide bombings, which have hardly ever targeted Israelis. Others believe that Palestinian Islamist groups, such as Islamic Jihad or Hamas, could have been responsible. Alternatively, Palestinian leftist factions or their supporters may have intended to warn Israelis against feeling too safe in a country in which the vast majority is unhappy about Jordan's continuing diplomatic ties with Israel, established following the 1994 signing of the unpopular Wadi Araba peace treaty. It thus came as no surprise when Jordanian information minister Nabil Sharif was quick to deny reports that Israeli security officials had come to Jordan to participate in the investigation and assured the public that the visiting officials' probe would be confined to the embassy in Amman. The last thing the Jordanian government needs after the level of Jordan's intelligence and security collaboration with the CIA in Afghanistan was exposed is information being made public on Amman's security cooperation with Israel. Meanwhile, some Jordanian analysts have agreed with Israeli commentators in speculating that the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, which frequently resorted to roadside bombings during Israel's occupation of South Lebanon, could have been behind the Adasiya attack. Such analysts point out that Hizbullah has made no secret of its wish to avenge the assassination of Imad Moghniyah, the group's military commander who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus in February 2008. It is widely believed that the Israeli intelligence organisation Mossad was behind Moghniyah's assassination, although Israel has not admitted its involvement. And then there are the pundits and bloggers who have pointed the finger at Israel itself, suggesting that Israel might have planted the bomb and deliberately detonated it just after the convoy passed to make sure that the diplomats would not be physically harmed. Such observers argue that the allegedly Israeli perpetrators appear to have known that the Israeli ambassador in Amman, Daniel Nevo, was not among the passengers in the two armoured vehicles making up the convoy, and they had information about the diplomats' travel plans, timing and route. Most importantly, the observers argue, the Israelis would have had a motive in carrying out the attack. In an article entitled "Adasiya blast served Israel" that appeared in the Jordanian newspaper Al-Ghad, political analyst Ibrahim Gharaibeh wrote that the explosion was a "huge gift for Israel, to a point that tempts speculators to conclude it was actually orchestrated by Israel." The Jordanian journalist said that even if the bombing had not been part of a conspiracy, it had nevertheless come at "the best time for Israel and the worst for the Arabs and Muslims, as the war on terror was ending... It is mind boggling that this operation has come amid a new wave of terrorist activities in the United States and across other parts of the world. Was the timing innocent?" Gharaibeh asked. In his article, Gharaibeh argued that Israel could have organised the bombing in an attempt to claim that it was being targeted by terrorism and in order to join a revived war on terror, becoming a partner in any future international military campaigns. There is no doubt that Israel and others will try to exploit this roadside bomb in order to further their agendas. However, until the Jordanian authorities announce credible arrests, or a group claims real responsibility, the origins of the first-ever roadside bomb to have been detonated in Jordan will be open to speculation.
