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Holding off the Horn
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 18 - 06 - 1998


By Dina Ezzat
Egypt may not be intending to present Ethiopia and Eritrea with a peace initiative 'made in Cairo', but it is taking a keen interest in efforts to end hostilities between the two countries. "Egypt's main concern is for a cease-fire," said Foreign Minister Amr Moussa. "This concern was expressed vocally during the meetings of the Organisation of African Unity [OAU] in Ouagadougou [last week], [as was our desire that the] dispute be resolved through negotiations."
According to Moussa, "Egypt is part of the African initiative", and thus supports the US-Rwanda plan to defuse the situation.
On Sunday, President Hosni Mubarak received a second message from Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki, which was brought to Cairo by Foreign Minister Haile Woldensae. Earlier, on Friday, Mubarak held talks with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, who also conveyed a message from Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. On 10 June, Afeworki sent his Minister of Local Administration Mahmud Ahmed Sherifo and political adviser Abdallah Mahmud Jabir to Cairo to urge Egypt to play a direct role in resolving the crisis.
Addis Ababa, however, wants Egypt's involvement to remain indirect, through Cairo's support for the US-Rwanda initiative. Ethiopia has particularly strong ties with the US, and Rwanda is increasingly a part of the growing US camp in sub-Saharan Africa.
Cairo, for its part, claims a certain objectivity because of the strategic nature of its interests in Africa. "We are really not taking sides in this matter, not at all; we are remaining very neutral and hope that the two parties will solve their own problems," an official said.
Egypt recognises Ethiopia as a key player in the Horn, where it is involved in the Sudan civil war as well as mediation efforts to end the conflict in Somalia. Eritrea, too, is of paramount importance to Egypt's security for its location on the Red Sea. On top of that, both Ethiopia and Eritrea have close relations with Israel. "While perfectly legitimate, these relations could well turn out to be harmful to Egyptian interests, if Israel decided that Egypt was obstructing the development of its relations with Arab countries and sought to hit back," remarked one official source.
"In fact, no formal requests for mediation have been made by either side," another source said. He added that while the Eritreans were keen on Egypt playing a direct role in the dispute, they still seemed willing to go with the US-Rwanda initiative.
The Ethiopians, meanwhile, made it quite clear that they rejected any other mediation effort. "The Ethiopian perspective on this matter is that the multiplication of initiatives further complicates an already complicated matter," said Mesfin during his visit to Cairo. He added that the US-Rwanda "initiative is alive. They have come up with a very fundamental proposal, which is a comprehensive call for the peaceful resolution of the crisis. I am calling on all African governments to support this initiative."
Egyptian officials say they would be only too happy to see the Americans succeed with their peace effort. "We want the Horn of Africa to be stable; we are not going to get into the game of taking sides, because this would not help prevent a military conflict there," commented a concerned official.
In any event, Cairo is fully aware that Asmara is almost as close to the US as is Addis Ababa, and that Washington cannot afford to leave the conflict unresolved.
The US has been largely successful in establishing a firm foothold in the Horn of Africa. Only recently, the US appeared to be privileging Ethiopia, which has received hefty loans from the World Bank for various development projects. This antagonised Asmara, forcing it to embark upon an economic war with Addis Ababa. Then, military hostilities erupted. The US must have felt that its interests in the region were in jeopardy and is thus acting to defuse the crisis.
But what if the US efforts fail? According to one diplomat, "We don't want to anticipate events. Egypt is not going to ignore any military conflict in the region. But let us wait and see."
Egyptian efforts to bring stability to the Horn of Africa have so far focused on settling the inter-Somali conflict that has wracked the country for some seven years. It was only last December that Cairo managed to persuade the Somali warlords -- Hussein Fareh Aidid and Ali Mahdi Mohamed -- to sign a joint declaration on peace principles.
This development drew criticism from Ethiopia which felt that its traditional prerogatives over the Somali question were being challenged by Cairo. Unfortunately, the signing of this declaration did not bring the dispute to an end. A meeting that was scheduled to take place in the Somali city of Bidoa to work on electing a transitional government has so far failed to convene.
"This does not mean that the Cairo declaration was a failure," an official said. "No, by all means it was a step forward. It was the first time that the warlords had put their signatures to a single document."
The possibility of organising an international conference on the Somali crisis is being explored at present. If this conference materialises, Egypt will certainly attend, for the OAU member-states acknowledge Egypt as a full partner when it comes to establishing peace in that country.


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