Dina Ezzat reports on Egyptian and Arab diplomatic efforts to end the chaos in Somalia Against a backdrop of cross-cutting national, regional and international interests, Egypt is coordinating with as many parties concerned as possible to prevent the current state of chaos in Somalia from moving in the direction of further disintegration. Within three days, President Hosni Mubarak received in Sharm El-Sheikh two key regional players, Ethiopia and Eritrea. During his meetings with the President of Eritrea Isayas Afeworki on Tuesday, and Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin on Thursday, Mubarak underlined the key Egyptian concerns: sparing Somalia from heavy fighting and promoting a political process that could produce a semblance of stability and harmony in a country that fell into bedlam some 16 years ago. "Egypt is keen to pursue a stabilisation of the situation in Somalia and to secure for the Somali people their due peace, stability and security," presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad said this week. In its pursuit of these objectives, Cairo has expressed "understanding" of the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia to prop up the interim Somali government which had been almost entirely marginalised by Islamic courts. This understanding was communicated to the foreign minister of Ethiopia which prevented the total demise of the interim Somali government put together in 2004 following years of Arab and African reconciliation efforts. However, this understanding was made conditional. Egyptian sources say a clearly worded message was sent to Addis Ababa that its presence in Somalia should not expand beyond a few weeks and that it should not involve the militarisation of particular tribes against others. It is the understanding in Egypt, and made clear to the Eritrean president, that the Ethiopian military presence in Somalia will soon be replaced with a peace-keeping force. "Egypt believes that Somalia needs the deployment of a peace-keeping force under the umbrella of the African Union," Awad said on Tuesday, adding, "it seems wisest to Cairo that such forces not include troops from Somalia's immediate neighbours." This should exclude Ethiopian forces whose involvement was orchestrated and supported by the US and Eritrea. Eritrea is concerned by the impact of a long-term presence of its political foe Ethiopia in neighbouring Somalia and Kenya. Uganda, Nigeria, South Africa and other African states have expressed interest in committing troops to the African peace-keeping forces in Somalia. But African and Arab sources say this is not enough to put together an adequate force since financial allocations are as crucial as the number of troops. According to these sources, the European Union has demonstrated interest in providing financial support to the peace- keeping mission provided a genuine political process is started to reconcile the interim government and all the key political players, not excluding groups qualified as moderate forces within the Islamic courts of Somalia that fled the country following the entry of US-supported Ethiopian troops. This inclusive approach towards reconciliation is supported by the League of Arab States which after months of trying, almost succeeded in bringing representatives of both the interim government and the Islamic courts together for talks along with other factions including some of the notorious warlords of Somalia. The perception seems to be in many an African and Arab quarters, Cairo included, that a reconciliation of the "two legitimacies" is necessary. While the interim government has the legitimacy of the legal authority, the Islamic courts which managed to bring a resemblance of stability to chaos-ridden Somalia also have a legitimacy emanating from the support of people eager to move beyond warlords ruling their country. This is an approach, sources say, which has been gaining support even from the Americans. One informed Arab diplomat says Washington is willing to include what it qualifies as moderate "religious" politicians in the Somalia reconciliation process. This, said the diplomat who declined to be identified, is an indirect reference to the moderate forces within the Islamic courts. There is no date for any projected talks nor has a venue been decided. However, ideas are already being floated, with Kenya being proposed as a potential venue and March a tentative date. The political guidelines for such talks, sources add, would be inspired from two resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council and the Arab League emphasising the need for peacemaking and reconciliation in Somalia while preventing the strategic Horn of Africa country from turning into an Islamist state or a haven for Islamist fighters. Currently, Egypt is working on the bilateral level and through its participation in a limited Arab League ministerial committee to build regional and international consensus on the basis of Somali political reconciliation. As part of this effort, Cairo has been urging all concerned parties to refrain from taking action that could increase hostilities among factions within Somalia against a potential peace process which is supported by regional and international players. According to Zeid Al-Sabban, an Arab League diplomat, the success of any effort aimed at bringing stability to Somalia must be based on close Arab-African coordination on the basis of protecting the transitional federal institutions that were jointly supported by the Arab League and Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). It would also have to accommodate the different shades of political and tribal affiliations in Somalia. Any future deal in Somalia would have to do justice to all concerned parties and to accommodate national security concerns of neighbouring countries which have and will continue to be apprehensive about any imbalance of power in strategically crucial Somalia. "The crucial question is whether the application of these guiding principles is possible," Al-Sabban said. He added that consultations are currently under way to test the orientation of the various forces in view of the current balance of power. For its part, Egypt is directly and indirectly encouraging all Somali powers to move to negotiations, although what can be garnered from previous experience is that even if they produce transitional agreements, such negotiations will not necessarily bring about stability to the Horn of Africa.
