By Dina Ezzat Speculation was rampant this week about a possible resumption of full-scale diplomatic relations between Cairo and Tehran. The rash of hypothesising coincided with a visit by a group of Iranian journalists, who met with a number of senior state officials, including Foreign Minister Amr Moussa. Also in Cairo was Massumeh Ebtekar, an Iranian vice president, who arrived on Monday to take part in an international environmental conference. This is not the first time that such speculations have surfaced. The trend began with a visit by then Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati in the summer of 1997. He not only had talks with Moussa but was also received by President Hosni Mubarak. Indeed, since Moussa went to Tehran last December at the head of Egypt's delegation to a summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), he and his Iranian counterpart Kamal Kharazi have repeatedly been asked the same question: When will Egypt and Iran exchange ambassadors? However, officials on both sides caution that it is still too early to talk of an imminent upgrading of the diplomatic representation between the two major Middle Eastern countries. "I don't really think that we will be sending an ambassador to Tehran any time soon. To talk of doing so in the coming few weeks seems unrealistic," said one Egyptian official. He added, "I think, for now, our diplomatic mission in the Iranian capital will remain restricted to an interests section." The same view was expressed by an Iranian diplomat who is based in Cairo. "We hope that the time will come. We are working on it with our friends in Egypt. And we will continue to work on it. Everything will come in due time," he said. Moussa and Kharazi separately affirmed this week that conditions remain to be met, on both sides, before there can be a closer rapport between the two countries who have been at odds since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. "We are for positive relations between Iran and Egypt. It is important to have a mutual desire for better relations," Moussa said. He added, "Less talk and more action is needed if Egypt is to see the normalisation of its ties with Iran." For his part, Iran's foreign minister welcomed the "very positive climate" that has allowed better relations with Egypt to develop. Each capital, however, has its own agenda of preconditions to be met before there can be any qualitative improvement in relations. Cairo insists that the Iranian government must find a new name for Khaled El-Islambouli Road in Tehran. "It is practically inconceivable to expect Cairo to fully normalise relations with Tehran when there is a main street in the Iranian capital that carries the name of the assassin of the late President Anwar El-Sadat," said one concerned official. He added, "This is a symbolic gesture that the Iranian government has to make. Otherwise, they will be making it very difficult. After all, relations with us should be more important to them than the name of a street." Moreover, Cairo wants guarantees that Iran will continue to keep its distance from the militant Islamist groups that are seeking to establish a theocratic state in Egypt. Egyptian officials also like to refer occasionally to the issue of the three Gulf islands that are claimed by both Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Iran, for its part, has its own list of demands which it expects the Egyptian government to answer. Tehran wants Egypt to further downsize its economic dealings with Israel. In fact, they would like to see Egypt freeze all cultural relations with the Israel and criticise Tel Aviv's policies more vigorously. Iranian officials are fond of publicly saying, as did Kharazi this week, that the further Egypt distances itself from Israel, the closer it will find itself to Iran. Egyptian officials say that they have received promises from Tehran about responding to Egypt's demands, but they are waiting for concrete action. Iranian officials say that they hope to see Egypt take a firm and unswerving line on the issue of Israel, whom Tehran views as an irrevocable enemy of the Muslim world. Although on certain fronts differences continue to undermine mutual confidence, both countries have taken steady and serious steps throughout this year to promote their economic and cultural cooperation. This is expected to continue throughout next year, with each government sending delegations to trade fairs organised by the other. Nevertheless, politics remains the key to détente. The question is whether the two countries might feel that their interests would be better served by the establishment of full diplomatic relations without waiting for all their differences to be settled. Since the OIC summit last December, both Moussa and Kharazi have been in regular contact on all issues of concern to both capitals. Two recent examples are the ongoing Iraqi crisis and the Egyptian mediation effort through which a potential military confrontation between Syria and Turkey was contained. Consultations on issues related to the OIC and the Non-Aligned Movement [NAM] are also ongoing, with Moussa and Kharazi meeting on the fringe of every multilateral meeting they attend. So, what next? Both governments have serious concerns about the regional arrangement that the US is trying to impose by establishing Israel as the focus of a network of economic cooperation that brings together all Middle Eastern countries -- be they Arab or non-Arab. This arrangement would strengthen the position of those countries which are willing to play Washington's game, such as Jordan, Qatar and Turkey, and neutralise, if not marginalise, non-cooperative governments. The latter could well include Egypt, Iran and Syria. Moreover, officials on both sides concede that they share a certain frustration with the US-Western military build-up in the Gulf. Obviously, neither Egypt nor Iran is happy with Israel's escalating military superiority and the political provocation which follows from it. Egypt and Iran also stand to make economic and trade gains in case of a full normalisation of relations. It has been suggested in certain political and official circles that the present grouping of three influential regional countries -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria -- should be expanded to include Iran as well. Iran has good relations with Syria and is warming towards both Egypt and Saudi Arabia. All four countries have a political interest, albeit in different ways and for different reasons, in seeing Israel take a less intransigent stand. The grouping would also be of great service to all four countries, both on the political and economic levels, in the case of any confrontation with an extra-regional power. But for this grouping to be expanded, Egypt and Iran will definitely need to move a little closer first. Officials on both sides say that they are not sure that the other side commands the political consensus that is required to do this. Egyptians talk about the internal Iranian political struggle between the moderates, who would accept an equitable relation with Egypt as it is, and the more conservative elements, who insist that for normalisation to happen Egypt needs to get much tougher with Israel. Iranian officials also speak of an alleged split among Egyptian policy-makers, with some advocating normalisation with Israel and expressing apprehensions about a rapprochement with Iran, and others pushing for closer relations with Tehran. For the moment then, it remains unclear whether the two countries will decide to upgrade their diplomatic representation sometime next year. But, as Moussa said, one thing at least is certain for now: "Egypt and Iran have more to bring them together than to pull them apart. Both countries have things [to offer each other] that could make them stronger, not weaker."
