Growing younger by the minute

More mouths to feed or a more productive society? The chicken and egg debate resumes as Gihan Shahine rounds up the latest census figures
It is sunrise, the beginning of a new day, and, for Egypt, an increase of some 3,680 people. Life is precious and seconds count -- even more so in Egypt, where a baby is born every 23.5 seconds. By these figures, Egypt is richer by roughly 112,200 persons every month. In 2000 alone, the population rose by more than 1.3 million people.
These were the findings of an annual population report released on Monday by the Central Authority for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). The census revealed that Egypt's total population broke the 66.5 million mark in January 2001 -- 64.6 million persons living in Egypt, plus an estimated 1.9 million temporary emigrants. According to the CAPMAS figures, women account for 48.8 per cent of the population, men for 51.2 per cent.
Egypt's population continues to swell, and, consequently, has been blamed for virtually every social and economic ill plaguing the country. In the past 50 years, Egypt's population has more than tripled, and experts cite this basic fact as one of the main obstacles impeding sustainable development. Every year, Ehab Elwi, chairman of CAPMAS, announces the latest census figures, followed by figures indicating the negative effects of the population explosion on the economy.
First and foremost, the people need to be fed. The average annual consumption of wheat, Elwi says, is 170.5 kilogrammes per capita, meaning that Egypt requires nearly 11 million tons of wheat annually to feed the population. However, Egypt only produces 7 million tons, meaning it is necessary to import another 4 million every year, and wheat can cost up to LE480 per ton.
"We spend millions of pounds every year to supply bread alone, not to mention other products," Elwi explained. "If population continues to increase at this same pace, it will reach 123 million people by 2029, which means we will have to produce and import double the amount of wheat we currently consume."
The 2000 World Population Data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) puts Egypt's population rate in mid-2000 at 68.3 million, and estimates an annual increase of 1.98 per cent. Projected population figures are more conservative than Elwi's grave prediction, but they are nonetheless bleak: by 2025, the population will reach 79.4 million, by the year 2050, it could top 117 million.
Employment experts warn that the pace of economic growth -- at 4.4 to 5 per cent annually -- cannot keep up with the fast pace of population growth, estimated by CAPMAS to be 2.1 per cent annually. As the population soars, so too does the labour force, said to be increasing by 2.6 per cent annually. Over half a million people are reaching employment age each year, but the economy is growing too slowly to provide them with jobs.
Why is population growth out of control? While Elwi admits that there have been "tremendous efforts to reduce population growth in Egypt," population growth has stood at 2.1 since 1996, after a promising drop from 2.8 per cent in 1986. And even though the rate is not increasing, explained Elwi, "the drop in birth rates does not counter the recent rise in life expectancy, and the sharp decrease in mortality rates. We need more efforts in the field of family planning to decrease population growth."
Egyptian men have an average life expectancy of 66.5 years, with women living an average of 69.5 years. The infant mortality rate has declined from 63 per 1,000 in 1995, to 44 in 2000, representing a reduction of over 19 per cent. For population growth to decline, fertility rates must decrease. For a population to cease growing at all, a PRB report says, each couple must only "replace" themselves, meaning couples should have an average of two children.
A 1997-2000 PRB survey on Egypt shows that the total fertility rate was 3.5 -- not statistically different from the 3.6 measured for the period from 1993 to 1995. The report warns that long-term assumptions about fertility decline in Egypt should be treated with considerable caution and monitored continuously. "The earlier stages of fertility decline [when the decrease is noticeable] can be accounted for by the couples who were most receptive to the idea of limiting family size and to the use of modern contraceptive methods to achieve that goal," the report says. It may be that an initial fertility decline from six to, say, 3.5, is easier for family planning programmes, than from 3.5, to the target of two. "It may be that two children will never be the norm," the report notes.
One factor contributing to future growth is age structure. A CAPMAS study shows that 23 per cent of the population are aged 10 years and below. Youthful age structures generally promise future population growth, even when fertility rates fall below replacement levels, according to another PRB study. Women today are having fewer children than their mothers, but there are more young men and women entering their child-bearing years, which creates a momentum for growth and an enormous workforce in the near future, for which Egypt is not prepared.
"To tackle the population problem, we should not just focus on reducing growth," notes Sanaa El-A'asar, secretary-general of the non-governmental Cairo Family Planning Association. "We should also address demographic distribution and characteristics. Human resources could be a great asset if capable of production, which is not currently the case."
El-A'asar has a point. Elwi says that people of working age account for 59 per cent of the population. An employee is considered "productive" if he works an average of six to nine hours a day, 22 days a month, and produces an average of $2-7 worth of products per hour. If Egypt's labour force did the minimum work of six hours a day, they would bring the country a revenue of $80 billion a year.
Although emigration from rural to urban areas has decreased by one per cent, emigration from the city to the countryside should be encouraged, Elwi notes. Cairo remains the most overpopulated city, home to 11.2 per cent of the total population.
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