More mouths to feed or a more productive community? Egypt's National Population Conference attempts to sort out the chicken or egg debate, Reem Leila attended Egypt's population continues to increase, and, consequently, has been blamed for just about every social and economic ill in the country. During the past 50 years, Egypt's population has more than tripled, and experts have cited this basic fact as one of the major obstacles hindering sustainable development. The issue was at the fore at the two-day National Population Conference called "Towards Life Without Suffering" held on 9 June at the Al-Azhar Conference Centre. inaugurated this second event of its kind, and was joined by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, Minister of Health and Population Hatem El-Gabali and more than 1,000 Arab and foreign representatives. Also on hand were officials from several international organisations, diplomats and aid agencies that have contributed in financing Egypt's development projects. Addressing the opening ceremony, Mubarak urged the government, the private sector and civil society to join in a nationwide campaign to increase people's awareness of the dangers of overpopulation. The media, writers and intellectuals as well as men of religion were urged to support the campaign and to take measures against what Mubarak described as a "major challenge" to the country's development. Egypt is suffering from rampant unemployment and some 40 per cent of the population live below the poverty line or $2 a day. High fertility can impose costly burdens on Egypt, hindering economic development, increasing health risks for women and children, and eroding the quality of life by reducing access to education, nutrition, employment and scarce resources such as potable water. An overpopulation crisis plan would limit each Egyptian family to two children. Improving the status of women and reducing illiteracy could also be key factors in reducing the population growth rate, Mubarak said. Every year, Abu Bakr El-Guindi, chairman of the Central Authority for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), announces the latest census figures, followed by figures indicating the effects of the population explosion on the economy. The findings of this year's annual population report, released on Monday, put Egypt's total population at 78.7 million as of May 2008. Of the total number, 74.8 million people are living in Egypt, plus an estimated 3.9 million termed temporary emigrants. According to the CAPMAS figures, women account for 48.8 per cent of the population and men 51.2 per cent. El-Guindi pointed out that rural areas of Upper Egypt form 25 per cent of Egypt's annual increase. "If the increasing rate continues -- a baby every 23 seconds, or 1.9 million every year -- this means that Egypt will reach 104 million people by 2030 and 121 million by 2050. If the national campaign for decreasing population growth does not succeed, Egypt will become home to at least 160 million people by 2050, thus severely affecting the country's growth rate," El-Guindi said. At the conference, Minister of Health and Population El-Gabali said medical services have succeeded in lowering infant mortality rates and increasing life expectancy to the levels of advanced countries. El-Gabali pointed out that Egypt's advanced health services as well as the pervious national campaign aimed at decreasing overpopulation rates had succeeded in lowering the fertility rates from 7.2 children per woman in the early 1960s to 3.4 in 1998. "The national campaign, as cited by President Mubarak during the conference, aims at reducing this percentage to 2.4 children per woman by 2017, and only two children by 2030," El-Gabali said. Nearly eight in 10 married women want no additional children or seek to delay the next child for at least two years. Yet a considerable percentage of these women do not use any contraception. A recent survey conducted by the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) said the percentage of Egyptian women of reproductive age who want to limit family size or have no more children but are not using contraception is 16 per cent. Mahmoud Farag, a member of the Cairo Demographic Centre (CDC) pointed out during the conference's civil society session that the percentage involved a great number of women and represents the target group that family planning programmes are trying to reach. "Contraceptive means are available but women are not using it enough or at all, even though both the government and women do not want more children," Farag said. The gap between stated preference and actual behaviour refers to the behaviour of women who want no more children or want to delay their next pregnancy but do not use contraception. The contraception quandary is especially high in rural Upper Egypt, where nearly a quarter of the women of reproductive age say they want no additional children or want to delay the next birth for at least two years but are not using contraception. "Accordingly, a number of Egyptian women are having more children than they consider ideal. More effort is needed to increase women's awareness of the importance of using contraceptive means to have a limited number of family members," Farag said. The people who have been born need to be fed. The average annual consumption of wheat, according to Maged Othman, a member of the National Population Council, is 180.5 kilogrammes per capita, meaning that Egypt requires nearly 15 million tonnes of wheat annually to feed its population. However, Egypt only produces 10 million tonnes, thus necessitating the import of another five million tonnes every year, and wheat costs up to LE680 per tonne. "We spend millions of pounds every year to supply bread alone, not to mention other products," Othman explained. "If the population continues to increase at this pace, we will have to produce and import double the amount of wheat we currently consume." Employment experts warn that the pace of economic growth -- at seven per cent annually -- cannot keep up with the fast pace of population growth, estimated by CAPMAS at 2.1 per cent annually. As the population soars, so too does the labour force, said to be increasing by 2.6 per cent annually. Over half a million people reach employment age each year, but the economy is growing too slowly to provide them with jobs. "To tackle the population problem, we should not just focus on reducing growth," noted Prime Minister Nazif at the conference. "We should also address demographic distribution and characteristics. Human resources could be a great asset if capable of production, which is not currently the case." Nazif said people of working age account for 59 per cent of the population. An employee is considered "productive" if he works an average of six to nine hours a day, 22 days a month, and produces an average of $2-7 worth of products per hour. If Egypt's labour force did the minimum work of six hours a day, they would bring the country a revenue of $80 billion a year. Although emigration from rural to urban areas has decreased by one per cent, emigration from the city to the countryside should be encouraged, Nazif notes. Cairo remains the most overpopulated city, home to 11.2 per cent of the total population. Addressing the conference at the end of its second day, El-Gabali said a national conference will be held every two years to follow up the implementation and results of the national campaign to reduce overpopulation rates. Media campaigns are to work on persuading women to leave at least 3-5 years between each baby, and convincing the public to balance between their personal priorities and that of the state's. According to El-Gabali the National Population Council will continue to be affiliated to the cabinet so as to have the authority to supervise the campaign which adopts the concept of "a small family for a better life". El-Gabali recommended reducing levels of population growth, a basis upon which the government should act in the next few years.
