Officials say reducing population growth remains one of the most daunting challenges the government faces On 27 March the Ministry of Health and National Population Council conducted preliminary meetings ahead of a major conference on population scheduled to take place in early June. Health Ministry officials met with representatives from Egypt's 27 governorates as well as religious figures to discuss the problems posed by Egypt's burgeoning population, and possible solutions, reports Reem Leila. The meeting was intended to pave the way for the June conference, at which a five-year strategy aimed at reducing rates of population growth is expected to be announced. The National Population Council's Hussein Abdel-Aziz stressed the government's commitment to reducing growth rates, arguing that raising consciousness of the benefits of smaller families, particularly among rural populations, would be a key plank in government policy. In a joint project between the Ministry of Health and the council more than 1,500 people have already been trained to spearhead the campaign at a grassroots level. Their work will be supplemented by media campaigns, and by better distribution of the free contraceptives provided to women at family reproductive health clinics. Abdel-Aziz also revealed that the possibility of fining families that have more than three children had been raised but underlined that the issues "had not yet been discussed with the concerned authorities". With 79.4 million people, Egypt ranks alongside Turkey and Iran as one of the region's most populous states. In 1897 Egypt's population was 10 million. Between 1897 and 1947 it increased at the relatively sedate rate of 1.3 per cent annually. Between 1950 and 1970 the increase almost doubled to 2.5 per cent, then subsequently fell to 2.2 per cent, but by 1980 had once again risen, to 2.6 per cent. Growth rates began to slow down again in 1985 and currently stand at two per cent per year. The National Population Council, says Abdel-Aziz, is determined to see the number of families with only two children increase to 75 per cent of the total by 2012, up from the current level of 60 per cent. In order to achieve this goal it will expand the number of reproductive health clinics from 3830 to 6,136, allowing an estimated 300,000 more women to benefit from the services offered. But in addition to reducing population growth rates, he said, much work needs to be done in encouraging a more even geographic spread of the current population. "It is also important to establish an evaluation system in order to follow up on the implementation of the national strategy and to rectify any shortcomings. Without a monitoring system nothing will be achieved," he adds. Maged Othman, head of the Cabinet's Information and Decision Support Centre, told attendees at the meeting that social and economic development can be guaranteed only when national income increases by at least three times population growth rates. "The main challenge currently facing the government is how to control population growth rate. Accordingly, a national strategy has been created to help decrease population growth rate." If population growth rates continue at current levels, Egypt's population will reach 87.9 million by 2015 and will approach 100 million by 2021. High levels of population density have led to severe competition over land usage. In 1996 Egypt's cultivated land was six million feddans. While it has now reached eight million feddans, Othman points out that the total area of cultivated land has not increased in proportion with population growth rates. Abu Bakr El-Guindi, head of the Central Authority of Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), drew attention to the impact of population growth on public utilities and services. Per capita shares of potable water, electricity, health, education and transportation have all seen major reductions. Egypt's share of Nile water has been fixed at 55 billion cubic metres for the last 50 years. In 1995 each individual's share of water was 927 cubic metres annually. By 2000 the figure had fallen to 850 cubic metres, and five years later to 771 cubic metres. Should current trends continue Egyptians will have access to just 590 cubic metres by 2026.
